'Cost%20effective%20measures%20and%20planning%20of%20traffic%20safety

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'Cost effective measures and planning of traffic
safety

• Planning philosophies and preferences
• Use of CBA in Sweden/Europe
• Physical planning
• Four step principal
• Speed Limit Review

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Planning philosophies

• More complex
• Rail investments road development
• Industries and villages
• Conditions for living and welfare
• Caused by many individual reasons and decisions
  not by strategic planning

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Processes of decisions

• Extreme 1 Rational perspective
• Extreme 2 Wagging the way forward
• Visionary Main problem and future status in
  clear picture (Vision Zero)
• Planning Defining goals from problems to solve.
  Goals define valuations.
• Consensus oriented Acceptance through
  discussions with parties goals, problems

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Visionary Visionary Planning Planning Planning
Consensus Consensus Consensus Visionary
European cities use of different decision models.
Source EU project PROSPECTS Consider this!
Russia model today and in the future? Russia and
Tatarstan/Kazan?
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Welfare preferences5 children have found a
puppet in a basement.
Consider this! Who should have the puppet?

• 1) He/she fixed the key and that made it possible
  to get into the basement. Compensation after
  work/Aristoteles
• 2) He/she is the strongest of them all and if
  he/she dont get the puppet she will start a
  fight, which she probably will win. Negotiation
  positioning/Hobbes
• 3) He/she spotted the puppet first and thats why
  she must have it. Practical philosofic
  arguments/Locke, Nozick
• 4) It means most for he/she, because the
  collection will be completed then. Utility
  maximization principle
• 5) He/she is underprivileged and has no puppet at
  all. Maximize-Minimize principle/Rawls

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Cost Effective Measures and Planning of Traffic
Safety in Sweden

• Beauty Contest!
• Cost Benefit Analysis Method
• Four step principal
• Physical planning
• Review of Speed Limits in Sweden

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Goals in transport policy (1)

• The overall goal of transport policy in
  accordance with the Swedish Parliaments decision
  in 1998
• to ensure a socio-economically efficient
  transport system that is sustainable in the long
  term for individuals and the business community
  throughout the country.

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Goals in transport policy (2)

• This goal is divided into six subsidiary goals
• An accessible transport system The transport
  system is to be designed so as to meet the basic
  transport needs of individuals and the business
  community.
• High transport quality The design and function
  of the transport system is to permit a high level
  of transport quality for individuals and the
  business community.
• Positive regional development The transport
  system should promote a positive regional
  development, both by evening out differences in
  the potential of various parts of the country to
  develop, and by counteracting the drawbacks of
  long transport distances.

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Goals in transport policy (3)

• This goal is divided into six subsidiary goals
• Safe traffic The long-term goal for road traffic
  safety is for nobody to be killed or seriously
  injured as a result of traffic accidents. The
  design and operation of the road transport system
  should be brought into line with the requirements
  that this goal entails.
• A good environment The design and performance of
  the transport system should be adapted to the
  requirements for a good and healthy living
  environment for everyone, where natural and
  cultural environments are protected against
  damage. Good management of land, water, energy
  and other natural resources is to be promoted.
• A gender-equal road transport system The road
  transport system is to be designed to fulfil the
  transport needs of both women and men. Women and
  men are to be offered an equal opportunity to
  influence the creation of the transport system,
  its design and management, and their values are
  to be equally important.

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Since 1997

• In October 1997 the Swedish Parliment adopted a
  Vision Zero approach as a basis for Swedens
  long-term road safety objectives.

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Beauty Contest!

• The most effect per invested capital
• killed and seriously injured persons / investing
  capital cost (euro)
• Priority to maximize number of saved persons for
  a given budget.
• Effects and impacts have been collected and
  documented in a knowledge based document used by
  all planning in road sector.
• Equivalent for other transport mode system

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Estimate Effect examples

• Speed reduction - (speed after/speed before)4,5.
  If speed is reduced from 100 km/h to 90 km/h it
  will give about 38 reductions for expected
  fatalities.
• A pedestrian sidewalk can give somewhere between
  40-80 percent reduction, depending on if the
  sidewalk is on both sides of the road or on one
  side if its completely separated from vehicles
  or partly separated.
• Steel guard rails and/or removing obstacles from
  roadside can reduce the severity of accident
  outcome with 15-60.

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Estimate effects example

• Pedestrian crosswalks are estimated to about
  20-30 , with island and footpath extension and
  fences up to 50.
• Medians give a reduction for pedestrian with
  about 20-25 and for head on collisions almost
  100.
• Improved visibility and guidance, including
  illumination is estimated to give an accident
  reduction about 20-30. Illumination can even
  give a bigger reduction, up to 65, if a black
  spot is found where accidents appear in dark
  hours.
• Important that the situation in the specific
  village under investigation is taken into
  consideration when estimating the effects.

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Estimate investment costs

• Calculate construction costs per unit of typical
  road construction works
• Calculate costs for the designed modules
• Determinate costs for maintenance and costs for
  individual measures, land aquisation, ..

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Presentation about the CostBenefit
Analysis for the Road-Safety-Measure project

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CostBenefit Analysis

• Weighing the total expected costs against the
  total expected benefits of one or more actions in
  order to choose the best or most profitable
  option

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HEATCO

• Developing Harmonised European Approaches for
  Transport Costing and Project Assessment.
• Project in 6 frame programme 2002-2006.
• Project owner European Commission, DGTREN
• Final version report 17 maj 2006.
• Consortium
• IER University of Stuttgart Tyskland, University
  of Bath UK, EIT University of Las Palmas Spain,
  COWI Denmark, BUTE Hungary, ISIS Italy, Ecoplan
  Schweiz, TNO Dutch Nederland, VTI Sweden, SWECO
  Norway, ITS Leeds UK, Herry Consult Germany, NTUA
  Greece and Sudop Tjeckien.

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• Evaluation methodes of projects with several
  countries involved
• Evaluation of EU fonds projects
• Harmonizing of assessment with one framework.
  (Some countries without consistent method).
• Purpose Guidelines based on criterias
  socioeconomic efficiency, open and clear studies,
  and support from member countries decision
  makers.

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Decision criterias

• NPV (net present value) (positiverecommend)
• BCR (benefit cost ratio) (gt0 recommend)
• RNPSS (ratio of NPV and public sector support)
  (gt1recommend, valid for priorities with limited
  budget)
• FYRR (first year rate of return) valid for
  decison of optimal opening year for a project.

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• Real changes during project lifetime years
• Factor prices/market prices
• No monetized effects
• Lifetime period
• Risk and uncertainty
• Discounting
• Allocation of effects
• Marginal Cost of Public Funds

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• Values of Time
• Values of risk and accidents
• Noice
• Air pollutions
• Climate gases
• Other specific situations of environmental
  aspects
• Construction cost
• Planning cost Only costs after decision made
• Land use costs land value, cost for buying
  process.
• Cost for trafficants during activities
  (Trafficant extra cost) Estimate effect and
  value as ordinary time value
• Maintenance costs

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Accident data

• We assume that reported fatalities are probably
  most
• accurate. With the figures of fatalities as a
  starting point
• one could expect the number of severe injured to
  be
• about 3 times the fatalities and light injured
  and damage
• only about 8 times the fatalities

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Accident cost in European countries related to
GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
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Consider this!!

• A positive CBA-ratio is an information to the
  decision maker that the project is positive for
  the society.
• The non monetized effects can on the other hand
  be positive (better) or negative (worse) for the
  society.
• How to prioritize between investment package A,
  B, C and D?

Non monetized effect better Non monetized effect worse
CBA Positive A C
CBA Negative B D
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Typical costs - if made right from the beginning
Current costsin EURO Costs for highest safety Increase Effectiveness
Road 1500 1,515 (barriers) 1 90
Vehicle 20,000 20,002 (SBR) 0.01 20
Vehicle 20,000 20,020 (alcohol) 0.1 20
Vehicle 20,000 20,200 (speed) 1 20
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MID-BARRIERS / CENTRE GUARD RAILS

• A centre guard rail prevents head-on collisions,
  thereby making a rural road of standard width
  considerably safer.
• Appr. 1000 km in 2004
• Goal 2000 km in 2007
• Test started in 1998
• with 6 projects
• AADT 4000 - 22000

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What purpose have socioeconomic analysis and
calculations had so far, and how should it be
tomorrow?

• Its obvious that decisions divert from results.
  This goes for beneficial and non-beneficial
  projects!
• Rail tunnel in Malmoe (NPV/Clt0)
• Road plans in Stockholm (NPVlt0)
• A number of rail projects (bothnia stretch,
  Hallands tunnel) (NPV/C lt 0)
• Bypass Sveg (NPV/C 6)
• Russia projects?

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Why is it like that? That decisions divert from
results?

• Building Monument Monument thinking allied with
  happy calculations (too low costs and
  overindulgence of benefits in relation to facts)
  make it easier to get decisions through. (english
  channel, big belt bridge, ..)
• Distribution of benefits and costs, and different
  groups of interests power on decisionmaking. A
  concentrated group who gain from a project that
  have wide distribution of costs lobbyism have
  good chance to success.
• Paradigm conflicts Dont believe that
  infrastructure improvements have great importance
  for socio economic development by summing up the
  effects of time, accidents, envronments effects
  values.
• Unclear what calculations include and exclude
  Regionaleconomic effects and distributional
  effects. Can a region that are left behind be
  helped better?

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How should it be from now on?

• Remember that CBA is one paper for decision and
  not a decision.
• A well done CBA is a very important paper for
  decision.
• Old habit thinking can be revealed (more safety
  is always better than less??).
• Monument building decrease. Public interest more
  critical to decisions.
• Evaluate difficult effects that are nonmonetized
  with the total of excess or deficit.
• Consider this for Russia Socioeconomic
  evaluation should be made in all studies
  (feasibility etc).

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Review of the Multimodal Appraisal System in
Sweden
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Use of CBA in Sweden/Europe

• Swedish transport policy is guided by an overall
  goal, to ensure a socio-economically efficient
  transport system that is sustainable in the long
  term for individuals and the business community
  throughout the country

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Goals in transport policy The overall goal of
transport policy is divided into six subsidiary
goals

• Accessible transport system
• High transport quality
• Safe traffic
• Good environment
• Positive regional development
• Gender-equal transport system

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Political aims
Directive
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The Four Step Principle
Measures that affect transport needs and choice
of mode of transport
Possible measures step 1
Short-comings/ Needs
Balancing and prioritising measures with
different effects, costs and time perspectives
Measures that lead to more efficient utilisation
of the existing road network
Possible measures step 2
Road improvements and minor conversions
Possible measures step 3
New investments and major conversions
Possible measures step 4
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The use of Cost Benefit Analysis at SRA
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The Planning Procedure in three levels

• Planning in a strategically level.
• Concerning all traffic modes road, railway, air
  and shipping
• System analysis of the road network.Improvement
  of the road network in a large scale
• Road projects.Individual actions to the roads

CBA is used in all three levels
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Factors to CBA

• Valued Impacts
• Travel time
• Vehicle costs
• Traffic Safety
• Environmental issues
• Maintenance costs
• Noise

Impacts not to be settled
Valued Impacts

• Estimated Impacts
• Barrier impacts

- Environmental protection
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Foundation of decisions
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Transport demand forecasting models

• Overall assumptions now and in the future
• National institute Models for national long
  term
• for statistik etc. economic forecast
• - EMEC - rAps

- Population - Business sector, export and
import - Employment, incoms - Infrastructure -
Car ownership - GDP-growth - Taxation, charges,
regulation

• SAMGODS The Swedish model system for freight
  transports
• Foreign trade
• VTI/TPR
• STAN (system optimizing)
• SAMKALK GODS

• SAMPERS The Swedish model system for passenger
  traveling
• Car ownership
• Regional travel (5 models)
• National travel
• International travel
• EMME/2 (user optimizing)
• ACCESSIBILITY SAMKALK
• MODUL

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Use of SAMGODS / SAMPERS

• Strategic infrastructure planning for the
  planning period 2004-15
• Freight transport forecast for 2010 and for 2020
• Freight corridor study
• Transport mileage forecast for 2020 analys
  enviroment impacts
• Impacts from congestion charges Stockholm
• Bothnia railway

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Effect profile Summary of impacts according to
the Transport policy
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Effect profile - continued ..
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Fulfilment of transport policy
Transport policy Goals and aims
Contribution to the goals ?
Impacts
Action to the road network
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Summary and conclusions

• CBA is a useful method to the long-term planning,
  but be useful in some other cases of planning
  matters.
• CBA is one of many foundations for
  decision-making.
• CBA doesnt present the whole truth.
• CBA could in some cases be misused by the
  decision-makers.
• CBA is used more a less for investments only
• Need to extend the use of CBA for other actions.
• Lack of measure / effect correlation for some of
  actions.

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Physical Transport Planning Process
GAP ANALYSIS
INITIAL STUDY
FEASIBILITY STUDY
DESIGN PLAN
BUILDING DOCUMENT
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The four-step principle
1
3
Transport needs and means of transport
Improvements and minor conversions
2
4
More efficient use of the road network
New investments and major conversions
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The four steps

1. Measures that effect transport needs and choice
   of mode of transport
2. Measures that lead to more efficient utilisation
   of the existing road network
3. Road improvements and minor conversions
4. New investments and major conversions

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Work method
Measures that affect transport needs and choice
of mode of transport
Possible measures step 1
Short-comings/ Needs
Balancing and prioritising measures with
different effects, costs and time perspectives
Measures that lead to more efficient utilisation
of the existing road network
Possible measures step 2
Road improvements and minor conversions
Possible measures step 3
New investments and major conversions
Possible measures step 4
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Example
E4 Ljungby

• Choise of measures
• Immidiate Lower speed 110 to 80 km/h
• Short perspective Midbarrier 21
• Long perspective Motorway 22

Lower traffic intensity ?
No measure found
Severe head on coll-isions
Traffic regulation ?
Lowered speed
Minor road construction measures ?
Construction midbarrier 21
Major road construction measures?
Construction motorway 22
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Review and Implementation of new Speed Limits
Sweden 2008 2009
incorporated to present speed limits 30 50
70 90 110
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New Speed Limits

• Parliament decision may 2007 Road
  Administration, Regional Governments and
  Municipalities have the right to decide on speed
  limits from 30 to 120 km/h with succession of 10
  km/h step.
• Government decide in traffic regulation so Road
  Administration can implement speed limits 80, 100
  and 120 km/h.
• The new regulation starts from 2 may 2008.
• General Director of Road Administration decide on
  guidelines for the implementation of new speed
  limits, December 2007.

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In a long term perspective shall

• a consecutive adjustment of speed limits
  towards vision zero and that demand on
  accessibility, good environment, positive
  regional development and an equal transport
  system been taken in consideration.
• Governmental Proposition of New Speed Limits

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New Speed Limits Why ???

• Present system from 1971 (1955 urban areas)
• Inconsistency of decisions during that time
  period.
• Speed limits have not been considered from humans
  ability to handle physical violence.
• New transport policy goals have been decided.
• From safety- and environmental perspective, is
  20-step to big.
• Road transport system can be utilized more
  efficiently with respect to all transport policy
  goals.
• Acceptance for new speed limits should increase.
• New road types since 1971.

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How shall this be implemented??

• Road Administration review of roads outside urban
  areas (mostly 90 and 110 roads)
• Municipalities implement new speed limits within
  planned urban areas.
• Regional governments adjust local speed limit
  decisions and private roads.
• Review in close coperation with new long term
  plan 2010 2020.

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(When) Time schedule state roads
Phase 1 - National roads Autumn 2008 European road and major other roads
- Motorway 120 km/h Autumn 2008 European road and major other roads
Phase 2 - Other major roads Spring 2009 Secondary roads
Phase 3 Other roads Autumn 2009 Other roads
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Criteria for speed limit decision

• Accessibility road connections important to
  keep or preserve higher speed limit, is road
  connections important for commuting, extended
  local labour market functionality, high share of
  long distance transports, rural areas with
  longer transports in sparsely populated areas or
  high importance for freight transports.
• Traffic Safety physical damage violence on
  human being
• Environment harmonically speed limits, national
  Carbondioxide (CO2) goals, local concentrations
  of pollutions and noice level. Increased
  externalities on a certain road network can be
  compensated of reductions on other road network.
• Trafficant acceptance Fare, logical, clear and
  self explanatory speed limits

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• Consequences
• Reduction of killed persons annually 10 persons
• Carbondioxide (CO2) reduction 10000 ton/year
• Travel time increase with 2 miljon hour/year cars
  and buses
• Indifferent transport time for heavy lorries.
• Valuable socioeconomic benefits annually 6 MECU
  (Milj Euros)
• But 700000 ton/year CO2 and 150 saved life
• Just follow the present speed limits

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• City streets
• Schools
• Mixed trafficants

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• Streets on main net
• Pedestrian ways
• Bicycles on road
• Walking strips

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• Urban areas
• Major Traffic links
• Few/distant intersections
• Separated pedestrian roadway

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• Two lane roads with high risk accidents with
  killed and severly damage
• (Today 90-road without mid barrier fence, non
  satisfied standard on side areas)

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Road important for business and industry
transports today 70 - road
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Roads with rumble strip barrier and placed
streches for passing (21) lt 4000 vehicle/day
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Normal speed limit with mid barrier fence
Separated lanes with mid barrier fence (21, 22,
11) with good standard on road side areas
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Motorways
Normal 110 km/hour
120 km/hour with high safety standard and
relatively low traffic volume
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Schematic review new speed limits in Sweden 2008
Higher Lower
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Communication with partners Meetings,
suggestions, discussions
Police Swedish spedition org NTF (traffic
safety org) Swedish Municipalities and Health
care Taxi/Cab org Bus org Motormännen/Org for
trafficants Regional governments Traffic
education org . . . Car testing institute . .
. Municipalities . . .
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More Information

• Per-j.eriksson_at_vv.se
• Linda.bengtsson_at_external.vv.se
• Elena.vikstrom_at_vv.se
• www.vv.se/nyahastighetsgranser

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Questions?