Advancing human security through knowledgebased approaches to reducing vulnerability and environment

1
Advancing human security through knowledge-based
approaches to reducing vulnerability and
environmental risks
2
IOM UNFPA Expert Workshop International
Dialogue on Migration - Bangkok, 2007

• Impact of Gradual Environmental Change on
  Migration a Global perspective of Trends and
  Solutions
• Prof. Dr. Ing. Janos J. Bogardi

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Starting Statements

• Climate has never been stable but we did not
  really notice.
• Land degradation started with agriculture,
  irrigation several thousand years ago.
• Urbanisation was seen as a sign of development.
• Migration is a steady component of human history.
• but things are spiraling out of control

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IPCC - Contribution of Working Group 1 to 4th
Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis -
February 2007

• Source
• IPCC 2007 Climate Change 2007 The Physical
  Science Basis - Summary for Policy Makers.
  Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fourth
  Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
  on Climate Change. Formally approved at the 10th
  Session of Working Group I of the IPCC, Paris,
  February 2007, p.6

5
IPCC - Contribution of Working Group 1 to 4th
Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis -
February 2007
Source IPCC 2007 Climate Change 2007 The
Physical Science Basis - Summary for Policy
Makers. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change. Formally approved at
the 10th Session of Working Group I of the IPCC,
Paris, February 2007, p.3
6
IPCC - Contribution of Working Group 1 to 4th
Assessment Report The Physical Science Basis -
February 2007
Source IPCC 2007 Climate Change 2007 The
Physical Science Basis - Summary for Policy
Makers. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change. Formally approved at
the 10th Session of Working Group I of the IPCC,
Paris, February 2007, p.15
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Millenium Ecosystem Assessment 2005

• 15 of 24 ecosystem services are degraded or
  utilised in an unsustainable way, mainly by
  humans for the supply of specific services.
• This could accelerate the degradation of
  ecosystems - scientific evidence still required.
• The poor and especially rural poor are suffering
  most by the decline in ecosystem services.
• 2 billion people living in dry regions are
  extremely vulnerable to the loss of ecosystem
  services.

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Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005 Some
Conclusions on Drylands

• 10 to 20 percent of drylands are already
  degraded.
• Pressure is increasing on dryland ecosystems for
  providing services such as food, and water for
  humans livestock, irrigation, and sanitation.
• Climate change is likely to increase water
  scarcity in regions that are already under water
  stress.
• Droughts are becoming more frequent and their
  continuous reoccurrence can overcome the coping
  mechanisms of communities.

Source MA. 2005 Ecosystems and Human
Well-being Desertification Synthesis. World
Resources Institute, Washington, DC.
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Global Desertification Vulnerability
Source USDA-NRCS. http//soils.usda.gov/use/world
soils/mapindex/desert.html
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The Unstoppable Trend of Urbanisation

• The accelerating spiral

In 2000 16 cities had more than 10 million
inhabitants 4 of the world population

• How many people must remain in the rural
  environment?

• Good Estimate of people needed to produce our
  food (could go down to 5??)

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Income in small cities - Russia
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Income in major cities - Russia
RF 2001 average income 2877,3 rMSL 1500 r
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Human Security is at Stake
Societal activities
Environmental Degradation swift natural hazard
events climate change variability and change
Sustainable Human Development
Freedom from Want
Freedom from Fear
Freedom from Hazard Impacts
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The Widening Gaps Pull and Push
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Migration!

• Coping with global inequalities
• Voluntary or forced?
• How far environmentally driven?

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Tracing the Tracks

• Where are the migrants coming from?
• Where will the migrants be coming from?
• Where are they going?

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Net Emigration
Territory size shows the relative quantity of net
emigration in all territories (emigration less
immigration).
Source SASI Group (University of Sheffield),
Newman (University of Michigan) 2006, Net
Emigration, http//www.worldmapper.org/posters/wor
ldmapper_map18_ver5.pdf, accessed 15 February
2007
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Net Immigration
Territory size shows the relative quantity of net
immigration in all territories (immigration less
emigration).
Source SASI Group (University of Sheffield),
Newman (University of Michigan) 2006,Net
Immigration http//www.worldmapper.org/posters/wor
ldmapper_map17_ver5.pdf, accessed 15 Feb 2007
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World Wealth Levels per Capita
Source WIDER 2006 Wider Angle, No. 2, p4,
World Institute for Development Economics
Research, UNU, Finland
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World Wealth Levels per Capita
Source WIDER 2006 Wider Angle, No. 2, p6,
World Institute for Development Economics
Research, UNU, Finland
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World Population Density and Potential Sea Level
Rise up to 1 metre
Africa Nigeria, Cameroon, Gabon, Somalia, Kenya,
Tanzania Asia Russia, Vietnam, India,
Bangladesh, Malaysia, Indonesia Australia West
Pacific Papua New Guinea, Australia, Fiji and
Sth Pacific Islands Europe Middle East
Netherlands, Greenland, Ukraine and UK
coastline South America Venezuela, Guyan,
Suriname, French Guiana, Brazil and Chile North
America USA, Canada and Cuba
Source of sea-level rise date http//www.geo.ariz
ona.edu/dgesl/research/other/climate_change_and_se
a_level/sea_level_rise/sea_level_rise_old.htmimag
es
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The guiding lights
Target zones of internal displacements and
international migration
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Migrations due to Mixture of Push and Pull
Factors

• Some root causes include (Boswell and Crisp,
  2004 Hatton and Williamson, 2003 Schwartz and
  Notoni, 1994)
• Economic factors (poverty, unemployment, wage
  disparities)
• Social factors (poor welfare or education
  demography)
• Environmental factors (degradation of ecosystems)
• Degraded security conditions (disrespect for
  human rights)
• Existence of migrant networks

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Migration Some Potential Environmental Drivers

• Droughts and loss of land productivity can become
  important factors triggering the movement of
  people from drylands to other areas (MA, 2005),
  particularly once coping mechanisms and
  adaptation strategies are impaired by the loss of
  ecosystem services.
• Sea level rise and environmental calamities may
  trigger migration.
• Disasters of natural origin may prompt people
  to leave.

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Debate over the Concept of Environmental
Migrants / Refugees

• Critics (not exhaustive list)
• Multiple push pull factors so why highlight
  the environmental component?
• Poor definition of what is an Environmental
  Migrant/Refugee
• Risk of watering-down 1951 Convention relating to
  the Status of Refugees
• Use the argument put forward by others that
  desertification, land degradation, climate change
  and sea level rise are not as serious problems as
  characterised by certain lobbies

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Adopting a Precautionary Principle

• estimates and projections of environmental
  refugees are based almost entirely on anecdotal
  evidence () but it is important not to
  trivialize the role environmental change and
  resource depletion may play in population
  movement. (Lonergan and Swain 19992)
• Actions above all are needed to tackle the issue
• Actions related to the reduction of
  desertification rates and climate change
  (considering all the dimensions) and when
  possible implement restoration and adaptation
  strategies
• Policies and actions that deal with the immediate
  and/or forthcoming issue of environmental
  migration / refugees
• The two need to be further developed in parallel

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Suggestion Establish an Intergovernmental Panel
on Land Degradation

• Concept along the lines of the IPCC
• Assess scientific, technical and socio-economic
  information to understand
• risks linked to human-induced land degradation
• potential impacts
• options for adaptation and mitigation
• Scientific approach, not advocacy
• Regular assessments of state of knowledge on our
  lands and their soils including the social
  implications

Source Vlek. 2005 Nothing begets nothing. The
creeping disaster of land degradation.
InterSecTions 1, UNU-EHS
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Proposed Categories of Environmental Migrants

• Environmentally motivated migrants
• pre-empting the worst
• Individuals may leave a deteriorating
  environment which could still be rehabilitated
• Both temporary and permanent displacement /
  migration
• Examples depopulation of old industrial and
  mining areas, most rural exoduses
• Case rural exodus from Northeast Brazil to Sao
  Paolo due to long dry spells

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Proposed Categories of Environmental
MigrantsContd

• Environmentally forced migrants
• avoiding the worst
• Individuals have to leave due to loss of
  livelihood
• Mainly permanent displacement / migration
• Examples displacement or migration due to
  sea-level rise or loss of topsoil
• Case out migration from the Sahel zone of Africa
  due to desertification

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Proposed Categories of Environmental
MigrantsContd

• Environmental refugees
• fleeing the worst
• Individuals flee rather than leave
• Includes disaster refugees
• Both temporary and permanent displacement /
  migration
• Resource base (ecosystem) may be severely
  affected
• Examples displacement or migration due to
  floods, extensive drought
• Case exodus due to Hurricane Katrina in New
  Orleans 2005

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Five Pronged Approach

• Science
• Establish and implement programs to allow a
  better understanding between the cause-effects
  mechanisms between degradation of ecosystems and
  social systems
• Develop proper definitions of environmental
  migrations, environmental migrant/refugee.
• Provide long-term, sustained funding for
  research.
• Awareness
• Raise knowledge-based public and political
  awareness and its social, economic, environmental
  dimensions

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Five Pronged Approach (contd)

• Legislation
• Establish and implement a framework of
  recognition of environmental migrants such as in
  a specific Convention or in parts of
  Intergovernmental Environmental Treaties
• Humanitarian aid
• Empower the United Nations system and other major
  assistance organisations to provide aid to
  environmental migrants / refugees
• Institutional
• Devise concepts and establish institutions that
  are able to assist the flux of environmental
  migrants

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Migration a new look at an old problem within
the UN system

• 1994 Re-thinking of migrations originated at the
  International Conference on Population and
  Development.
• 2003 High-Level Dialogue on international
  migrations and development.
• 2003 Launch of Global Commission on
  International Migration.
• 2005 Establishment of a high-level
  inter-institutional group to ensure effective
  institutional response to international
  migration.

UN, 2006
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Migration a new look at an old problem within
the UN system contd

• 2006 Appointment of Special Representative on
  International Migration and Development.
• 2006 Outcome of the High-Level Dialogue -
  proposal by the Secretary-General to establish a
  consultative Forum to offer Governments a venue
  to discuss issues related to international
  migration and development.
• 2007 IOM UNFPA Expert Workshop International
  Dialogue on Migration Bangkok, 22-23 February.
• 2007 UNU, UNHCR, GEF-UNDP information event on
  Environmental Refugees the Forgotten Migrants
  in New York, UN Headquarters, 16 May.

UN, 2006
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Appeal

• Enhance the ongoing international debate on
  migration with the environmental component!

Thank you.