Managing Uncertainty in science for suSTainability future research challenges for Europe

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Managing Uncertainty in science for
suSTainability future research challenges for
Europe

• Jeroen van der Sluijs (UU Copernicus Institute)
• j.p.vandersluijs_at_chem.uu.nl

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Uncertainty in knowledge based society the
problem

• 1984 Keepin Wynne
• Despite the appearance of analytical rigour,
  IIASAs widely acclaimed global energy
  projections are highly unstable and based on
  informal guesswork. This results from inadequate
  peer review and quality control, raising
  questions about political bias in scientific
  analysis.

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RIVM / De Kwaadsteniet (1999)

• RIVM over-exact prognoses based on virtual
  reality of computer models
• Newspaper headlines
• Environmental institute lies and deceits
• Fuss in parliament after criticism on
  environmental numbers
• The bankruptcy of the environmental numbers
• Society has a right on fair information, RIVM
  does not provide it

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Harremoes et al. 2001 EEA report Late lessons
from early warnings the precautionary principle
1896-2000

• 12 lessons, amongst which
• Acknowledge and respond to ignorance, as well as
  uncertainty and risk
• Identify and work to reduce blind spots and gaps
  in scientific knowledge
• Ensure use of 'lay' and local knowledge
• Take full account of the assumptions and values
  of different social groups

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Crossing the disciplinary boundaries

• Once environmental numbers are thrown over the
  disciplinary fence, important caveats tend to be
  ignored, uncertainties compressed and numbers
  used at face value
• e.g. Climate Sensitivity, see Van der Sluijs,
  Wynne, Shackley, 1998

?
!
Resulting misconception Worst case 4.5C
1.5-4.5 C
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The certainty trough (McKenzie, 1990)
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Developments

• Funtowicz and Ravetz book (1990) / Morgan and
  Henrion book (1990)
• Good Practice Guidance (IPCC, 1999 CLRTAP, 2001)
• RIVM Leidraad uncertainty management (2001-2002)
• www.nusap.net
• MUST-EoI
• Ph.D. theses devoted to uncertainty management
• Jeroen van der Sluijs (1997)
• Serafin Corral (2000)
• Marjolein van Asselt (2000)
• John van Aardenne (2002)
• Jos Olivier (2002)
• Penny Kloprogge (2003)
• Simône Huijs (2003)
• Matthieu Craye (2004)

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Conferences and workshops

• EFIEA Uncertainty workshop (Baden, 10-18 July
  1999)
• NUSAP-TIMER workshop (Loosdrecht, June 2001)
• Expert workshop RIVM leidraad Uncertainty
  Management (Utrecht, 25-10-2001) User workshop
  (Bilthoven, 22-11-2001)
• UN/ECE Uncertainty Treatment in Integrated
  Assessment Modelling (Laxenburg, January 24,
  2002)
• FP6-MUST workshop (Brussels, November 11, 2002)
• JRC IPSC EEA workshop Interfaces between
  science society (Autumn 2003)
• International Symposium Uncertainty and
  Precaution in Environmental Management
  (Copenhagen, June 7-9, 2004 Poul Harremoës, DTU)

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Insights on uncertainty

• Uncertainty is partly socially constructed and
  its assessment always involves subjective
  judgement
• Omitting uncertainty management leads to scandals
  and crisis
• More research does not necessarily reduce
  uncertainty
• may reveal unforeseen complexities
• irreducible uncertainty (intrinsic or
  practically)
• Quality relates to fitness for function
• High quality ? low uncertainty
• Shift in focus needed from reducing uncertainty
  towards a systematic management of uncertainty

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Sorts of uncertainty

• Technical (inexactness)
• Methodological (unreliability)
• Epistemological (ignorance)
• NUSAP Qualified Quantities
• (Funtowicz and Ravetz, 1990)

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Locations of uncertainty

• Sociopolitical and institutional context
• System boundary problem framing
• System boundary
• Problem framing
• Scenario framing (storylines)
• Model/instrument
• Indicators
• Conceptual model structure / assumptions
• Technical model structure
• Parameters
• Inputs
• Scenarios
• Data

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Aim of a FP6 MUST Network of Excellence

• Increase Europe's capacity to manage and surmount
  uncertainties surrounding knowledge production
  and use in designing and implementing
  precautionary policies and sustainable
  development.

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Challenges for MUST

• Dissemination of state of the art
• Facilitate fruitful utilisation of
  complementarity of formal, participatory,
  deliberative and institutional approaches to
  assess and manage uncertainty?towards a new
  strategy for uncertainty management
• Enhanced conceptualisation of uncertainty
• Analysis of knowledge utilisation under
  uncertainty
• Address institutional changes required for full
  fledged uncertainty management

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Workshop Program

• 1430 Jeroen van der Sluijs MUST research
  challenges
• 1450 Jerry Ravetz Policy critical ignorance
• 1510 Andrea Saltelli Quantitative methods
• 1530 Jacquie Burgess Deliberative methods
• 1550 Break
• 1600 Joachim Spangenberg Extended peer
  processes
• 1620 Penny Kloprogge Coping with
  value-ladenness
• 1640 Ângela Pereira Communication of
  uncertainty
• 1700 Matthias Kaiser Uncertainty and
  precaution
• 1720 Discussion
• 18.00 End