Integrated Ecosystem Assessment of the North Sea

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Integrated Ecosystem Assessment of the North Sea

• Keith Brander

This presentation is available from
http//www.ices.dk/globec/data/presentations/
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• We do not need to reinvent the wheel(but we
  might want to improve it a bit)

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Metric used in this study
Biotic metrics
Abiotic metrics
Human metrics
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• approach combines empirical, reductionist and
  holistic methods
• based on the integrated analysis of 55 primary
  and secondary biotic, abiotic, and human
  variables over a 43 year period
• integrated analysis shows that the ESS ecosystem
  has changed states from a community dominated by
  large-bodied demersal fish to one dominated by
  small demersal and pelagic fish species and
  benthic macro-invertebrates.

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• dynamic inter-play between ocean physics, biology
  and exploitation presents a more realistic causal
  scenario than any single component hypothesis,
  such as fishing pressure alone.
• forces contributing to the stability of the
  alternate state include both top-down processes
  involving strong trophic interactions initiated
  at the apex predator level and bottom-up
  processes involving energy flow and nutrient
  cycling that have fundamentally altered the
  matter and energy flow patterns in the ESS
  ecosystem
• higher-order variables are identified as early
  warning indicators, sensitive to the underlying
  structural and functional changes
• they have been determined for an adjacent system
  where systemic changes have not yet been observed
  and predict a potential collapse within a decade.
• integrated assessment of ecosystems is a great
  challenge and their management requires
  comprehension of ecological systems.

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• description alone is not sufficient to allow
  comprehension, especially if information
  overload (the disconnect between system
  description and system comprehension) is to be
  avoided and meaningful insights and strategies
  are to emerge.
• reductionistic analysis involves the dissection
  and identification of key processes or feedback
  mechanisms likely to be operative in an
  ecological system.
• however, value cannot be ascertained from
  variations in processes, as a directionality of
  time does not exist in such a perspective. In
  fact, the approach has accelerated the
  information overload experienced by all
  stakeholders.
• holistic approaches are being increasingly used
  to aid in the valuation of ecological systems as
  the directionality of time is made explicit in
  this perspective.
• we suggest that integrated assessment requires
  not only the integration of descriptive
  information, but also the integration of our
  perception of ecological systems as being both a
  whole and a part.

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An Integrated Assessment will

• Go beyond Status Reporting
• Evaluate current drivers and how they have shaped
  the present state
• Identify important interactions between
  components of the system and how these affect
  system behaviour
• Evaluate wider consequences (performance) of
  management actions
• Predict consequences of
• non-controllable factors such as climate change
• controllable factors

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Terms of Reference are to

• Hold a workshop to produce a preliminary proof
  of concept integrated ecosystem assessment for
  the North Sea.
• Compile and synthesise material from the twenty
  identified source Working Groups, which have
  been requested to provide data, information and
  indicators
• Produce summary presentations of the material as
  an overview (e.g., using methods for re-scaling
  and reducing dimensionality traffic lights,
  etc.)
• Identify gaps in the material provided and the
  subjects covered
• Review patterns and interactions among the
  indicators. Preliminary description of system
  behaviour (e.g., evidence for regime shift in
  late 1980s) and strength of attribution of causes
  of observed changes
• Comment on how to measure impacts of past
  management actions at the system level

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North Sea data available for REGNS
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Standardised anomalies of CPR, oceanographic and
fisheries data for the North Sea sorted on first
axis of variation
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The abrupt change in the North Sea in 1987-88 has
been described as a regime shift(Beaugrand
(2004) The North Sea regime shift evidence,
causes, mechanisms and consequences. Progress in
Oceanography 60 245-262)
This and the previous graph were produced by Jae
Choi DFO, Canada
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Scottish RV trawl catches since 1925(55-61oN
4oE-4oW) Beare et al. ICES CM 2003/Q24
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Terms of Reference are to

• Hold a workshop to produce a preliminary proof
  of concept integrated ecosystem assessment for
  the North Sea.
• Compile and synthesise material from the twenty
  identified source Working Groups, which have
  been requested to provide data, information and
  indicators
• Produce summary presentations of the material as
  an overview (e.g., using methods for re-scaling
  and reducing dimensionality traffic lights,
  etc.)
• Identify gaps in the material provided and the
  subjects covered
• Review patterns and interactions among the
  indicators. Preliminary description of system
  behaviour (e.g., evidence for regime shift in
  late 1980s) and strength of attribution of causes
  of observed changes
• Comment on how to measure impacts of past
  management actions at the system level

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Changes in plankton, fish distribution and
production

• (this is from a short review prepared by KB for
  the fourth IPCC Assessment based on papers
  published in Nature (2) Science (2) and elsewhere
  since 2003)
• The principal climate indicator for the N
  Atlantic, the NAO, has been rising over the past
  30 years and the surface waters of the North
  Atlantic have been warming. This has caused
  extensive changes in the planktonic ecosystem.
  Although the precise mechanisms are not fully
  understood, we can detect consequences for
  plankton production, biodiversity, species
  distribution, and fisheries production.

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High NAO brings strong, warm westerly winter
winds.This projection of future NAO state is
bad news for N Sea cod!
The relative confidence level for this simulation
is low http//www.ukcip.org.uk/resources/publicati
ons/documents/14.pdf
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