Jack Hayes

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International Association ofEmergency Managers
Improved Weather Servicesto Protect America

• Jack Hayes
• NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather
  Services, and National Weather Service Director
• Overland Park, Kansas
• November 17, 2008

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2008 A Year of Extremes
January 10Caledonia, MS

• EF-3 Tornado
• 41 min. lead time
• 2,000 people insideonly 3 minor injuries

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2008 A Year of Extremes
February 5-6, 2008Super Tuesday Outbreak

• 63 tornadoes
• 17 minute lead time
• 57 fatalities

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2008 A Year of Extremes
Spring Midwest Flooding

• Flooding exceeded 500-year levels
• Warning lead times nearly twice national goal
• Seasonal outlook highlighted major flooding
  potential

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2008 A Year of Extremes
September 2008Hurricane Ike

• Category 2 at landfall
• Accurate track forecast
• Good coordination across government agencies

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Improved Tornado Warnings
Tornado Warning Lead Time
Improvement
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Improved Flash Flood Warnings
Flash Flood Warning Lead Time
Improvement
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Improved HurricaneTrack Forecasts
48-Hour Hurricane Track Forecast Error
Improvement
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Improved Tornado Warnings
Tornado False Alarm Rate
Slight Improvement
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Improved Hurricane Intensity Forecasts
48 hr Hurricane Intensity Forecast Error
Slight Improvement
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Recent Accomplishments
Improved Radar Capabilities
After
Before

• Added Super Resolution to NEXRAD
• Finer scale detail
• Increased range ofDoppler data by 44 miles
• More accurate, timely warnings

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Recent Accomplishments
Improved Tornado Warnings Storm-Based Warnings

• More accurate, timely warnings
• Tornado lead times now 14 minutes(goal was 11
  min.)
• Tornado accuracy now 72(goal was 67)
• Tornado false alarm rate now 73(goal was 74)

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Recent Accomplishments
Hurricane Model Improvements

• Improved Hurricane Forecasts
• Upgraded HWRF model
• Improved topography
• Improved science
• Conducted experimental runsat Univ. TexasAustin
  for Ike
• Demonstrates potential for significant
  improvement of track and intensity forecasts at
  days 3-5

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Recent Accomplishments
Expanded Coverage of Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Service

• Added nearly 300 forecast locations in 2008
• 2,237 locations now available on the Web
• Flash flood warninglead times increasedmore
  than 30

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Recent Accomplishments
Improved Warning DeliveryNOAA Weather Radio All
Hazards (NWR)

• 97,000 NWRs distributed to public schools
• 182,000 NWRs to be distributed in FY 09
• All schools K-12 Univ.to be covered

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Increased National Needs

• Population is increasing in vulnerable locations
• Skies are increasingly crowded
• Weather delays increasing
• Water shortage concerns
• Potential climate change impacts
• Sensitivity of new technologies to environmental
  hazards
• Navigation Communication

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Where Were Headed

• Severe Weather Services
• Improved Science Tech
• Radar enhancements
• Model enhancements
• National mesonet
• Improved Services
• Longer lead times for tornadoes and severe
  thunderstorms
• Decreased warned areas and false alarms

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Where Were Headed

• Tropical Cyclone Services
• Improved Science Tech
• Improved observations
• Satellites, UAS
• Mesonets
• High resolution models
• Improved Services
• Warning lead times forlandfall from 24 hours to
  days
• 50 reduction in forecast errors in track and
  intensity
• Increase forecast accuracy for rapid intensity
  change
• Extended lead time for forecasts out to 7 days

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Where Were Headed

• Winter Weather Services
• Improved Science Tech
• Radar enhancements
• Satellites
• Global and regional modelenhancements
• National mesonet
• Improved Services
• Warning lead time increases from 18 hours to
  days
• Reliable forecasts 7-10 days
• Better storm forecastsonset, intensity, duration

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Where Were Headed
Integrated WaterResource Services

• Improved Science Tech
• Observation enhancements
• Modeling enhancements
• New forecast locations
• Improved Services
• Improved flood risk detection
• New high-resolution, gridded water quantity,
  quality, and soil moisture forecasts
• New flood inundation mapping

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Where Were Headed

• Communicating Forecast Confidence
• Explicit information on thecertainty of a
  forecast to aidin decision making
• Confidence levels and probabilities
• Educate users on how to interpretinformation for
  decision making

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Service DeliveryIncident Meteorologists
Not Just For Fires Anymore!
Aug. 2007 Minneapolis Bridge Collapse
Spring 2008 Midwest Flooding
Oct. 2007 Santa Ana Recovery Efforts
Dec. 2007 PVC Pipe Factory Fire
Sept. 2008 Hurricane Ike
May 2007 EF-5 Tornado in Greensburg, KS
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Service DeliveryImproved Decision Support

• Provide essential environmental data,
  information, forecasts and warnings for more
  informed decisions
• Enhance services for high-impact events
• Personal interaction with decisionmakersindividu
  als and groups
• Integration of advanced technologies to enhance
  communication during high-impact events

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Working Togetherto Achieve Success

• U.S. severe weather among worlds worst
• U.S. needs the worlds best Weather Service
• Partnerships with emergency managers essential

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