Double Exposure: Climate Change Impacts in the Context of Economic Globalization

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Double Exposure Climate Change Impacts in the
Context of Economic Globalization
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Concepts

• Double Exposure Regions, sectors, ecosystems,
  and social groups will be confronted by both the
  impacts of climate change and consequences of
  globalization. New patterns of winners and losers
  will emerge.
• What does exposure to multiple stressors mean for
  vulnerability? Vulnerability is dynamic. In the
  case of agriculture, structural economic changes
  must be addressed at the same time as
  environmental changes.

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Case Studies

• Southern Africa
• India
• Cuba

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Double Exposure Assessing Vulnerability to
Climate Change and Economic Globalization in India
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Assessing vulnerability

• CICERO, Rutgers, TERI, IISD study supported by
  CIDA and Norwegian Foreign Ministry
• Methodology Macro-level vulnerability profile,
  local case studies, policy analysis
• Goal Identify highly vulnerable districts to
  identify the factors that enhance or constrain
  coping and adaptive capacity

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Elements of vulnerability profiles

• Biophysical vulnerability
• Soil degradation and cover
• Flood prone districts
• Groundwater extraction

Climate sensitivity index (precipitation
variability and dryness)
Base vulnerability index
Trade sensitivity index (port distance and
export- import- crops)

• Socioeconomic vulnerability
• Agricultural workers and laborers
• Irrigation availability
• Literacy
• Infrastructure
• Gender discrimination

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Case Studies

• How are farmers influenced by economic changes?
• How do they cope with climate variability?
• How may global changes influence adaptive
  capacity?

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ANANTAPUR
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ANANTAPUR
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Anantapur District, Andhra Pradesh

• Small and marginal farmers, landless laborers
• Dry, rainfed agriculture
• Most land devoted to groundnut production
• Profitability reduced in 1990s due to growing
  cost of cultivation, stagnation or decrease in
  output prices, consecutive drought, and pest
  problems
• Desperate situation has led to suicides among
  farmers

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Groundnut production

• Sufficiency in edible oils gained by early 90s
  (97 in 92/93).
• Opening of the Indian edible oil market to
  imports
• Palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia has been a
  main competitor
• Domestic edible oil prices move with
  international prices good crop plus oversupply
  of imports means low prices.
• Duty hikes in India (to protect farmers) often
  ineffective because of excess production and
  drops in international prices

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Implications for farmers

• Profitability is being squeezed
• Difficult to repay creditors
• Oilseed industry is dying
• Lack of an alternative rainfed crop that is
  viable for small and marginal farmers
• Options Leave agriculture

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Double Exposure

• Climate variability and change is an added stress
  to farmers in some case, it is what pushes them
  over the edge.
• Vulnerability to global environmental change must
  be assessed within the context of multiple
  stressors.