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Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast Draft Current Trends Forecast

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Title: Wholesale Electricity Price Forecast Draft Current Trends Forecast


1
Wholesale Electricity Price ForecastDraft
Current Trends Forecast
  • Jeff King
  • Generating Resource Advisory Committee
  • September 24, 2002

2
Model setup
  • AURORA Version 6.1.60.
  • Forecast period
  • Preliminary forecast period 2001-2020
  • Run period 2001-2025 (end-effects)
  • Final draft forecast period 2001-2025 (possible
    BPA contracts)
  • No price caps.
  • Operating reserves set at 6.5.
  • 16 WECC load-resource areas
  • PNW East includes western MT
  • PNW West separate

3
General assumptions
  • New projects are developed by resource-specific
    mix of developers.
  • Project under construction are completed as
    scheduled additional projects are market-driven.
  • Suspended projects
  • If gt 25 complete, entered as partial-cost new
    resource options.
  • If lt 25 complete, omitted
  • Projects scheduled for retirement are retired
    additional retirements are market-driven.

4
More general assumptions
  • Most projects carry an intra-regional
    transmission cost
  • 15/MWh point-to-point transmission basic
    ancillary services cost plus 1.9 transmission
    loss penalty.
  • Exceptions include peaking projects and
    industrial cogeneration
  • Pancaked inter-area transmission losses rates.
  • Bid margin set at 5 of variable cost.

5
Current Trends (Base) case assumptions
  • NPPC draft medium fuel price forecasts.
  • NPPC draft medium load forecasts
  • Demand returns to medium growth rates by 2006.
  • Long-term growth adjusted for programmatic
    conservation.
  • New resource options
  • Gas-fired combined-cycle GT
  • Duct firing for above
  • Gas-fired simple-cycle GT
  • Wind
  • Pulverized coal-fired steam-electric
  • Solar PV
  • 1.7 cents/kWh production incentive for new wind
    solar.

6
More Current Trends case assumptions
  • SBC and RPS resource development forced in
  • simulated as new wind.
  • quantity based on price forecast/cost difference
  • Oregon CO2 standards for new projects
  • 2/Ton CO2 offset fee, as a variable cost.
  • Fee applies to 17 of total CO2 production.
  • New renewables receive 7.50/MWh green tag credit.

7
New resource characteristics 1
8
New resource characteristics 2
9
Average annual Mid-Columbia price forecast
10
2002-20 levelized Mid-Columbia price forecast
comparison to earlier forecasts
11
Mid-Columbia mid-term monthly average prices
loads
12
Mid-Columbia monthly prices loads(detail,
2010)
13
WECC Resource Mix
14
WECC Fuel Usage
15
WECC CO2 Production
16
WECC Peak Hour Reserves
17
Some observations
  • Near-term low loads/excess capacity.
  • Significant development of coal
  • Long-term costs set by coal gas.
  • Significant increase in carbon dioxide
    production.
  • Lagging market-driven development of wind.
  • Summer price spikes.

18
Some technical issues
  • Wind up against 1000 MW limits in several areas.
  • Aero vs frame GT vs gas-recips. for peaking.
  • Supply curve of CO2 mitigation cost.
  • Supply curve of wind shaping cost (incremental
    regulation)
  • Calibrate duct firing MW limits.
  • 2000 MW coal in S. ID, 1600 MW in MT.

19
Base sensitivity studies 1
20
Base sensitivity studies 2
21
Loose ends
  • Characterize gas-fired spark-ignition
    reciprocating peaking units.
  • LM2500 vs LM6000
  • LM6000 OM costs.
  • Characterize advanced coal technology.
  • Assess future Clean Air Act requirements.
  • Write-up solar PV characteristics.
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