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Welcome The Visit USA Association UK Ltd World Travel Market Briefing 9th November 2009

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Title: Welcome The Visit USA Association UK Ltd World Travel Market Briefing 9th November 2009


1
WelcomeThe Visit USA Association (UK)
LtdWorld Travel Market Briefing9th November
2009
2
WTM Briefing 9th November 2009
  • Kate Burgess-Craddy
  • Chair
  • The Visit USA Association (UK) Ltd

3
WTM Briefing 9th November 2009
  • Todays Agenda
  • 0835-0845 Visit USA Marketing 2010 Plans
  • Alan Waddell
  • VUSA Chief Operating Officer
  • 0845-0900 Update on The Travel Promotion Act
  • Roger Dow
  • President CEO, US Travel Association
  • 0900-0915 2009 2010 Results Forecast
  • Helen Marano
  • Director , Travel Tourism Industries
  • Department of Commerce, Washington

4
WTM Briefing 9th November 2009
  • Highlights
  • More VUSA members now 201
  • More VUSA activities than ever
  • More proactive meeting the needs of VUSA
    members
  • Healthy Finances
  • Very active Board Committees
  • Downside
  • Ongoing economic climate

5
WTM Briefing 9th November 2009
  • Current Issues
  • Travel Promotion Act
  • - Looking forward to US promotion
  • - Presume 2011 start up
  • - Need to redefine VUSA role to
  • maximise joint strengths
  • - Must be relevant to local market
  • ESTA Operating without problem
  • BUT - very real concern about proposed
    fee to fund TPA

6
WTM Briefing 9th November 2009
  • Chief Operating Officer Report
  • Alan Waddell

7
WTM Briefing 9th November 2009
  • UK-USA Passenger Arrivals
  • July 2009 367.7k 14.9
  • Year-to -date 2009 2149.1k 16.9
  • Small improving trend but still well down

8
WTM Briefing 9th November 2009
  • Are you making best use of the Visit USA Website
    ?
  • Entry Upgrade to make your company standout
    from 25
  • Brochure Request Service 20k members brochures
    requested in 2009
  • Advertising from only 80 per month
  • Hyperlink back to your site - 100
  • New for 2010
  • Online Membership Application
  • Member Video Search Request Feature
  • Enhanced Member Press Release Facility

9

10
WTM Briefing 9th November 2009
  • Marketing
  • Brochure Request Direct Mail January - 349
  • Visit USA Travel Planner here today
  • Travel News USA distribution increased to 60k
  • Brochure Distribution available to all members
  • Visit USA Database available to all members

11
WTM Briefing 9th November 2009
  • Visit USA On-line Training Programme
  • 1803 students now enrolled with 335 passes
    Standard Level 179
  • at Advanced Level
  • High quality very comprehensive programme in 12
    modules
  • Successful students featured in Visit USA Travel
  • Planner on Visit USA Website
  • New Support programme inc Social Events, USA
    Newsletter
  • Competitions Incentives, Fam Trips fast track
  • Linked to Travel Agent Partner Programme
  • Programme Licensing sponsorships
  • Programme validation - UK Further Education
    Community

12
WTM Briefing 9th November 2009
  • Travel Agents Partner Programme
  • Available to all agents
  • Membership includes entry in VUSA Website
  • coverage in VUSA Travel Planner
  • Linked to Training Programme - entries upgraded
  • when staff pass Standard or Advance level
  • Further roll out now training update complete

13
WTM Briefing 9th November 2009
  • PR Activities
  • Visit USA Media Marketplace Awards 7th July
    2009
  • - 77 media in attendance
  • - 42 stand participants at Marketplace
  • - National, trade and broadcast coverage of
    awards
  • Next major event VUSA media reception Jan 12th
  • Advertorial campaign every month in 2010

14
WTM Briefing 9th November 2009
  • Visit USA Road Shows 2009
  • Tues 1st Dec Ashford, Ashford Int Hotel
  • Wed 2nd Dec Liverpool Crowne Plaza Hotel
  • Thu 3rd Dec Belfast Ramada Hotel
  • 100-200 Agents expected at each show
  • Format includes -  Free flowing exhibition,
    Dinner, Entertainment, Presentations and Quiz
  • Prizes on the night include the chance for an
    agent to Win a Holiday of a Lifetime to Chicago
    and New York

15
WTM Briefing 9th November 2009
  • Visit USA Ball 2010
  • 2009 Ball a sell-out !
  • Next Year - Thursday 8th July
  • Back to The Savoy in the Lancaster Room
  • Full details later this year
  • Book Early !!!

16
WTM Briefing 9th November 2009
  • The Travel Promotion Act
  • Roger Dow
  • President CEO
  • US Travel Association
  • Washington

17
(No Transcript)
18
WTM Briefing 9th November 2009
  • UK-USA 2009 Arrivals 2010 Forecast
  • Helen Marano
  • Director
  • Office of Travel Tourism Industries
  • Department of Commerce, Washington

19
International Travel to the U.S.
Presented to Visit USA AssociationMeeting--U.K.
Annual General Meeting
Presented by Helen Marano Office of Travel and
Tourism Industries International Trade
Administration U.S. Department of
Commerce November 2009
20
Department of Commerce Agencies Involved
  • Department of Commerce (DOC)
  • International Trade Administration (ITA)
  • Manufacturing and Services (MAS)
  • Services (S)
  • Office of Travel and Tourism Industries
    (OTTI)

21
U.S. Department Of CommerceInternational Trade
Administration Tourism Resources
OFFICE OF TRAVEL TOURISM INDUSTRIES
Office of Domestic Operations 105 U.S. Offices
Foreign Commercial Service 151 Offices in 83
Countries
http//www.buyusa.gov/eme/tra.html
http//trade.gov/cs/
22
U.S. Visitors Spending(1996-2008)
Visitor spending (receipts) closely mirrors
visitor volume. Spending was a record 142
billion in 2008, while visitor volume was a
record 58.0 million.
Spending
Visitors
Sources Department of Commerce, Office of
Tourism Industries Department of Commerce,
Bureau of Economic Analysis Statistics Canada
Banco de Mexico.
23
Visitor Volume Trends from Western Europe and the
U.K.
Western Europe
United Kingdom
millions of visitors
millions of visitors
24
Top Origin Markets forInternational Travelers to
the U.S. (2008 vs. 2007 2000)
Origin of Visitor 2008 08 / 07 08 /
00 (000s) ( change) ( change)
International Total 58,015 4 13 1 Canada 18,9
10 7 29 2 Mexico 13,763 -4 30 Overseas
25,341 6 -2 3 United Kingdom 4,565 1 -3 4
Japan 3,250 -8 -36 5 Germany 1,782 17 0 6 F
rance 1,244 25 14 7 Italy 779 23 27 8 Brazil
769 20 4 9 South Korea 759 -6 15 10 Austral
ia 690 3 28
International travelers include all countries
generating visitors to the U.S. Overseas
includes all countries except Canada and Mexico.
25
Top Ten Travel Export Markets(2008 record
receipts/year)
Total Travel Record Year Receipts Travel
Record Origin Country 2008 Receipts
Set (bil) (bil)
Canada 18.66 2008 United Kingdom 17.72 2008 J
apan 14.55 17.80 1995 Mexico
9.74 2008 Germany 6.68 2008 France 4.78 200
8 India 4.29 2008 Brazil 4.16 2008 Australia
3.73 2008 Italy 3.70 2008 U.S. TOTAL
141.71 2008
26
Top Origin Markets forInternational Travelers to
the U.S. (YTD 2009 through Aug.)
Origin of Visitor 2008 09 / 08 YTD (000s) (
change)
International Total 58,015 -9 1 Canada 18,910 -
8 2 Mexico 13,763 -6 Overseas
25,341 -9 3 United Kingdom 4,565 -16 4 Japa
n 3,250 -16 5 Germany 1,782 -6 6 France 1,244
-3 7 Italy 779 -7 8 Brazil 769 11 9 South
Korea 759 -11 10 Australia 690 -2
International travelers include all countries
generating visitors to the U.S. Overseas
includes all countries except Canada and Mexico.
27
Top States Visited by U.K. Visitors(2008 vs.
2000)
2000 2008
Florida 35.1 1 30.3 1 New York 25.3 2 29.6 2 Calif
ornia 16.3 3 17.8 3 Nevada 4 4 Illinois 6
5 Massachusetts 5 6 Pennsylvania 11 7 Tex
as 7 8 New Jersey 8 9 Arizona 10 10 Vi
rginia 11 Colorado 9 12
Insufficient sample for a visitation estimate,
but based upon survey research, next largest
visited states. Insufficient sample for a
visitation estimate and two states had larger
visitation estimates for 2000.
28
Advance Planning Time(leisure VFR only mean
average number of days)
days
29
Advance Airline Reservation(leisure VFR only
mean average number of days)
days
30
Airline Booking Source(leisure VFR only)
using resource
Travel Agent
Personal Computer
Airline Directly
Tour Operator
31
Information Sources(leisure VFR only)
days
Travel Agency
Personal Computer
32
Information Sources (continued leisure VFR
only)
using resource
Airline Directly
Friends or Relatives
Travel Guides
Tour Company
33
Package vs. Independent Travel (leisure VFR
only)
days
Independent
Package
34
Exchange Rate vs. U.K. Travel to the U.S.monthly
2000-current
35
U.K. Travel Trade BarometerShort-Term Forecast
  • Qualitative assessment of recent performance,
    future bookings, and assessment of barriers to
    entry.
  • Highlighted Findings
  • Confidence in recommending U.S. holiday has
    improved over the past two quarters after having
    dropped for two quarters.
  • Advance bookings 2 quarters out has been lower
    for four quarters for two-thirds of the travel
    trade.
  • Motivators and Deterrents
  • Entry/exit requirements consistently seen as
    deterrent for 60.
  • Economy seen as a deterrent for eight quarters.
  • Exchange rate returning to motivator after
    several qrts as deterrent.

36
Confidence in Recommending U.S.(now vs. same
time last year)
  • U.K. travel trade has remained confident in
    recommending U.S. as a holiday destination.

To what degree do YOU feel confident in
recommending the U.S. as a holiday destination in
ltltYEARgtgt, compared to last year?
37
Change in Advance Bookings Two Quarters
Ahead(now vs. same time last year)
  • Travel trade participants expecting declines in
    bookings outnumber those expecting increases
    2-to-1.

2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
To date, what was the level of change in BOOKINGS
for travel to the U.S. for the following travel
periods, compared to the same periods the
previous year?
38
Forecasts for International Traveland Trends to
Watch
39
www.despair.com
40
International Visitors to the U.S. and
Projections(2001-2013)
Arrivals in Millions
Sources U.S. Department of Commerce, ITA, Office
of Travel Tourism Industries Secretaria de
Turismo (Mexico) Statistics Canada IHS Global
Insight, Inc.
41
Short-Term Forecast OVERSEASInbound Travel to
the U.S.
42
Long-Term Forecast OVERSEASInbound Travel to
the U.S.
Origin Country 2008 Change 2013 Change
Forecast 08/07 Forecast 13/08 (000s) ()
(000s) ()
Total Overseas 25,340 6 27,432 8 United
Kingdom 4,565 1 4,486 -2 Japan 3,250 -8 3,134 -
4 Germany 1,782 17 1,814 2 France 1,244 25 1,3
65 10 Italy 779 23 785 1 Brazil 769 20 1,085 4
1 Korea 759 -6 850 12 Australia 690 3 798 16
Spain 658 27 640 -3 Netherlands 608 20 593 -2
43
Policy Challenges
  • Pandemic Issues
  • Travel Promotion Act
  • Visa Issues
  • Border Security IssuesWHTI and ESTA
  • Market Barriers
  • World Perceptions
  • Indicators of Competitiveness
  • Climate Change and Sustainability Issues

44
Travel Promotion Act
  • Purpose
  • To promote the U.S. to world travelers
  • To augment USG communications on entry/exit
    policies
  • Key Aspects
  • Bill in legislation now (S.1023) (Attached to
    H.R. 1299)
  • Establishes an independent non-profit Corporation
    for Travel Promotion with a Board of Directors
    appointed by the Secretary of Commerce.
  • Sets up an Office of Travel Promotion in Commerce
    and dramatically expands the Research programs.

45
The Quickest Way to U.S. International Tourism
Information http//tinet.ita.doc.gov
  • Includes International Travel Research Online
  • Order, read, download print the latest
    statistics on
  • international travel to and from the U.S.
  • All of the latest summary tables highlighting
    specific tourism trends
  • Over 30 plus market and regional profiles
    available
  • Forecast of international travelers to the U.S.
    through 2013
  • Information on OTTIs nine on-going market
    analysis (research) programs
  • Updated monthly statistics on arrivals and
    departures
  • Late-breaking TI News announcements and
    information releases
  • Links and information on the Commerce, Commercial
    Service Travel Tourism Team in the USA
    Abroad
  • Links to other organizations in the travel
    industry
  • Sign up for TINews, OTTIs FREE news service,
  • for the latest in tourism industry news and
    program updates

46
General Meeting 1st October 2009
  • UK-USA Travel Market - Where next ?
  • Kate Burgess-Craddy
  • Chair, Visit USA 2009/2010

47
UK-USA Travel Market - Where next ? Global
Overview
  • A reprise of the presentation made by
  • John Walker, Chairman of Oxford Economics
  • Visit USA General Meeting 1st October 2009

48
  • 1. GLOBAL TRAVEL TRENDS

49
2009 presents universal downturn
50
Stabilisation, but at low levels
51
Asia in the worst shape!
52
  • 2. UK TRAVEL MARKET

53
Era of steady UK outbound growth ends
54
Long haul has gained share of the UK market
55
The Americas have performed ok
56
But UK market still below 2000 peak
57
Recent performance
-17 YTD through June 2009
58
Recent performance
59
United Kingdom outlook
60
  • 3. WILL THE UK RECOVERY OUTPACE EUROPE?

61
Interest rates were cut sharply and rapidly
62
and QE aggressively implemented
63
The UK fiscal stimulus has been smaller
64
while the bailout costs have been high
65
and the UKs need to retrench is greatest
66
UK consumers benefit more from lower rates
67
UK consumers hobbled by high debt levels
68
UK households have suffered massive losses
69
UK consumers enjoy higher levels of wealth
70
Weaker sterling has boosted competitiveness
71
UK export sector is not like Germanys!
72
UK firms have cut stocks more aggressively
73
Rising unemployment will be a drag
74
Will the UK recover more quickly?
  • UK likely to enjoy stronger Q3/4 than elsewhere
    due to the boost from the end of the destocking
    cycle
  • However, there is little sign of a pickup in
    final demand so this is unlikely to be the start
    of a sustained recovery
  • The larger and more rapidly implemented policy
    stimulus should mean that the US leads the
    recovery
  • but the UK should lead the Eurozone given its
    more expansionary monetary policy and the
    weakness of sterling
  • Continuing consumer and business retrenchment
    will mean that the recovery will be gradual and
    much weaker than after previous recessions

75
UK will outpace Eurozone but lag US
76
Risks to the economic outlook
  • W-shaped cycle (25)
  • Growth initially boosted by inventory rebuild
  • But final demand remains weak as banks and
    households keep deleveraging
  • Oil/commodity price spike
  • Growth sluggish again in 2010H2 and 2011 after
    initial bounce back
  • V-Shaped recovery (20)
  • Return to growth boosts business and consumer
    confidence
  • Fiscal and monetary stimuli feed through quickly
  • Financial market rally becomes firmly established
  • Strong global rebound and weak pound boost exports

Short-term outlook
  • Deflation (7.5)
  • Renewed asset price weakness holds back banking
    recovery
  • Unemployment rises sharply further depressing
    consumption
  • Monetary/fiscal policy not effective as deflation
    grips
  • Economy flatlines in 2010 and beyond
  • Oxford forecast (45)
  • Monetary easing blunted by weak banks but
    eventually works
  • Gradual rise in business and consumer confidence
  • Bumpy growth profile due to VAT effect
  • Weak recovery in 2010, gaining traction in 2011

Medium-term outlook
77
Conclusions
  • Green shoots continue to appear. As the
    aggressive destocking round comes to a close,
    activity is heading back towards positive
    territory
  • Some signs that policy is working but more work
    still to do
  • Stock cycle and weak sterling mean UK is likely
    to outperform competitors in the short term
  • but consumer and business retrenchment will
    prevent a rapid rebound and the US is likely to
    overtake the UK on the back of its own large
    policy stimulus
  • The weakness of final demand means that a double
    dip is a significant risk once the
    stocks-related boost has passed

78
General Meeting 1st October 2009
  • Looking Back Looking Forward !
  • Phil Newcombe
  • General Manager, Bon Voyage Tour Travel

79
Visit USA Association WTM Presentation
  • Phil Newcombe
  • Bon Voyage Travel Tours

Phil Newcombe - Bon Voyage Travel Tours
80
Visit USA Association WTM PresentationBon Voyage
Presentation
  • About Bon Voyage
  • Looking Back at 2009
  • Looking Forward to 2010

Phil Newcombe - Bon Voyage Travel Tours
81
Visit USA Association WTM PresentationAbout Bon
Voyage
  • Independently owned Tour Operator Specialising in
    N. America
  • Established 30 Years.
  • Adapting from hunters to farmers

Phil Newcombe - Bon Voyage Travel Tours
82
Visit USA Association WTM PresentationAbout Bon
Voyage
Phil Newcombe - Bon Voyage Travel Tours
83
Visit USA Association WTM PresentationLooking
Back at 2009
Phil Newcombe - Bon Voyage Travel Tours
84
Visit USA Association WTM PresentationThe
Background
  • September Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac, Lehman
    Brothers
  • October The brink of Recession
  • November The Euro zone in Recession
  • December USA in Recession
  • January Britain in Recesssion
  • February UK Bankers say sorry

Phil Newcombe - Bon Voyage Travel Tours
85
Visit USA Association WTM PresentationLooking
Back at 2009
  • Consumer Confidence
  • Inertia
  • Exchange Rates
  • Stay-cation
  • Debt Repayment

Phil Newcombe - Bon Voyage Travel Tours
86
Visit USA Association WTM PresentationLooking
Back at 2009
Phil Newcombe - Bon Voyage Travel Tours
87
Visit USA Association WTM PresentationLooking
Back at 2009
Phil Newcombe - Bon Voyage Travel Tours
88
Visit USA Association WTM PresentationLooking
Back at 2009
Phil Newcombe - Bon Voyage Travel Tours
89
Visit USA Association WTM PresentationLooking
Forward to 2010
Phil Newcombe - Bon Voyage Travel Tours
90
Visit USA Association WTM PresentationLooking
Forward to 2010
  • Positive Factors
  • Challenges
  • Pent Up Demand
  • Currency
  • Fuel
  • Pricing
  • Disposable Income
  • The BBQ Summer
  • Employment
  • Tourism Promotion Act
  • Consumer Confidence
  • Interest Rates
  • Fuel
  • Events
  • Budget Reductions
  • Changing Face of Airlines
  • Taxation Income, VAT, APD
  • Tourism Promotion Act

Phil Newcombe - Bon Voyage Travel Tours
91
Visit USA Association WTM PresentationSummary
  • 2009 a Disappointing Season.
  • Positive Early Signs for 2010 19
  • Fragile Recovery BUT Potentially Vulnerable
  • Cautiously Optimistic

Phil Newcombe - Bon Voyage Travel Tours
92
WTM Briefing 9th November 2009
  • Many thanks for joining us today !
  • Best of luck for 2010!!
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