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Glenn Austin, Transition Manager

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To meet customer and partner needs for high quality, accessible, ... Katrina's Eye Forecast to. Pass over New Orleans. Forecast issued. Saturday morning Aug 27 ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Glenn Austin, Transition Manager


1
Glenn Austin, Transition Manager AMS Corporate
Forum Washington, DC March 9-10, 2006
2
Outline
  • Background
  • Current Capability
  • Examples and Feedback
  • Planned Enhancements
  • Long-term Goals
  • Opportunities

3
Background
VISION To meet customer and partner needs for
high quality, accessible, and reliable digital
weather, water, and climate services.
4
Current CapabilityCollaborative-Forecasting
Process
National Centers Model Guidance
  • Interactive
  • Collaborative
  • Information Oriented

High Resolution Grids
Local Digital Forecast Database
Field Offices
National Centers
Collaborate
Data and Science Focus
NWS Automated Products
User-Generated Products
National Digital Forecast Database
TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET.
SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES
ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40.
SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 70.
Digital
Text
Graphic
Voice
5
Current Capability
  • Fulfills NWS Strategic Goal
  • Faster access to information in more convenient
    formats through new pathways.
  • Fulfills NRC recommendation
  • Provide data and products in digital form.
  • (Fair Weather Report June 2003)

6
Current Capability
The public, emergency managers and city planners
use graphic products for detailed forecasts
  • More weather data
  • Higher resolution forecasts
  • Visual displays of probability
  • User-defined products create business
    opportunities

Different Products for Different Customers
Commercial weather companies, emergency managers,
and others use grids to generate tailored
products
TODAY...RAIN LIKELY. SNOW LIKELY ABOVE 2500 FEET.
SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE AFTERNOON 1 TO 2 INCHES
ABOVE 2500 FEET. COLDER WITH HIGHS 35 TO 40.
SOUTHEAST WIND 5 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTHWESTEARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION 70.
Radio stations public read text forecasts
7
Current CapabilityProduction
  • Experimental elements
  • QPF
  • Snow Amount
  • Sky Cover
  • Significant Wave Height
  • Operational elements
  • Maximum Temperature
  • Minimum Temperature
  • Temperature
  • Dew Point
  • Probability of Precipitation
  • Weather
  • Wind Direction
  • Wind Speed
  • Apparent Temperature
  • Relative Humidity
  • as of 3/15/06

Operational experimental elements available for
CONUS, Puerto Rico/ Virgin Islands, Hawaii,
Guam
8
Current CapabilityDistribution/Access
  • FOS Server Access Service
  • Anonymous ftp
  • Free software developed by the Meteorological
    Development Laboratory decodes GRIB2 files and
    supports conversion to netCDF or GIS shapefiles
  • Experimental XML Web Service
  • Web Graphics

9
Current CapabilityAssessment
  • Monthly, point-based verification available,
    comparing surface observations and operational
    NDFD forecast elements
  • NDFD forecast element verification scores
    comparable to accuracy of legacy NWS forecasts
    and model guidance

10
Current CapabilityArchive
  • Operational NDFD elements available from NCDC
    through
  • Hierarchical Data Storage System (HDSS)
  • http//hurricane.ncdc.noaa.gov/pls/plhas/has.dsse
    lect
  • NOAA-National Operational Model Archive and
    Distribution System (NOMADS)
  • http//nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/data.php?nameaccess
    ndfd

11
Katrinas Eye Forecast to Pass over New Orleans
Forecast issued Saturday morning Aug 27
12
Apparent TemperatureJanuary 2006
13
Public Feedback
  • As a member of a fire department and EMS service
    we must constantly be aware of weather conditions
    and how they are going to change. We use the
    graphical forecasts to prepare for changing
    weather.
  • I work as a Facilities Director for a juvenile
    correctional facility. We maintain 18 buildings
    and grounds. For scheduling of staff for snow
    removal or boiler plant shutdowns, your service
    is quite valuable.
  • I love the ability to look at a forecast for a
    particular time period. This should be extremely
    valuable for us as farmers to know predicted
    cloud cover and precip. chance during the course
    of the day.

14
Your Feedback
  1. Are you accessing or using the NDFD information?
  2. Is the information helping you achieve the
    results you need to satisfy your, or your
    customers, needs?
  3. If so, what positive impacts are you willing to
    share?
  4. If not, what else can we do to help?

15
Unmet User Needs
  • Relay critical weather information faster and
    more efficiently
  • Provide higher spatial and temporal resolution
  • Support decision-making by making data more
    interoperable
  • More hazardous weather information in digital
    formats

16
Planned Enhancements
  • Add as experimental elements during the next 12
    months
  • Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Speed Probabilities
    from the Tropical Prediction Center
  • National Convective Outlooks for Days 1 and 2
    from the Storm Prediction Center
  • Fire Weather Forecast Parameters
  • Elements for Alaska

17
Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Speed
ProbabilityHurricane Wilma Oct 2005
18
Planned Enhancements
  • Improve over the next 12 months
  • Accuracy
  • Expand Guidance
  • e.g., Gridded MOS, Downscaled GFS
  • Produce Gridded Verification
  • Generate Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis fields
  • Resolution
  • Provide NDFD forecast elements in 1-hour
    resolution for Days 1-3
  • Separate files for Days 1-3 and Days 4-7

19
Planned Enhancements
  • Improve over the next 12 months
  • Availability (reliability)
  • Transition to operational status XML web service
  • Support operational status of NWS websites (99.9
    uptime)
  • Consistency
  • Improve and standardize forecasters grid-editing
    tools
  • Modify collaboration thresholds and better
    procedures

20
Long-term Goals
  • Increase spatial and temporal resolution
  • Expand horizontal domain offshore and
    internationally
  • Add a vertical dimension (aviation)
  • Include more probabilistic information
  • Add downscaled high-impact weather information
  • Analysis of Record (objective analysis)

21
Long-term Goals
  • Establish NDGD
  • e.g., UV Index, probabilistic storm surge
  • Create GIS Map Service
  • Add NDFD to CONDUIT and NOAAPORT
  • Interface with decision-assistance tools
  • Establish one-stop shopping
  • e.g., NDFD, Warning polygons, Radar
  • Evolve into NOAA-wide Environmental Information
    Repository

22
Supply Chain
  • NWS e.g., NDFD
  • Retailers e.g., CWSA, others
  • Customers
  • Success factor Frequent exchange of data to know
    customers demands
  • e.g., types of data, formats, consumption rates,
    etc.

23
Business Opportunities
  • Like software, music, and literature, free open
    source data comes at a price (i.e., data isnt
    everything and support may be what a customer
    needs.)
  • Your value-added adaptation is often required to
    fit specific customers needs (especially large
    complex organizations with weather- sensitive
    operations.)

24
Questions, Comments?
  • glenn.austin_at_noaa.gov
  • 301-713-1858 x150
  • http//weather.gov/ndfd/
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