B. K. Richard

1
Energy FutureA Global View,A Local Solution

• B. K. Richard
• bk_at_bishoppeakgroup.net

Reference for Apollo 17 Photo http//nssdc.gsfc.
nasa.gov/image/planetary/earth/apollo17_earth.jpg
2
Is there an energy issue? A crisis?

• What are the dominant concerns?
• What are the dominant solutions?

3
A Timely Subject?
4
Oil Prices NYMEX 20050407
http//futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CO/M
5
(No Transcript)
6
Outline

• Basic physics and Earth science
• How do we use energy?
• Where does it come from now?
• Where will it come from in the future?
• What are the issues?
• What are some solution strategies?
• Concept Energy Independent San Luis Obispo
  County
• Suggestions for Study and Research
• Questions And Discussion

Target 2050
7
Disclaimer

• The speaker has no formal training in energy
  policy or on the specific technologies involved
• At best, this is a simple, partial thread through
  a mass of complex data, ideas, and opinions
• The briefing is a systems engineering view
• Try to understand the highest leverage items or
  trends
• Attack the hard stuff and come up with a good
  enough answer
• 50-100 years into the future is a long time, but
  prediction is very difficult, especially about
  the future Niels Bohr..

8
Reminder

• Its easy to see the downside, the looming
  problem
• Its harder to see the innovation and
  breakthrough
• When there is a need, we are incredibly
  resourceful in producing solutions
• They will solve this problem

They is us, . and can we do something here?!
9
The Physics Minute

• Energy is the potential to do work
• Kinetic, potential, heat
• Work has a number of forms
• Force through a distance (moving a vehicle)
• Power over time (a light bulb)
• Pressure through a volume change (steam engine)
• Work is expressed in a number of units
• BTU, kilowatt-hours, joules, horsepower-hours,
  calories, Therms, foot-pounds, Ergs, Quads.
• We will use joules as our standard measurement
  for work, throughout.
• Well talk about the amount of work getting
  done or could be done, frequently using the term
  energy (to perform the work).

Definition One joule is the work done in moving
one newton (force needed to accelerate a kilogram
(2.2 lbs.) one meter per second per second) one
meter (a little over three feet).
For more on the physics of energy and work
http//www.physchem.co.za/Motion/Energy.htmWork
10
Earth Science Minute

• Light from the sun (power) has an intensity of
  1372 watts/meter2 at the Earths orbit
• Averaged on to the surface of the Earth 343
  watts/m2
• 30 is reflected back to space
• Gaseous water (H2O), CO2, NO2, Methane (CH4) are
  transparent to visible light
• 70 is absorbed and then re-radiated as infrared
  radiation
• The cited gases absorb infrared radiation and
  trap 88 (pre-industrial revolution rate)
• The Earth would average -1º Fahrenheit without
  these gases and is at 57º F. with them.
• Clouds have a complex role in trapping moisture
  (warming the Earth) and also in enhancing
  reflection (cooling the Earth).
• There are major cooling and warming cycles of
  100,000, 20,000 and 10,000 years related to
  Earths orbits eccentricity, tilt, precession
• The Punchline Earths temperature is based on a
  fine (not completely understood) balance carbon
  dioxide (CO2) is the major player.

For more on natural Earth orbital cycles
http//www.ngdc.noaa.gov/paleo/ctl/clisci100k.html
11
Context
12
Energy Future Context

• Fossil fuel is plentiful (and inexpensive)
• Oil supply is in 10s of years
• Gas supply is over 100 years
• Coal supply is several 100 years
• 85 of the worlds energy (to do work) is
  supplied by fossil fuel
• Nuclear power generation has been at a standstill
  for two decades, but that is changing
• 2 plants are currently under construction
• Germany is backing away from nuclear power
• China is now adding significant capacity with a
  new technique
• Debate regarding nuclear power is reopening in
  the U.S.
• Renewable energy sources contribute an extremely
  small portion of the overall world requirement
• Economic development has been and continues to be
  dependent on cheap energy

Nathan Lewis reference is cited frequently.
13
Oil Reserve Decline Will Occur. When?!
This graph is based on an Ultimate Recovery of
liquids (conventional oil plus natural gas
liquids) of 2000 Gb and Non-Conventional oil of
750 Gb. from Dr. Jean Laherrère, 2000
http//www.hubbertpeak.com/midpoint.htm
14
More Facts

• 20 of U.S. Oil comes from the Persian Gulf
• 40 comes from OPEC nations
• Almost 60 of U.S. oil from outside the U.S.
• Oil prices
• Recent surges reflect limited supply elasticity
  and volatility of source countries (Venezuela,
  Iraq, Russia, Nigeria).
• Gasoline is taxed (roughly 3X base cost U.S. is
  1/3rd of base cost) in much of Europe
• Discourage use fund infrastructure
• Strategic Petroleum Reserve a month supply.
• 670 Million Barrels
• U.S. Uses about 20 Million Barrels per day

Source EIA
15
Worldwide Energy Consumption - 2002
Total is 431 Exajoules the U.S. used 102
Exajoules (24)
http//www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/tab
le18.xls
16
Energy Consumption
Source EIA. http//www.eia.doe.gov
17
Energy Efficiency Ratios Per Capita
Source EIA. http//www.eia.doe.gov
18
World Natural Gas Reserves
Source BP
19
Gas Reserves1.6 - 5 Trillion Barrels Of Oil
Equivalent (60 180 year supply)
These reserve numbers come from the Discover
Magazine article, cited earlier
20
Energy Use Is Split Between Sectors
Source http//www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/demand.htm
l
21
Solar Vs. Grid Electricity CostSource
Solarbuzz.com
Solar I Solar I Solar I
Installed Home System Installed Home System Installed Home System
On Grid or Off Grid (2 Kilowatts) with battery On Grid or Off Grid (2 Kilowatts) with battery change from prior month
Customer Price 17,719 up 43
Sunny climate 37.13 cents kWh up 0.09 cents kWh
Cloudy climate 81.68 cents kWh up 0.20 cents kWh
Solar II Solar II Solar II
Installed Commercial System Installed Commercial System Installed Commercial System
On Grid (50 Kilowatts) no battery On Grid (50 Kilowatts) no battery change from prior month
Customer Price 334,779 up 972
Sunny climate 26.80 cents kWh up 0.10 cents kWh
Cloudy climate 58.97 cents kWh up 0.23 cents kWh
Solar III Solar III Solar III
Installed Industrial System Installed Industrial System Installed Industrial System
On Grid (500 Kilowatts) no battery On Grid (500 Kilowatts) no battery change from prior month
Customer Price 2,418,684 up 7,000
Sunny climate 20.81 cents kWh up 0.06 cents kWh
Cloudy climate 45.77 cents kWh up 0.13 cents kWh
Grid Electricity Averages about 8 cents
KwH Note Wind Power costs 4.5 cents vs 3.5
cents for gas fired electricity. This does not
include taxes and some capital costs.
http//www.technologyreview.com/articles/05/05/iss
ue/forward_wind.asp?trknl
Source Nathan Lewis.
22
Source http//www.uic.com.au/nip08.htm
Source US Utility Data Inst. (pre 1995),
Resource Data International (1995- )Note the
above data refer to fuel plus operation and
maintenance costs only, they exclude capital,
since this varies greatly among utilities and
states, as well as with the age of the plant. On
the basis of the OECD projections opposite,
capital costs in USA are 55 of total for
nuclear, 45 of total for coal and 16 of total
for gas. Grossing these up on this basis for 2001
gives 3.73 c/kWh for nuclear, 3.27 c/kWh for coal
and 5.87 c/kWh for gas.
23
Cost of new technologies have declined steeply,
10
1
Production costs (EURO1990/kWh)
0.1
0.01
100
10000
1000000
Cumulative Installed Capacity (MW)
Electric technologies, EU 1980-1995, Source IEA
24
Source EIA
25
Energy Growth and Carbon Growth - U.S. Prediction
Source EIA and Congressional Research Service
http//www.ncseonline.org/NLE
26
Issues
27
Energy Future Issues

• A high rate of energy consumption has
  environmental impact
• Global Warming is predicted, with a variety of
  side effects
• Human-induced linkage evidence is mounting amd
  climate science is maturing
• There is a small possibility for sudden,
  unpredictable change
• Fossil fuel consumption can produce serious
  direct health side effects, predominantly
  respiratory illnesses, mercury poisoning
• Some respected forecasters predict a peak of
  production within 10-20 years (and related new
  era economics dealing with supply/demand)
• Key energy producing countries have their own
  domestic agenda and issues
• May not be a collaborative or predictable
  supplier
• There is a Catch-22 problem regarding new
  technology and infrastructure (i.e. getting
  investment before a crisis)

28
Keeling Curve
http//www.mlo.noaa.gov/Projects/GASES/co2graph.ht
m
29
A 1000 Year Look At Constituents Of The Earths
Atmosphere
30
Projected levels of atmospheric CO2 during the
next 100 years would be higher than at anytime in
the last 440,000 yrs
CO2 Concentration (ppmv)
(BP 1950)
31
http//www.nytimes.com/2004/08/31/science/earth/21
clim.html
32
Projected concentrations of CO2 during the 21st
century are two to four times the pre-industrial
level
Scientists appear to be focusing on limiting the
levels to 2X pre-industrial levels or 550 ppm
Source IPCC
33
Stabilization of the atmospheric concentration of
carbon dioxide will require significant emissions
reductions(Target 550 PPM is a general
scientist goal)
34
Is there potential for environmental catastrophe?

• Examples
• West Antarctica ice sheet collapse
• Rapid species isolation and extinction
• Disruption of the themohaline circulation
• Accelerated phenomenon
• Carbon dioxide from heating land
• Reduced carbon pick-up in oceans
• Melting happens faster than accumulation

35
Energy Growth and Carbon Growth - U.S.
Prediction And Consequences
Kyoto Protocol Level For US By 2012 4638 Metric
tons
1990 Level Of Carbon Dioxide For U.S. 4988
Metric Tons
Source EIA and Congressional Research Service
http//www.ncseonline.org/NLE
36
Implication Of Carbon Goals

• 40 of energy would have to be produced by
  renewables and/or efficiencies found by 2012
• Equivalent to building 500 Diablo Canyon power
  plants (approx.)

37
Kyoto Accords SummarySource NYTimes 20050216
38
The Big Global Change Picture

• To stabilize at 550 PPM of C02 (twice the
  pre-industrial level and one that produces
  roughly 2-4o C. of temperature rise) would
  require approx. 600 Exajoules of carbon free
  power by 2050.
• In other words, the projection is that we will
  need as much as twice as much carbon-free power
  by 2050 than the total power produced, by all
  sources, globally, at present.

39
Tipping Points Could Force Accelerated Change
Politics

• Examples
• China becoming the most powerful energy
  negotiator
• Turbulence in Saudi Arabia or in other major oil
  producers players
• Terrorism fueled by hopelessness in energy have
  not countries
• Persistent disruption of key oil pipelines (e.g.
  Iraq)
• Delay in putting together LNG infrastructure
• Unexpectedly high costs of recovery after
  production peak
• Lack of discovery of oil and/or gas keeping up

40
PoliticsWorld Oil Supply Hot Spots
Source WSJ September 28, 2004
41
Net Oil Production
Source Wall Street Journal, September 28, 2004
42
PoliticsThe Gap Between Rich And Poor Grows

• Energy is capital intensive
• Poor countries do not have the resources
• Impact burn down the forests.
• 2 B people rely on primary energy sources (e.g.
  wood).
• Energy costs in poorer countries range from 12-26
  percent (vs a few percent in U.S.) of GDP.
• Inequality between rural and urban.
• Good(?) news is that people are moving to urban
  areas.

Source Geller
43
The China Dimension
China lifts nuclear power target By Louisa Lim
BBC News, Beijing The pressure on China's
power resources is currently intense China has
announced it will build 40 new nuclear reactors
within the next 15 years, a big increase on
earlier plans. The move is intended to boost
electricity capacity as the country's economic
boom has caused serious power shortages.
China suspends 26 power projects Part of the
massive Three Gorges Dam project must stop China
has ordered a halt to construction work on 26 big
power stations, including two at the Three Gorges
Dam, on environmental grounds.
Reference http//news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific
/4419313.stm
44
Pollution Effects
Health

• 500,000 deaths are attributed to air quality
  issues each year.
• Earth Policy Institute claims 3M lives lost/yr.
  (vs 1M lost to traffic fatalities)
• EPI claims 70,000 deaths in U.S./yr. from
  pollution (vs. 40,000 traffic deaths)
• 5 of deaths in urban areas are air quality
  related.
• Almost 290,000 premature deaths each year in
  China, costing 50B and 7 of GDP
• Ontario estimates that pollution costs 1B in
  medical/hospital fees and absenteeism for 11.9M
  people
• Scaled to the U.S. this would be about 30B/yr.
• Mercury poisoning is now part of the public
  debate because of proposed EPA power plant
  licensing rule changes.
• The potential intensification of coal burning
  raises serious health risks from mercury, carbon
  dioxide, sulfur.

Source EPI
45
Investment In Energy Has Declined Since 1980
By Product Drop In Energy Related Patents
Robert M. Margolis and Daniel M. Kammen,
Underinvestment The Energy Technology and RD
Policy Challenge, Science, July 30, 1999
46
Barriers For New Technologies
Investment

• Lack of money or financing
• Misplaced incentives
• Pricing and tax barriers
• Political obstacles
• Regulatory and utility barriers
• Limited supply infrastructure for energy
  efficient products
• Quality problems (new technology doesnt live up
  to claims)
• Insufficient information and training

A hopeful note Columbia University is offering
200K prize for solutions for sequestering carbon
or in carbon dioxide removal from the air.
Professor Klaus Lackner is the leader.
47
Options
48
Energy Future Options(An SEs Sample Of Topics)

• Options for sources
• Reduced Carbon fossil fuel
• Renewables
• Nuclear
• Options for energy transport systems
• Hydrogen
• Options for efficiencies
• Hybrids
• Distributed generation
• Smart Systems
• Motors
• Options for policies

49
Energy Future Options

• Topics
• Coal (and sequestration)
• Natural Gas
• Nuclear
• Tidal
• Wind Power
• Biomass
• Photovoltaics

50
Carbon Intensity of Energy Mix Has Been Dropping.
?
M. I. Hoffert et. al., Nature, 1998, 395, 881
Source Nathan Lewis
51
Coal Use Continues To Dominate Electricity
Production In The U.S.
52
A Great Hope Sequestration
U.S. is spending 1B on Futuregen
Burning Coal Without Emitting Carbon Dioxide To
The Atmosphere
Source http//www.dakotagas.com/ http//www.fossi
l.energy.gov/programs/powersystems/futuregen/futur
egen_factsheet.pdf
53
Carbon Sequestering In Nature

• Power plant sequestering typically means pushing
  CO2 into the ground (to help pump out more gas or
  oil)
• Putting carbon into the oceans has been
  considered, but could change the oceans pH.
• Poplar DNA has been sequenced botanists hope to
  develop Poplar strains to absorb more carbon
• Spreading iron filings into the ocean has not
  produced significant results in removing CO2
• Columbia University is working on a large scale
  scheme to convert CO2 from the air into
  carbonates (solids), which can be buried.

54
Liquefied Natural Gas
http//www.kryopak.com/LNGships.html
LNG requires a heavy infrastructure for cooling
and transportation. This is currently capacity
limited.

• http//www.ferc.gov/industries/gas/gen-info/horizo
  n-lng.pdf
• for proposed terminals

http//www.energy.ca.gov/lng/
55
The Third Way Gas-To-Liquid (GTL)

• Interest in gas-to-liquid (GTL) or
  Fischer-Tropsch diesel (F-T) fuels has increased
  in recent years because of their potential to
  displace imported petroleum.
• GTL fuels are created when gaseous fuels such as
  natural gas or biogas are converted to liquid
  fuels that can be refined into gasoline and
  diesel.
• GTL fuels have very low sulfur content.

http//www.nrel.gov/vehiclesandfuels/npbf/gas_liqu
id.html
56
World Natural Gas Distribution
A major gap In trans-oceanic shipment capacity
Source BP
57
LNG Facilities Lag Demand
Existing
A
B
C
D
58
Natural Gas Cost
Natural gas has not experienced volatility in
price or supply vulnerability
Source EIA and http//quotes.ino.com/
59
Nuclear As An Option?

• Nuclear plants do not scale well.
• Typically most effective at 1 GWatt
• To produce 300-600 Exajoules of power to meet
  2050 world demand.
• Up to 10000 new plants over the next 50 years
• One every other day, somewhere in the world
• Nuclear remains an option and is re-emerging for
  consideration
• Innovation
• Storage of waste problem solved (?)
• Fusion power remains as a great hope

60
Nuclear Waste Is Being Held Adjacent To Power
Plants and Production Facilities
Source Technology Review, November 2004
61
Pebble Reactor (China)

• Pebble Reactor Process Steps
• Hot Rocks Thousands of billiard ball-sized fuel
  pebbles power the reactor. The balls are coated
  with impermeable silicon carbide and packed with
  15,000 tiny uranium dioxide flecks, each of which
  is encased in its own silicon carbide shell.
• Recycling Center The fuel pebbles cycle through
  the reactor vessel from top to bottom, heating
  helium. Pebbles that are still potent return to
  the top spent and damaged ones collect at the
  bottom.
• Spin Zone The hot gas flows into the
  water-cooled conversion unit and pushes the
  turbine, generating electricity. It then cycles
  back to the reactor vessel to be reheated

Source Wired, September 2004
62
Renewable Energy Potential
Source Technical Potential (Exajoules)
Biomass 450 (?)
Wind 60
Solar 45000
Hydro 30
Marine Nil
Geothermal 4500
Source Turkenburg, Utrecht University
63
Renewables Introduce Major Energy Storage Issues

• Daily and seasonal shifts in power levels imply
• Additional capacity to support surges
• Hybrid systems for dark power
• Conversion to hydrogen by electrolysis
• Pumping water uphill
• Battery storage systems
• Cogeneration plants with liquid fuels
• Storage and hybridization introduce significant
  complexities and costs.

64
Tidal
Stingray

• Very large tidal generation systems have been
  built or are planned (France, Philippines (2.2
  GWatt))
• Very dependent on specific location geography
• Stingray can be used off-shore to catch general
  tidal and wave motion

La Rance, France
Dalupiri Ocean Power Plant
65
Large Scale Wind Generation
Altamont, Pass
Palm Springs, CA
http//www.palmsprings.com/services/wind.html
http//www.res-ltd.com/project/proj-altamont.htm
66
U. S. Wind Power Density Map
Source http//www.nrel.gov/wind/wind_potential.ht
ml
67
Wind Energy Potential
http//www.nrel.gov/wind/wind_potential.html
68
                                                
                          Figure 3
http//www.nrel.gov/wind/wind_potential.html
69
Sky Windpower
http//skywindpower.com/ww/
70
Biomass (Conventional)

• Electricity and heat are produced today from
  biomass
• 1.4 percent of U.S. electricity
• Opportunistic exploitation of biomass (e.g.
  methane from farm waste) is an important
  localized use
• Ethanol (alcohol) is made from wheat and corn and
  added to gasoline, but
• Energy produced is only 24 greater than energy
  expended
• Soil depletion occurs 12 times faster with corn
  than with grains
• An acre is needed to run a 60 watt bulb
  continuously1
• A more optimistic view some (IPCC) predict that
  biomass could account for as much as 25-50 of
  the worlds energy requirement
• Methanol is produced with a liquid reforming
  process
• Some new crops, such as Switchgrass appear to
  have good energy potential

Source Hayden, The Solar Fraud
71
Biomass (Non-Conventional) Algae

• University of New Hampshire has discovered that
  an algae intended for carbon sequestration can
  produce significant volumes of oil (for
  biodiesel)
• Claims
• 800 square miles of land can produce and Exajoule
  of energy each year.
• Algal ponds can be build for about 80K per acre
  (or 50M per sq mile.
• Estimate about 12K per acre per year for
  maintenance/feed
• Works with sea water.
• An Exajoule from conventional biomass would take
  over 200K square miles (vs 800)

Too Good To Be True??
Source http//www.unh.edu/p2/biodiesel/article_al
ge.html
72
Solar Energy (Via Photovoltaics)

• Promise of significant energy production
• BUT, it has liabilities
• Current high cost
• Major up front investment
• Daylight only production
• Electricity transmission and conversion to liquid
  fuels
• Limited technology knowledge

Source BP Solar
73
Lewis Center At Oberlin CollegeExample of a
Green Building
http//www.oberlin.edu/envs/ajlc/Default.html
74
Solar Cost and Payback
Source http//www.nrel.gov/gis/images/femp1-1-3.j
pg
75
SolarBuzz
http//www.solarbuzz.com/
76
Efficiency of Photovoltaic Devices
25
20
Sunpower 20.4 in 2004
15
Efficiency ()
10
5
1980
2000
1970
1990
1950
1960
Year
Source Nathan Lewis
Margolis and Kammen, Science 285, 690 (1999)
77
Energy Cost To Build PV Systems
Source http//www.chem.uu.nl/nws/www/publica/9805
3.pdf
78
Reference Example Kyocera

• 187 watts of peak power in 3x5 ft. panel
• d.Blue is its name

http//www.solaraccess.com/news/story?storyid7530
79
Thin Film PV

• Companies Involved
• Konarka
• Naonosolar
• Nanosys
• Siemens
• STMicroelectronics
• GE
• Idea Develop photovoltaics as a cheap coating or
  paint

80
Rules of Thumb

• Yearly average output from panels is
  approximately 1/5th of the peak output rating.
• 15000 square km at 10 efficiency would produce
  enough for U.S. electricity c. 1998
• 200 Watts/m2 is a good number for solar flux in
  the 48 states, around the clock/around the year.
• 12 efficiency is a good base 30 efficiency
  may be near limit?
• Ref. Page 186-187 of Solar Fraud for solar
  production values and http//www.solarbuzz.com/Con
  sumer/FastFacts.htm.

81
How Much Energy Can Be Produced On The Roofs of
Houses?

• 7x107 detached single family homes in U.S.
• 2000 sq ft/roof 44ft x 44 ft 13 m x 13 m
  180 m2/home or 1.2x1010 m2 total roof area
• This can (only) supply 7.5 Exajoules, or 1/10th
  of 2000 U.S. Primary Energy Consumption
• but this could provide local space heating,
  surge (daytime) capacity.

82
Power From Space Has Been Studied Seriously
Ref Dr. George Bekey
83
Roads As A Point Of Comparison

• 4x106 miles of roads in the US.
• 6.4x1010 square meters of surface (10 meters
  wide, estimated).
• At 20 watts/m2, this amounts to 1280 Gwatts
  (average). U.S. electricity production for 1998
  was 412 Gwatts (average)

Complete conversion to Solar Power is similar in
scale to rebuilding the entire U. S. road network.
84
Status Of Solar Photovoltaics

• Current efficiencies of PV modules
• 13-19 for crystaline Silicon
• Performance efficiency improvement of 2X is
  anticipated
• Increase in PV shipments (50MW in 1991 700 MW in
  2003 (compounding at about 30/yr.))
• Continuous reduction in investment costs up front
• Rate of decline is 20/year
• Current cost is 5/Watt target is 1/Watt (5X)
• Payback time will be reduced from 3-9 years to
  1-2 years
• Electricity production cost prediction
• .30 to 2.50/kWh would be reduced to .05 -
  .25/kWh
• Over 500,000 Solar Home Systems have been
  installed in the last 10 years

Source Turkenburg, Utrecht University
85
Energy Future Options

• Topics
• Hydrogen

86
Hydrogen

• Widely produced in todays world economy
• Steam-methane reformer (SMR) process
• Just now, beginning to successfully scale down
  (e.g. to be used at gas stations in future
  (100,000 places in U.S,).
• Hydrogen can also be made from solar power on
  electrolysis of water
• A liquid, transportable form can be produced
  (methanol (good catalysts exist to do this from
  CO2 )). This ends up as carbon neutral.
• At bulk power costs of .03/W electrolysis of
  water can compete with compressed or liquid H2
  (transported)
• Could produce small quantities of H2 to fuel
  cars, even at the level of a residence

Source NAE Article, The Bridge, Microgeneration
Technology, 2003
87
Hydrogen, Again

• Fuel cells using Proton Exchange Membrane have
  made enormous progress, but are still expensive.
• Hydrogen storage in carbon fiber strengthened
  aluminum tanks.
• Hydride systems and carbon from solar power on
  electrolysis of water
• A liquid, transportable form can be produced
  (methanol (good catalysts exist to do this from
  CO2). This ends up as carbon neutral.
• Hydrides appear to be promising as means of
  storing hydrogen gas

88
Fuel Cell Technology
Source CETC
Proton Exchange Membrane Alkaline Solid Oxide Molten Carbonate Phosphoric Acid
Operating temperature (oC) 80 80 1000 650 200
Power Density (watts/kg.) 340-1500 35-105 15-20 30-40 120-180
Efficiency () 40-60 40-60 45-50 50-57 40-47
Time to Operation Seconds Minutes Hours (10) Hours (10) Hours (2)
Platinum Used Yes No No No No
Issues Cost, stability, maturity Time, density Time, temp, scale Time, temp, scale Time, temp, scale
Fuel Pure H2, Methane, Reformed Methanol Pure H2 Natural Gas Syn-Gas Natural Gas Syn-Gas Reformed Natural Gas.
89
Fuel Cell Power Generation Is Emerging
Source Ballard
90
Natural Gas and Fuel Cell Co-generation

• Pilot project in Japan with Ballard
• Tokyo Gas
• Heat used for hot water and/or space heating
• Saves ¼ of the fossil fuel

91
Energy Future Options

• Topics
• Hybrids
• Distributed Generation
• Intelligent Systems
• Efficient Motors

92
Hybrids

• Vehicles
• Electric and gasoline powered
• Houses
• PV panels
• On demand water heat
• Passive Solar
• Smart(er) appliances
• Controls to help with space heating
• Sensing presence and preferences

See http//www.cee1.org/ for appliance
efficiency
93
Is there Carbon in Hydrogen?

• If used in a fuel cell, Hydrogen still produces
  Carbon (Dioxide) because of how it was
  manufactured
• 145 grams/mile if it comes from natural gas
• 436 grams/mile if it comes from grid electricity
• But, for context
• 374 grams/mile if it came from gasoline (no fuel
  cell)
• 370 grams/mile if natural gas had been used
  directly (no fuel cell).
• 177 grams/mile through hybrid vehicles (no fuel
  cell with natural gas)

Source Wald, New York Times, 11/12/2003
94
Hybrid Vehicle Payback and Effects

• For a Toyota Prius to be justified,
• If gas costs 2.00/gal
• Prius gets 44 mpg (vs. 25 for other economy cars)
• Over 15,000 miles per year.
• Prius costs 2000 more
• Payback time is 4 years
• Honda Civic hybrid payback is nearly 10 years.
• Other bad news
• Battery pack replacement is 3000 for the Prius,
  (not covered by warranty
• Good news
• Hybrid battery is nickel-metal-hydride and is
  fully recycleable, and not nearly as toxic as a
  lead-acid (the typical-type) car battery.

95
Smarter Combustion Technology (HCCI) Could Lead
To Simple, Significant Efficiencies
96
Tankless Water HeatersPart of A Hybrid Home?

• No heating of water in tank
• No pilot light
• Continuous flow of heated water
• Energy savings of 10-20
• Systems cost 300 - 900.

97
Microgeneration Technology(Distributed
Generation)

• 7 of the worlds energy is generated on a
  distributed basis
• In some countries this is up to 50
• Generate power close to the load
• 10 1000 kW (traditional power plants are 100
  1000 MW)
• Internal Combustion, Turbine, Stirling Cycle
  (with efficiencies approaching 40), Solid-oxide
  fuel cells (over 40 efficiency), Wind Turbines,
  PV
• Modular (support incremental additions of
  capacity)
• Low(er) capital cost
• Waste heat can be captured and used locally via
  Combined Heat and Power (CHP) systems
• Storage technology is also moving forward to deal
  with localized capacity (e.g. zinc-air fuel
  cell).

Source NAE Article, The Bridge, Microgeneration
Technology, 2003
98
Spinning Reserves From Responsive Loads

• How to avoid significant reserves in power
  generation?
• Control both generation and load
• Historically only generation was controlled
• Network technology enables control of load
  (through management of numerous small resources)

Source Oak Ridge Research Report, March 2003.
99
Spinning Reserve From Responsive Loads(Smart
Energy)
Carrier ComfortChoice themostats provide
significant monitoring capability - Hourly
data - No. of minutes of compressor/heater
operation - No. of
starts - Average temperature - Hour end
temperature trend - Event data - Accurate
signal receipt and control
action time stamp
100
Electric Motors

• Increased motor efficiency will be a major push
• Motors use a high percentage of electricity
• Efficiency from variable speeds and better
  synchronization with power sources

http//seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/86845_elect
ric13.shtml
101
Energy Future Options(Policies)

• Topics
• Taxes (discouragement)
• Incentives (encouragement)
• Markets (credit trading)
• Standards
• Legal sanctions
• Research and Development
• Full cost accounting

102
Hedge Economics Suggests Moving Now To Mitigate
Effects of Carbon Dioxide Doubling
103
The Challenge Problem
104
San Luis Obispo County Local Example
A Driving Question If a County can not achieve
energy independence, how can a country?
105
San Luis Obispo County

• Small population, mostly densely oriented along
  one corridor (US 101)
• Abundant open space and sunshine
• Access to (sea) water
• Well educated population with some evidence of
  being early technology adapters
• Technology institution (Cal Poly) to help advise
• Coherent county government mechanisms (SLOCOG)

A Driving Question If a County can not achieve
energy independence, how can a country?
106
Carrizo Plain Solar (When Active)
107
Abandoned PV Site In Carrizo Plains
108
A Local Vision A Sustainable County

• What if
• All energy needed by San Luis Obispo County was
  produced within the county without the help of
  coal, oil, gas, or nuclear energy?
• We exploit what we know about
• Solar (photovoltaics) for day/surge
• Biomass (algae) for storage/night/portable fuel?
• We use conservative projections for technology
  improvements and economies of scale?
• We impact citizens as little as possible (they
  should not notice the difference)
• We get there by 2025?

Lets look at part of the solution.
109
DOE Renewable Energy Map - Pacific
Yellow High solar potential Red High geothermal
potential Gray High Wind Potential
Source http//www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/reps/rpmap/rp
_pacific.html
110
San Luis Obispo Energy Requirements

• Suppose 500K people (double todays population)
  by 2050
• What if we assume that we COMPLETELY replace
  todays energy requirements with solar panels
• Assume (naively)
• Average U.S. per capita consumption rate
• Todays PV technology and cost
• Reuse of infrastructure
• No cost of storage for dark energy
• Size?
• Cost?

111
San Luis Obispo Energy Requirements

• Suppose 500K people (double todays population)
  by 2050
• What if we assume that we COMPLETELY replace
  todays energy requirements with solar panels
• Assume (naively)
• Average U.S. per capita consumption rate
• Todays PV technology and cost
• Reuse of infrastructure
• No cost of storage for dark energy
• Size 14 Km on a side
• Cost 323K per capita
• A factor of 10 improvement gt 32K

112
San Luis Obispo County

• 2-3 of land would have to be used, with todays
  technology
• About half the size of Hearst Ranch
• 2X the amount of acreage in grapes
• Note size of parcel for algae production is 18
  km (vs 14 for PV) per side (simple calculation
  based on UNH claims)

113
Conclusions
114
Electrical Engineers Will Play a Critical Role In
Solving This Major World Challenge

• People will create and adapt to systems and
  products which will have to be significantly more
  efficient, smarter
• These systems or products (e.g. homes, cars,
  entertainment, communications) will represent
• More distribution
• More connectivity (communication)
• More intelligence
• More information
• More integration
• More transparency

The best way to predict the future is to invent
it. Alan Kay
115
Conclusions (Mine)

• The Energy Transition A Major Issue For 100
  Years
• Market And Policy Drivers Are Essential
• Climate sciences must grow in credibility
• Scientists need better, long term data sets
• Market forces will not be sufficient
• Breakthroughs Are Needed
• Sequestration
• Solar
• Biomass
• Nuclear
• Efficiencies Are Available
• Smarter systems, distribution, hybrids
• Your career as an EE will deal with this
  transition

116
The Prize

• A copy of Out of Gas goes to the team submitting
  a spreadsheet with an model for energy
  independence for San Luis Obispo County using a
  combination of PV and biodiesel
• Basic model is acceptable, but it must include
• Population number P (nominally 500,000)
• Current PV technology efficiency E with a
  declining cost factor C (i.e. N/year)
• Use UNH claims for producing liquid/stored energy
  (e.g. for transportation) include pipeline costs
  estimates.
• Storage Cost estimate (S of generation cost)
• Financing Cost (F interest per year)
• Grow to independence by 2050
• Goal is to build up intuition on what it will
  take to get there.

117
El Nina Summer 2004
Questions and Discussion
El Nina Summer 2004
118
Major References

• Nathan Lewis, National Academy of Sciences papers
  and http//www.parc.xerox.com/events/sustainabilit
  y/lewis.html
• Energy Information Administration, DoE.
  www.eia.doe.gov
• IPCC Synthesis Report, 2001, Morrocco.
• Wim Turkenberg, Utrecht University, Netherlands.
  (Talk 2002).
• Stanford Global Climate and Energy Project,
  http//gcep.stanford.edu/
• Rist, Curtis, Why well never run out of oil,
  Discover, June 1999
• Goodstein, David, Running Out Of Gas, 2004
• Yergin, Daniel, Imagining a 7-a-Gallon Future,
  New York Times, April 4, 2004
• The Solar Fraud, Howard C, Hayden, 2001
• British Petroleum website http//www.bp.com
• Hansen, Jim, Can We Defuse The Global Warming
  Time Bomb, http//naturalscience.com/ns/articles/
  01-16/ns_jeh.html

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change