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Extreme Events II: Poverty and Conflict


Algeria WI, 1954-1962; Angola WI 1961-1975; Cameroon WI 1955-1960; Eritrea ... Angola, 1995-1997, 1998-2002; Burundi, 1988-1991, 1993-2001; First Congo War, ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Extreme Events II: Poverty and Conflict

Extreme Events II Poverty and Conflict
  • November 7, 2007

  • Abstract due Friday
  • You can skip the financial crises readings -- but
    still come to class on Friday

Readings for Today
  • Collier Breaking the Conflict Trap Chapters 1
    and 6

  • Reading Quiz
  • Lecture on Conflict and poverty
  • Case Study of Darfur, Sudan

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Interstate Wars Since 1945, including wars of
independence (WI)
Africa Algeria WI, 1954-1962 Angola WI
1961-1975 Cameroon WI 1955-1960
Eritrea-Ethiopia 1998-2002 Guinea-Bissau WI
1962-1974 Kenya WI, 1952-1963 Madagascar WI
1947-48 Mozambique WI 1965-1975 Tunisia
1952-54 Asia Afghan-Soviet War 1979-1988
Cambodia 1970-1979 India-China, 1962
India-Pakistan 1971 Indonesia WI, 1945-49
Korean War 1950-53 Laos 1960-73 Vietnam WI,
Vietnam War and wars with Cambodia and China,
1946-1975, 1978-79, 1987 Latin
America Argentina-Britain (Falklands/Malvinas),
1982, plus US intervention in Dominican Republic
1965 El Salvador civil war 1979-90 Guatamala
1954 Haiti 1991-94 Nicaraguan civil war
1981-88 Panama 1989 Middle East Iran-Iraq
1980-1988 First and Second Gulf Wars 1991
2003-present Israel and its neighbors 1948-49,
1956, 1967-70, 1973, 1982-present
Civil Wars Ongoing or Ended in Last 10 Years
Africa Angola, 1995-1997, 1998-2002 Burundi,
1988-1991, 1993-2001 First Congo War, Zaire etc,
1996-1997 Second Congo War, DRC, 1998-present
Republic of the Congo, 1997, 1998 Côte d'Ivoire,
1999-2000, 2002-present Liberia, 1989-1996,
1999-present Rwanda, 1990-1997 Sierra Leone,
1991-2002 Somalian Civil War, 1991-present
Sudanese Civil War, Sudan, 1983-present Darfur
from 2003 Uganda, 1987-present Asia Cambodia,
1978-1993, 1997-1998 East Timor/Indonesia,
1975-1999 Nepalese People's War, Nepal,
1996-present Philippines (Mindanao), 1972-1996
Sri Lanka (Tamil succession), 1983-2001 Latin
America Colombia, 1964-present Guatemala,
1960-1996 Chiapas, Mexico, 1994-present Middle
East Afghanistan, 1992-2002 Kurdistan, Iraq,
Kurdish Democratic Party, Patriotic Union of
Kurdistan, 1961-1970, 1988-2003 Israel,
1967-present Yemen, 1979-1989, 1994,
2000s Former Socialist Countries First Chechen
War (1994-1996) Second Chechen War
(1999-present), Chechnya, Russia Georgian Civil
War, Abkhazia, South Ossetia in Georgia Yugoslav
wars, Yugoslavia, 1991-1995, 1996-1999, 2001
Civil War as Development in Reverse
  • Link to growth
  • The diversion of resources from investment and
    consumption to fighting
  • The destruction
  • The targeting of infrastructure (Iraq)
  • The looting of assets and crops the economics
    and political terror of insurgency
  • Human deaths
  • Refugees and internally displaced people (IDP)

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Combat deaths over half accounted for by Chinese
Civil War (1946-49) Korean War (1950-53)
Vietnam War (1955-75) Iran-Iraq War (1980-88)
and Afghan Wars (1978-2002), but.
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Humanitarian Dilemmas I
  •   Humanitarian principles and the political
    concerns of the NGOs and donors
  • Aid to those in need based on objective
  • Non-discriminatory
  • Delivery should be transparent and monitored to
    avoid diversion (Korean case again)
  • Direct contact with affected populations
  • including nutritional and other health
    assessments (weight to age, weight to height,
    height to age)

Humanitarian Dilemmas II
  • In North Korea, a hard state that consistently
    sought to limit access of monitors
  • In civil war settings
  • Central governments can oppose humanitarian
    operations seen as assisting rebels and
  • Rebels will seek to control aid flows to
    themselves and control camps
  • Is humanitarian relief possible in civil conflict
    settings? And if not, who will
  • Mediate the dispute
  • Enforce agreement
  • and provide population protection in the
  • War termination as a humanitarian issue

Conflict History
  • First Sudanese Civil War (1955-1972)
  • Second Sudanese Civil War (1983-2005)
  • 2.2 million killed, 4 million internally
    displaced people
  • 9/11 stimulates US engagement
  • Framework agreement signed in 2002 restarted both
    talks and re-opened humanitarian operations in
    the South
  • lthough access was frequently denied by both
    government and rebel forces
  • Comprehensive Peace Agreement, January 9, 2005
    federalism and revenue-sharing (oil)
    representation and application of Sharia
  • UN Mission in Sudan (7000 troops)but fighting
    has resumed
  • Darfur (2003-present)

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Ethnic Makeup
  • West Darfur, population 1.7 million
  • Ethnically mixed
  • Fur, Masalit, and Zaghawa--mostly sedentary
    cultivators--are majority
  • but with other African and Arab minorities
  • Including Arab pastoralists (camels and cattle)
  • Note predominantly Muslim not a
    religious/sectarian conflic, unlike South
  • Sustained drought and desertificantion increased
    competition for grazing rights and land,
    previously settled through traditional
  • But these mechanisms were weakened to
    disadvantage of local tribes under Nimieri
  • Common pattern of civil conflict center-local

Conflict History II
  • Communal hostilities begin in 1998-99 triggered
    by early (ie. seasonal) movements of pastoralists
    and flocks from North Darfur
  • February 2003, rebels Darfur Liberation Front,
    then Sudan Liberation Front/Army and Justice and
    Equality Movement attack government military
  • Government of Sudan responds
  • Used aerial bombardment campaigns in support of
    ground attacks on civilians by Sudanese army, but
    in conjunction with
  • Organized Arab (Jingaweit or Janjaweed) militias
    which attack villages, steal food and cattle,
    rape women, force residents to flee, and then
    destroy villages

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  • During four crucial months--October 2003 to late
    February 2004--banned humanitarian assistance
  • Therefore, not until mid-2004 with signing of
    preliminary humanitarian ceasefire does
    assistance begin in earnest
  • and interrupted periodically to this day by
  • Lack of cooperation from central government
  • Attacks and harassment of aid workers, primarily
    by government forces but also rebels (12 killed
    and five missing in second half of 2006)
  • Banditry and theft
  • Ongoing conflict, including up to the present

The Numbers
  • Total conflict-affected in Darfur and Eastern
    Chad 4 million
  • Internally-displaced 1.85 to 2 million
  • Internally-displaced in camps
  • Darfur 2 million
  • Chad 235,000
  • Excess deaths (all causes) 100,000-400,000,
    depending on time frame and method (GAO report)

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Elements of a Complex Emergency
  • Logistics, logistics, logistics
  • Food
  • World Food Program organizing appeals and
    delivery trucking, including through partners
  • US a major contributor
  • Health establishing surveillance and early
    warning system and epidemiological bulletins
  • Nutrition surveys and supplemental/therapeutic
    feeding centers acute malnutrition at 25
  • Water and sanitation wells, handpumps, but also
    direct delivery
  • Child protection and education (1,200 temporary
  • Non-food items (NFIs)
  • Livelihood programs
  • Agriculture and rehabilitation with returnees

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The Political-Military Dimension
  • April 2004 ceasefire mediated by Chad Sudanese
    government and two rebel groups (Sudanese
    Liberation Army and Justice and Equality
  • Establishes ceasefire commission with outside
  • But common pattern fight while negotiating
  • African Union Mission in Sudan (AMIS)
  • provide civilian protection, disarm Janjaweed,
    facilitate humanitarian assistance
  • Supported by US, EU and Canada
  • but overwhelmed by limited capacity (7000
    troops by May 2006) and recurrent government
    offensives (November 2004-January 2005)

The Violence Escalates
  • From August 2005, an escalation of violence
    against AMIS (African Union Mission in Sudan),
    humanitarian workers as well as civilians
  • And the spread of the conflict to Chad
  • While the political process of negotiations is
    stalled by
  • Failure of clear vision of talks what is the
    goal for Darfur?
  • Absence of outside pressure to conclude
  • Division within rebel movements themselves, which
    are competing with one another, always prolonging
    conflict (Iraq)
  • Dwindling resources for EU-AU effort

Peace Accord
  • May 2006. Peace agreement reached with one key
    faction of the SLM/A on
  • Power sharing
  • Wealth sharing
  • Security, including both disarming of Janjaweed,
    monitored and verified by African Union Force
    (enhanced May 2005) and integration of rebels
    into Sudanese army and police
  • But other factions and displaced people refuse
  • Government resumes attacks
  • Rejecting parties have regrouped--with support
    from Chad and Eritrea--into a new National
    Redemption Front
  • and fighting has begun among factions, with the
    SLM/A now siding with the government

A Complication the UN and the ICC
  • The UN Commission of Inquiry appointed under UN
    Resolution 1564 (January 2005)
  • Not genocide in international legal sense
    (although US during first Bush administration had
    said it was)
  • but argues for referral to the International
    Criminal Court which the Security Council does
    (with US abstaining because of its general
    reservations about the Court)
  • Sudan refuses, sets up its own courts to try war
    criminals internally but not surprisingly no
    trials for crimes since 2003
  • But ICC names first two suspects, February 2007
    and the GOS vehemently rejects any jurisdiction
  • cut the throat of any international officialwho
    tries to jail a Sudanese official in order to
    present him to the international justice.

Current State of Play
  • UNSC Resolution 1706 of August 2006 extends
    mandate of UNMIS
  • UNMIS is currently at 10,000, resolution calls
    for up to 20,000 more
  • AU force was threatened with expulsion in
    September, but AU extended its mandate in
  • A Hybrid UN-AU force still being built, with
    support from US but resistance from government of
  • New peace accord May 2007, involving Chad and
    Saudia Arabia
  • October 2007, more peace talks, more violence
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