Emerging Exurbia: A comparative analysis of exurban settlement patterns across the US

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Emerging ExurbiaA comparative analysis of
exurban settlement patterns across the US

• Jill Clark, Exurban Change Project, AEDE and HCRD
• Elena Irwin, Assistant Professor, AEDE
• Ron McChesney, PhD Candidate, Geography

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Motivation

• In the US, exurbanization is the trend.
• Being able to measure and understand
  exurbanization patterns lead to better evaluation
  of impacts AND more informed planning and policy
  decision.
• Previous problems of scope.
• Previous problems of scale.

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Spatial Patterns of Exurbanization in the US

• Examine the type, amount and patterns of land
  settlement in U.S. exurban areas
• Compare regional patterns of exurbanization and
  how they differ across metro areas
• Correlate these patterns with socio-demographic,
  landscape factors and other spatial
  characteristics

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Previous Approachesfor Defining Exurbia

• Definitions
• Spectorsky (1955), Nelson (1992), Daniels(1999),
  Audirac (1999)
• Operationalization
• Friedmann (1968), Healy and Short (1981), Lamb
  (1983), Blumenfeld (1983), Daniels, Nelson,
  Galster et al.(2001), Theobald (2001), Wolman et
  al. (2005)

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Landscan (2002)

• Model development by US DOE, Oakridge
• Estimates worldwide ambient population at 30 x
  30 resolution
• Assigns each cells with population probability,
  using
• Transportation networks, land cover, slope and
  nighttime lights

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Defining and Measuring Exurbia

• Study Area
• Lower 48 states
• 356 Metropolitan Statistical Area
• minus the Urbanized Areas
• a proxy for commuting
• Minus federal land and major water bodies
• Settlement Types

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Study Area
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Atlanta, GA
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Dallas, TX
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Portland, Oregon
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Pictures from Ohio
High Density
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Pictures from Ohio
Medium/Exurban Density
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Pictures from Ohio
Medium/Exurban Density
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Pictures from Ohio
Low Density/Emerging Exurbia
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Pictures from Ohio
Very Low Density
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US Totals
excluding federal lands
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Study Area Totals
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Census Regions
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Average Amount of Exurban (Medium Density)
Development by MSA by Region
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Bottom 20 Metro Areas amount of exurban
settlement pattern
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Top 20 Metro Areas amount of exurban settlement
pattern
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Drivers of Exurbanization

• Urban pushes
• Rural draws
• Deconcentration of employment
• Technological innovations
• Policy favoring exurban development

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Correlated Conditions.

• DEPENDENT VARIABLE amount of exurban (medium
  density) development in study area
• Region
• Population Characteristics
• Central urbanized area population
• Central urbanized area density -
• Population change, in absolute s
• Number of urban clusters
• Average household income

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Correlated Conditions.

• DEPENDENT VARIABLE amount of exurban (medium
  density) development in study area
• Geographic Characteristics
• Accessibility amount of roadway outside
  Urbanized Area
• Total square miles of metro area
• Longer commutes
• Percent of jobs in central business district

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Selected Conditions Averages by MSA by Quartile
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Potential Implications

• Local governments
• Do local governments have the capacity to handle
  growth?
• fiscal, professional, technical
• What are the changes occurring in local political
  structure?
• Local and Regional Economics
• How does this type of settlement trend affect
  regional economic stability?
• What about traditional centers of commerce? Do
  we throw away Main Street America?
• Exurbia as its own development pattern
• Is exurbia different than suburbia, or, just a
  step along the way? Do researchers/planners/polic
  y-makers need to recognize this type of
  settlement pattern as having its own set of
  characteristics?
• Do these new residents differ from the
  traditional socioeconomic profile?
• What are the effects on social capital?

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Further Research

• Analyzing Pattern
• Is the pattern of suburbanization different than
  exurbanizationin other words, will exurbs become
  suburbs?
• Connecting Process to Pattern
• What role does advancing technology play in how
  the landscape is settled? regional or global
  process
• How do local government land use policies affect
  growth patterns? local process

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http//aede.osu.edu/programs/exurbs/
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Contact Information

• Jill Clark clark.1099_at_osu.edu
• Elena Irwin irwin.78_at_osu.edu
• Ron McChesney mcchesney.11_at_osu.edu