EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOREST FIRES OVER NORTH AMERICA AND IMPACT ON U.S. OZONE AIR QUALITY - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOREST FIRES OVER NORTH AMERICA AND IMPACT ON U.S. OZONE AIR QUALITY

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EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOREST FIRES OVER NORTH AMERICA AND IMPACT ON U.S. ... perturbation from fires doubles ... Finalize stochastic placement of the fires ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOREST FIRES OVER NORTH AMERICA AND IMPACT ON U.S. OZONE AIR QUALITY


1
EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FOREST FIRES OVER
NORTH AMERICA AND IMPACT ON U.S. OZONE AIR QUALITY
Rynda Hudman 1,2, Dominick Spracklen 1,3,
Jennifer Logan3 Loretta J. Mickley3, Maria
Val Martin3, Shiliang Wu3,4, Rose Yevich3, Alan
Cantin5, Mike Flannigan5, Tony Westerling6
Affiliations 1 School of Engineering, Harvard
2
Now at UC Berkeley
3 Now at
University of Leeds 4 Now at Michigan
Tech 5 Canadian Forest Service
6 UC Merced
2
PREDICTING FUTURE FIRE IMPACTS ON U.S. OZONE
OBSERVED AREA BURNED
WEATHER FUEL MOISTURE/ FIRE SEVERITY
AREA BURNED PREDICTION
Yearly Area Burned C1X1 C2X2 C0
GISS GCM Output (2050, A1B)
FUTURE AREA BURNED
GCAP Wu et al., 2008
Emissions
Future Fire Impacts on U.S. ozone air quality
3
PROJECTED WESTERN U.S. WILDFIRE NOx EMISSIONS
increase primarily driven by 1.8K Temperature
Increase
2050 PROJECTED WILDFIRE NOx EMISSIONS ARE 50
LARGER THAN 2000
We use fuel consumption projections for W. US
from Spracklen et al., 2009
4
PREDICTED JULY MEAN MAXIMUM 8-HR
OZONE perturbation from fires doubles
5 Years Future (2046-2050) vs. 5 Years Present
(1996-2000)
Consistent with these results, recent
observational estimates of regional enhancements
of 2 ppbv for each 1 million acres burned Jaffe
et al., 2008
5
REGRESSIONS CAPTURE VARIABILITY IN REGIONS WITH
LARGEST AREA BURNED
Major predictors in regressions 500 mb GPH
Drought Severity Rating
6
DOES RAIN OFFSET TEMPERATURE INCREASE?
GISS simulated May August 2046-2055 vs.
1996-2005
7
AREA BURNED PROJECTIONS
25 increase over Canada and Alaska w/ large
regional variability

25 increase in dry mass consumption
FUEL CONSUMPTION ESTIMATES (Maria Val Martin)
8
FUTURE WORK
Ozone enhancement from NA biomass burning 0-2 km
Simulated July 2004 mean
  • Finalize stochastic placement of the fires
  • Decide how to deal with areas that reburn and
    fire length
  • Do the runs

Hudman et al., 2009
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