Preliminary studies on risk from climate change and its governing

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Preliminary studies on risk from climate change
and its governing WU Shaohong
(wush_at_igsnrr.ac.cn) ZHANG Yuehong, YIN Yunhe, DAI
Erfu June, 2007 Beijing
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I. Climate change and its impacts II. Risks
from climate change III. Strategies of governing
on climate change risks
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• I. Climate change and its impacts
• Climate change is obviously emerging to us.
• According to the fourth assessment report (AR4)
  of IPCC, temperature rising during last 100 years
  (19062005) is approximately 0.74?.
• Projected warming in the 21st century is likely
  to be 1.16.4 ?.

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• I. Climate change and its impacts
• Under the climate change background the most
  vulnerable sectors and systems are water
  ecosystem food, fiber and forest production
  coastal and low-lying areas settlement and
  industry human health.
• The Arctic Sub-Saharan Africa Small islands
  and Asian mega-deltas are the more vulnerable
  regions

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• Observational evidences
• enlargement and increased numbers of glacial
  lakes.
• increasing ground instability in permafrost
  regions, and rock avalanches in mountain regions.
• earlier timing of spring events, such as
  leaf-unfolding, bird migration and egg-laying.
• range changes and earlier migrations of fish in
  rivers.

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Observational evidences
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• Observational evidences
• earlier spring planting of crops, and alterations
  in disturbance regimes of forests.
• human health were affected, such as heat-related
  mortality in Europe.
• increased run-off and earlier spring peak
  discharge in many glacier- and snow-fed rivers
• Sea-level rise and human development increasing
  damage from coastal flooding in many areas

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• Projected future impacts
• Fresh water resources
• By mid-century, annual average river runoff and
  water availability increase by 10-40 at high
  latitudes and in some wet tropical areas, and
  decrease by 10-30 over some dry regions at
  mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics, some of
  which are presently water stressed areas.
• Drought-affected areas are likely to increase in
  extent. Heavy precipitation events will augment
  flood risk.

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Projected future impacts Fresh water resources
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• Projected future impacts
• Ecosystems
• Approximately 20-30 of plant and animal species
  assessed so far are likely to be at increased
  risk of extinction if increases in global average
  temperature exceed 1.52.5ºC.
• The progressive acidification of oceans due to
  increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide is expected
  to have negative impacts on marine shell forming
  organisms (e.g., corals) and their dependent
  species.

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• Projected future impacts
• Food, fiber and forest production
• Globally, the potential for food production is
  projected to increase with increases in local
  average temperature over a range of 13ºC, but
  above this it is projected to decrease.
• At lower latitudes, especially seasonally dry and
  tropical regions, crop productivity is projected
  to decrease for even small local temperature
  increases (12ºC), which would increase risk of
  hunger.

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• Projected future impacts
• Coastal systems and low-lying areas
• Coasts exposed to increasing risks, including
  coastal erosion, due to climate change and
  sea-level rise.
• Many millions more people are likely to be
  flooded every year due to sea-level rise by the
  2080s.

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• Projected future impacts
• Industry, Settlement and Society
• The most vulnerable coastal and river flood
  plains, closely linked with climate-sensitive
  resources, in areas prone to extreme weather
  events, especially rapid urbanization
• Poor communities can be especially vulnerable, in
  particular those concentrated in high-risk areas

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• Projected future impacts
• Human health
• Climate are likely to affect the health through
• increases in malnutrition and consequent
  disorders
• increased deaths, disease and injury due to heat
  waves, floods, storms, fires and droughts
• the increased burden of diarrhoeal disease and
• the altered spatial distribution of some
  infectious disease vectors.

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• Projected future impacts
• Main impacts on regions
• Africa water resources crisis
• Asia glacier retreat, flood, drought and coastal
  inundation
• Australia New Zealand ecosystem damage
• Europe heat wave threaten and health affected

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• Projected future impacts
• Main impacts on regions
• Latin America ecosystem evolution
• North America heat wave threaten and health
  damage
• Polar areas reductions in thickness and extent
  of glaciers and ice sheet
• Small islands sea level rise and inundation

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• Climate change in China
• For the last century
• The average air temperature has increased
  0.50.8ºC,a little higher than the global
  average
• The annual precipitation has no significant
  trend, but regional precipitation fluctuated
  largely, for example, 2040mm/10a decreasing in
  North China, while 2060mm/10a increasing in
  South and Southeast China

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Climate change in China
surface temperature change

• slightly increase in 2020
• increase of 2-5 in 2050
• increase of 6-14 in 2100

Precipitation change
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• Climate change in China
• Main impacts
• enhanced agricultural production instability
• seriously water resources scarcity
• significantly glaciers retreating
• threatening of sea level rise on coastal
  development
• increase risks to major projects
• For example

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• Climate change in China
• Main impacts
• Agriculture 510 decrease in productivity,
  change of crop allocation and structure,
  cultivation and crop species, and increase of
  cost and investment for fertilizer, pesticide and
  herbicide input.
• Contradiction between supply and demand of water
  resources water shortage in North China and
  Northwest China glaciers lost about a half in
  2050s.

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• Climate change in China
• Main impacts
• Sea level rise 1.0-2.5 mm/a during the last 50
  years, and 12-50 cm in 2050, and 9-107 cm near
  the Zhujiang, Changjiang and Huanghe deltas.
• Some forests would change their distribution and
  suitable areas Cold temperate coniferous forest
  area declined temperate plain shifted northward
  and area reduced temperate desert extended
  eastward.

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• Climate change in China
• Main impacts
• Increasing strong precipitation in the upper
  Changjiang River inducing geologic disasters,
  such as landslide, debris flow.
• The minimum and maximum temperatures increased
  about 3.13.4ºC and 1.83.2ºC respectively in
  2050 in the Tibetan Plateau, threatening the
  Qinghai-Tibet railway.

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I. Climate change and its impacts II. Risk
from climate change III. Strategies of governing
on climate change risks
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• Crop yields and commodity prices
• Irrigation demands
• Pests and weed

Agriculture risks

• Change in forest composition and geographic
  range
• Forest health and productivity
• Forest fire

Forest risks

• Changes in water supply and timing
• Water quality
• Glacier thaw
• Draught and flood

Water-related risks
Climate Changes

• Erosion of beaches
• Inundation of coastal wetlands
• Typhoon, storm surge, tsunami disaster
• Seawater intrusion

Coastal Area risks
Global warming

• Shifts in ecological zones
• Loss of habitat and species
• damages in ecosystem structure and function
• Marine life influenced by ocean acidity

Ecosystem risks
Extreme weather events

• Desertification, soil erosion and salinization
• Sandstorm
• Urban settlement environment (heat island effect,
• sewage and garbage treatment)

Environmental risks
Sea Level Rise

• Weather-related mortality/heat stress
• Infectious diseases
• Air quality-induced respiratory effects
• Marine biotoxins

Health risks

• Large-scale hydroproject (Three Gorges Dam,
• South-to-North Water Transfers )
• transportation infrastructure (Qinghai-Tibet
  Railway )
• Port Facility
• Storage of dangerous Goods and nuclear facilities

Critical Infrastructures risks
Adapted from EPA and IPCC assessment and The
National Assessment Report on Climate Change
(China)

• manufacture
• Tourism industry
• Financial and Insurance industry
• Energy market

Climate-sensitive Industries risks
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• Crop yields and commodity prices
• Irrigation demands
• Pests and weed

Agriculture risks

• Change in forest composition and geographic
  range
• Forest health and productivity
• Forest fire

Forest risks

• Changes in water supply and timing
• Water quality
• Glacier thaw
• Draught and flood

Water-related risks

• Erosion of beaches
• Inundation of coastal wetlands
• Typhoon, storm surge, tsunami disaster
• Seawater intrusion

Coastal Area risks

• Shifts in ecological zones
• Loss of habitat and species
• damages in ecosystem structure and function
• Marine life influenced by ocean acidity

Ecosystem risks

• Desertification, soil erosion and salinization
• Sandstorm
• Urban settlement environment (heat island effect,
• sewage and garbage treatment)

Environmental risks

• Weather-related mortality/heat stress
• Infectious diseases (Schistosomiasis, Dengue
  fever, Malaria,
• Epidemic Hemorrhagic Fever )
• Air quality-induced respiratory effects
• Marine biotoxins

Health risks

• Large-scale hydroproject (Three Gorges Dam,
• South-to-North Water Transfers )
• transportation infrastructure (Qinghai-Tibet
  Railway )
• Port Facility
• Storage of dangerous Goods and nuclear facilities

Critical Infrastructures risks
Simple
Complex

• manufacture
• Tourism industry
• Financial and Insurance industry
• Energy market

Climate-sensitive Industries risks
uncertainty
ambiguity
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I. Climate change and its impacts II. Risk
from climate change III. Strategies of governing
on climate change risks
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III. Strategies of governing on climate change
risks Adaptation is one of the main strategies to
cope with climate change and its adverse impacts.
Adaptation is a system to adjust to climate
change (including climate variability and
extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take
advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the
consequences. Three main aspects soft
measures, hard measures and science/technology
researches.
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Thank you for your attention