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Findings and Recommendations from the Hydrologic Verification System Requirements Team

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Title: Findings and Recommendations from the Hydrologic Verification System Requirements Team


1
Findings and Recommendations from the Hydrologic
Verification System Requirements Team
  • Peter Gabrielsen, Julie Demargne, Mary Mullusky,
    Kevin Werner, Bill Lawrence, Scott Lindsey, Donna
    Page, Noreen Schwein, Scott Staggs, Tom Adams,
    and Bill Marosi

RFC Verification Workshop, August 14-16 2007
2
Final Reportavailable at
http//www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/rfcdev/docs/Final_Verif
ication_Report.pdf
3
Outline
  • Forecast Verification at NWS needs and vision
  • River Forecast Verification System
  • Recommendations vs. Current/Future Work
  • Resources for Verification
  • Verification Plan
  • Verification Activities

4
Forecast Verification at NWS
  • Needs
  • 1996 National Research Council stated
    verification of hydrologic forecasts was
    inadequate
  • 2006 Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate
    recommended NWS to expand verification of its
    uncertainty products and make it easily available
    to all users in near real time
  • Vision
  • Develop a comprehensive national system to verify
    hydrologic forecasts and guidance products which
    satisfy the needs of all users
  • Improve forecast services by analyzing sources of
    error and skill across the entire forecast
    process
  • Provide easy access to enhanced river forecast
    verification data to improve our scientific and
    operational techniques and services

Completing the Forecast, Characterizing and
Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions
Using Weather and Climate Forecasts
5
River Forecast Verification System
  • Goals
  • Quantify quality of RFC forecasts and quality of
    forecast services
  • Monitor forecast quality over time
  • Monitor quality at various steps in the forecast
    process
  • Improve forecast quality
  • Assist prioritization of forecast system
    enhancements
  • Uses
  • Operational
  • Experimental/Research
  • Customers
  • Hydrologic forecasters
  • Scientists/Researchers
  • Hydrologic program managers
  • Emergency and water resources managers
  • Public

6
River Forecast Verification System
  • Components
  • Logistical verification
  • Deterministic verification
  • Probabilistic verification
  • Verification System Capabilities
  • Data Archiving (attributes for time, service,
    basin and events)
  • Computing Metrics
  • Displaying Metrics (graphics and reports)
  • Disseminating Metrics and Data (understand
    quality usefulness of forecasts)
  • Real Time Access to Metrics (understand errors in
    recent forecasts and over long term)
  • Error Analysis (including hindcast experiments)
  • Performance Measure Tracking (level of success)

7
Verification Resources
  • Recommended resources
  • OHD Program Manager for verification
  • RFC Verification Focal Points at each RFC
  • National Team for developing and implementing
    standardized formats and procedures to archive
    data required for verification
  • Current and near-future resources
  • National Verification Focal Points Julie
    Demargne Mary Mullusky support from others
  • 13 RFC Verification Focal Points
  • 2 Hydrologic Forecast Verification Teams for WR
    and NWS

8
Proposed Verification Plan
  • Recommendations from FY07 up to FY11

Probabilistic Verification
Deterministic Verification
Task
1. Archive
2. Compute Metrics
3. Display Metrics
4. Dissemination
5. Real Time Access
6. Error Analysis
7. Performance Tracking
Logistical Verification
Grid Verification
Task
1. Archive
2. Compute Metrics
3. Display Metrics
4. Dissemination
5. Real Time Access
6. Error Analysis
7. Performance Tracking
9
AHPS FY07 Proposed Verification Activities
  • Deterministic Verification
  • Enhance release IVP
  • Develop error analysis, raw model forecasts,
    deterministic hindcaster
  • Define data requirements hardware for
    verification hindcaster
  • Ensemble Verification
  • Enhance release EVS
  • Enhance release Ensemble Hindcaster Develop
    error analysis
  • Evaluate existing archiving capabilities
  • Logistical Verification
  • Develop plan for archiving info
  • Implement logistical measures

10
Current Verification Activities
  • Deterministic Verification
  • Deterministic Verification Tools IVP
    enhancements release
  • Develop Error Analysis development of raw model
    forecast application deterministic hindcaster,
    define data requirements hardware
  • Ensemble Verification
  • Improve Ensemble Verification EVS enhancements
    release, development of requirements for
    archiving capabilities
  • Improve Ensemble Hindcaster EH enhancements
    release, development of uncertainty analysis
    capabilities
  • Logistical Verification
  • Develop plan for archiving info
  • Implement logistical measures

11
Future Verification Activities
  • Verification System Requirements Planning Team
    to define the AHPS FY08 activities and update
    verification plan
  • AHPS activities to be continued
  • Deterministic Verification IVP, Error Analysis
  • Ensemble Verification EVS, Error Analysis
  • Logistical Verification Logistical Measures
  • 2 Hydrologic Forecast Verification Teams for WR
    and NWS to develop verification strategies using
    case studies

12
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