Anti-Terrorist Force Protection Tactical 3D Simulation for Risk, Consequence Assessment

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Anti-Terrorist Force ProtectionHarbor Tactical
3D Simulations for Risk, Consequence Assessment

• Don Brutzman
• International Maritime Protection Symposium
• 13 December 2005

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Outline

• Motivation
• Business model, access considerations
• Agent-based tactics modeling
• Applications
• Cluster computations to support analyst
• X3D Graphics modeling
• Recommendations

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Motivation

• Defend against small-boat attack
• Evolution of studies on USS COLE attack
• Assess risk, vulnerabilities, consequences,
  alternatives
• Analysis to support 3 classes of customers
• Harbor defense funding priorities
• Harbor operations, actual projected
• Ships entering port, joining defenders

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AT/FP technical approach

• Model tactical layout of harbor, facilities
• Agent-based situated tactics for each player
• 3D visualization
• Open standards and open source
• NPS agent toolkit discrete-event Simkit/Viskit
• Extensible 3D (X3D) Graphics
• Distributed Interactive Simulation Protocol
• Scalable, repeatable methodology
• Suitable for data-driven production, repetition

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Business model

• Too many proprietary toolsets
• High cost, not sustainable, not interoperable
• Over time, essential data lost to further use
• Daylight encourages good behavior
• Business-friendly open-source licensing
• Repeatable capabilities extendable over Web
• Nothing succeeds like success
• Use proven best practices, everyone wins

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Consortia partnerships essential

• Stable, evolving Web-based standards
• Also need best practices
• Capable partners, industry and individual
• Web3D Consortium
• Real-time 3D communications using X3D
• http//www.web3D.org
• World Wide Consortium for the Grid (W2COG)
• http//www.w2cog.org

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Access considerations

• Hardest technical challenges are science and
  interoperation, not classification rules
• FMA, EIR, et cetera, writ large connected
• XML used for all data
• Validatable, with self-describing metadata
• Build unclassified versions, preferably using
  public well-documented resources
• Modify data (not code) for classified use

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Key Technologies

• Extensible Markup Language (XML)
• Validatable data, binary compression
• Web Services for message exchange
• Extensible 3D (X3D) Graphics
• ISO-approved interactive visualization

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XML in 10 Points http//www.w3.org/XML/1999/XM
L-in-10-points
Extensible Markup Language

• XML is for structuring data
• XML looks a bit like HTML
• XML is text, but isn't meant to be read
• XML is verbose by design
• XML is a family of technologies

• XML is new, but not that new
• XML leads HTML to XHTML
• XML is modular
• XML is basis for RDF and the Semantic Web
• XML is license-free, platform-independent and
  well-supported

350 member companies institutions in World
Wide Web Consortium (W3C) already understand the
business case
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Potential problem XML size, bandwidth

• Replacing data stovepipes with XML might be
  difficult since most tactical streams are highly
  compressed
• Tactical showstopper for GIG architectures
• Common problem in many domains
• Candidate binary-XML solutions exist
• NPS XSBC, Suns Fast Infoset, others
• Continuing W3C working group effort provides
  metrics, use cases and process, working to
  produce
• Efficient XML Interchange (EXI) standard effort
  underway, where efficient smaller faster
  ? ?
• http//www.w3.org/XML/Binary

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XML Schema-based Binary Compression (XSBC)

• XML encoding for validation benefits
• XML schema holds adequate information
• Tokenization of elements, attributes
• Strong data typing of value payloads
• Lossless
• More efficient than compressed numeric text

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XML Schema-based Binary Compression (XSBC)
Conclusion XSBC size, speed already better than
gzip!
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Extensible Modeling Simulation Framework

• XMSF is Web services for all manner of MS
• A composable set of standards, profiles, and
  recommended practices for web-based MS
• Foundational precepts Internet network
  technologies, Extensible Markup Language
  (XML)-based languages, and service-oriented
  architectures for simple messaging
• Enable a new generation of distributed MS
  applications to emerge, develop, interoperate
  with tactical systems
• Many easily repeatable exemplars using Web
  Services
• http//www.MovesInstitute.org/xmsf

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Simkit, Viskit, Diskit

• Discrete Event Simulation (DES)
• Methodology, Open-Source Implementation

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Viskit tool for Simkit

• Visual tool for building, analyzing Simkit models
• Well-understood methodology for Discrete Event
  Simulation (DES)
• Professional quality
• Unlocks years of NPS student-research effort
• with reduced programming
• Digitizing NPS courses for continued analyst use

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Simkit technical approach

• Well-tested Java class libraries
• DES event queue runs quickly or in real time
• Event graphs define classes of interest
• Assembly instantiates entities, collects
  statistics
• Visual model
• Logical, inspectable definition of relationships
• Saved as validated XML
• Autogenerates Java source code
• Analysts get quality code (without being gurus)

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Attacker event graph 1
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Attacker event graph 2
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Visual model saved as XML
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XML model version converted to Java source, when
needed by client or cluster
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Code generation from XML and corresponding Java
compilation are immediate
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Viskit tactical scenarios

• Diverse real-world locations and military players
• Friendly, neutral and attacker entities
• 2D tactical layout with 3D visualization
• Networked DIS for X3D playback
• Multiple scenarios under development
• Indian Island refueling pier hello world
• ABOT oil terminal, Bremerton waterfront
• Warfighter understandability is essential

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Defender event graph
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Neutral shipping event graph
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Assembly connects event graphs
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Tactical supercomputing and linux cluster
support for analysts
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Tactical supercomputing

• Trends
• Commodity processors
• Inexpensive networking
• Free, off-the-shelf, open-source software
• Cheap storage
• Internet web standards

• Leading to
• Cluster Supercomputers
• Inexpensive, deployable
• Scalable computing resource (just add PC boxes)
• Shared via web standards or
• standalone

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Tactical supercomputing

• Linux clusters can create new resources
• 5 off-the-shelf new PC boxes disk storage
• 10K 10 processors 10 Gigaflop
• Refrigerator-rack footprint easily fits shipboard
  
• Industry can provide even higher capabilities
• Exploring intermediate-level resources for
  previously supercomputer-level problems
• Consistent access via grid/web services
• Applied Viskit Design of Experiments

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Cluster statisics via web page
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So what is a cluster good for?

• First test and view basic tactical scenarios,
  then
• Conduct massive replications for statistics
• Analyst Design of Experiments (DOE) panel
• Latin Hypercube scheme varies design points
• Simulation experiments are repeatable due to
  pseudo-random number generator distributions
• But wait, theres more
• Replay outliers to assess vulnerability, learn
  exactly why certain hostile scenarios succeeded

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X3D Graphics modeling

• ISO-standard 3D graphics interchange for the Web

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Emerging Application Suite

• SavageStudio authoring for creating scenarios
• Builds both X3D scenes and Viskit assemblies
• Viskit discrete-event simulation tool
• Distributed Interactive Simulation (DIS) protocol
  for real-time operation
• Cluster control
• X3D visualization of scenario progress
• using open-source Xj3D browser
• Analytic assessment report generator

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ABOT oil terminal

• Scenario snapshots

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Bremerton harbor

• Scenario snapshots

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Analytic assessment report generator

• Automatically integrate analytic products created
  during problem setup, exploration
• Prompt for analyst comments at appropriate
  locations in the report
• Success criteria thorough, easy
• First study proposed Pearl Harbor, 1Q 2006
• Thesis product, LT Pat Sullivan USN
• Work in progress

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Related Work

• Autonomous Undermanned Vehicle Workbench

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AUV Workbench

• Underwater, air, surface unmanned vehicles
• Build scientific tactical decision aid (TDA) that
  includes full-fidelity physics of motion,
  collision, sensing
• Rehearsal mission planning
• Reality real-time tasking and monitoring
• Replay playback telemetry
• Multiple sponsors partners
• Open source, open standards, new techology
• Extensible 3D Graphics (X3D) for large worlds
• XML, binary compression for GIG Web Services

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REMUS mission search, from above
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REMUS mission search, from behind
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Conclusions and Recommendations
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Conclusions, Recommendations

• Tool development is now mature enough to pursue
  combined modeling effort
• Singapore harbor, island, lines of approach
• Straits of Malacca
• Open standards, open source for interoperability
• Access sharing issues appear sensitive,
  solvable
• Collaborative efforts welcome

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Contact

• Don Brutzman
• brutzman_at_nps.navy.mil
• http//web.nps.navy.mil/brutzman
• Code USW/Br, Naval Postgraduate School
• Monterey California 93943-5000 USA
• 1.831.656.2149 voice
• 1.831.656.7599 fax