Energy Options and Health Benefits for China Case Study

1
Energy Options and Health Benefits for China Case
Study

• LEI Yu, HE Kebin, CHEN Dan, ZHANG Qiang
• PAN Xiaochuan, ZHANG Yansheng
• Dept. of Environmental Science and Engineering,
• Tsinghua University
• School of Public Health, Peking University
• Better Air Quality 2006
• Yogyakarta, Indonesia Dec. 13th 15th, 2006

2
Background

• US EPAs Integrated Environment Strategy (IES)
  program
• An international capacity building program
• http//www.epa.gov/ies/
• Currently ongoing in China, South Korea, India
  and Mexico
• IES researches in China
• Shanghai Case Study, 1999-2001
• Beijing Case Study, 2002-2005
• National Assessment, 2003-2006
• National Co-control Research, 2005-2006
• Address research in co-benefit of energy-related
  policies

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Work scope

• Purpose To simulate energy consumption and
  emission of air pollutants up to 2030
• Spatial scope China National Level
• Time step 2000 (Base Year), 2005, 2010, 2020 and
  2030
• EI sectoral scope power, industry, domestic,
  transportation and biomass burning
• Pollutants SO2, NOx, CO, VOC, BC, OC and CO2
• Health endpoints long-term mortality, outpatient
  visits for all cause, hospital admissions for
  respiratory disease and for cardiovascular disease

4
Methodology framwork
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Scenario development

• Business As Usual (BAU)
• Sustainable Energy Scenarios towards 2020
  developed by ERI
• Long term environmental program by government

• Pollution Control Policies (PCP)
• Rural cooking condition improvement
• Switching fuel of boilers and stoves
• Two control zone policy
• Strict vehicle emission standard
• Industry PM control

• Climate Change Policies (CCP)
• Households energy saving
• Industry energy saving
• Building energy saving
• Vehicle energy efficiency improvement

• Scenario Definition
• Business As Usual (BAU)
• Scenario I (BAUCCP)
• Scenario II (BAUCCPPCP)

6
Modeling results energy
Primary energy requirements, by scenarios
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Emission Summary

• Emissions in 2001

• Emissions Trends

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Sectoral distribution
SO2
NOx
Largest emission reduction
CO
VOC
9
Sectoral distribution
OC
BC
Largest emission reduction

• Most effective abatement technology/policy
• SO2 FGD
• NOx SCR
• CO, BC OC advanced stoves or gasification
  (especially, in rural)

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Air quality SO2
2001
2010BAU 2010S1
2010S2
2030BAU
2030S1
2030S2
11
Air quality NOx
2001
2010BAU 2010S1
2010S2
2030BAU
2030S1
2030S2
12
Air quality PM2.5
2001
2010BAU 2010S1
2010S2
2030BAU
2030S1
2030S2
13
Health benefits
Monetary health benefits
Health endpoints reduction
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Acknowledgement

• U.S.EPAs IES program for founding support
• ERIs 2020 China Sustainable Energy Scenario
  program for energy data
• U.S.DOEs Dr. David Streets for TRACE-P Emission
  Inventory
• U.S.EPAs Dr. Carey Jang for technical support on
  Medels-3/CMAQ
• Abts Mr. Aaron Hallberg for technical support on
  BenMAP model