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Hydrologic Predictability and Water Year 2009 Predictions in the Columbia River Basin

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6 start dates: 1st day of Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr. Many applications: ... Forecast ... http://www.almanac.com/weather/index.php. Water Year 2009 Forecasts ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Hydrologic Predictability and Water Year 2009 Predictions in the Columbia River Basin


1
Hydrologic Predictability and Water Year 2009
Predictions in the Columbia River Basin
  • Andy Wood
  • Matt Wiley
  • Bart Nijssen
  • Climate and Water Resource Forecasts for the 2009
    Water Year
  • UW Climate Impacts Group
  • October 2, 2008, Vancouver, WA

2
Presentation Outline
1. Introduction 2. Current Conditions 3.
Predictability in the Columbia R. Basin 4.
Climate Predictions 5. Water Year 2009
Streamflow Outlook
3
The PNW hydrologic cycle
Average annual water cycle
  • soil moisture near annual low
  • runoff near low
  • nearly all water year precipitation yet to come
  • snow season not really underway
  • evaporation waning

PNW
Where we are now on average
4
Hydrologic Model-based Forecasting
a forecast has two key elements - initial
conditions - climate forecast
recently observed meteorological data
ensemble of met. data to generate forecast
Spin-up
Forecast
ICs
hydrologic state
obs
IC initial conditions
5
Initial Conditions Soil Moisture
6
Soil Moisture Projections
7
Soil Moisture Projections
8
Current Soil Moisture Conditions
9
Is it dry in the Columbia R. Basin?
Last years snowpack was good to great, but
was based on normal or below precipitation in
places
USDA/NRCS
10
Is it dry in the Columbia R. Basin?
Then, late summer was fairly dry
11
What do the streamflows say? ID
12
What do the streamflows say? BC
13
What do the streamflows say? BC
14
What do the streamflows say? BC
15
What do the streamflows say? BC
16
What do the streamflows say? BC
17
What do the streamflows say? BC
18
But how much do ICs matter in Fall?
  • 3TIER was recently funded by NOAA (SBIR) to run a
    massive set of ensemble hindcasts.
  • 56 years (1949-2005) of 56-member ESP forecasts
    for 72 locations in the PNW
  • archived streamflow, climate and water balance
    variables at a daily timestep
  • 1-year lead time forecasts
  • 6 start dates 1st day of Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb,
    Mar, Apr
  • Many applications
  • measure model-based prediction skill
  • calculate forecast corrections

19
For every combination of historical IC with met.
forecast what fraction of normal runoff was
produced?
20
Early in the water year, wet IC adds lt
10 dry IC removes lt 10 from April-July
flow forecast
Nov. 1 Forecast
21
As water year progresses, ICs become more
important precip forecasts less important
Dec. 1 Forecast
22
By January 1, knowing ICs is becoming as
important as knowing future climate, for Apr-July
flow prediction
Jan. 1 Forecast
23
In February April, the shift to the dominance
of ICs (snow and soil moisture) progresses.
Feb. 1 Forecast
24
In February April, the shift to the dominance
of ICs (snow and soil moisture) progresses.
Mar. 1 Forecast
25
On April 1, the difference between the wettest
driest Spring met for forecast Apr-Jul flow is
minor.
Apr. 1 Forecast
26
Given average precipitation in October, where
will The Dalles forecast be on Nov. 1 this year?
27
Climate Prediction
THIS YEAR
28
2008 La Nina versus Normal conditions Oct-Dec
precip
temperature
SWE
soil moist
runoff
oct
nov
dec
29
2008 La Nina versus Normal conditions Jan-Mar
precip
temperature
SWE
soil moist
runoff
jan
feb
mar
30
2008 La Nina versus Normal conditions Apr-Jun
precip
temperature
SWE
soil moist
runoff
apr
may
jun
31
Current ENSO Forecasts
.mostly point toward a neutral winter
http//iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/f
igure3.html
32
Yet a few are turning toward La Nina
http//www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/
33
US and Europe agree on something?
NCEP
A number of forecasts update within the next week
worth checking at http//iri.columbia.edu/clim
ate/ENSO/currentinfo/modelviews.html
ECMWF
34
Where NOAA fears to tread
http//www.almanac.com/weather/index.php
35
Water Year 2009 Forecasts
36
2009 Natural Runoff Volume Forecasts
Columbia River at Mica Dam percent of normal
(71-00) for period Jan-Jul Apr-Jul Apr-Sep
97 97 98
37
2009 Natural Runoff Volume Forecasts
Pend Oreille River at Albeni Falls Dam percent
of normal (71-00) for period Jan-Jul Apr-Ju
l Apr-Sep 99 99 99
38
2009 Natural Runoff Volume Forecasts
Columbia River at Grand Coulee Dam percent of
normal (71-00) for period Jan-Jul Apr-Jul A
pr-Sep 97 97 97
39
2009 Natural Runoff Volume Forecasts
Snake River below Lower Granite Dam percent of
normal (71-00) for period Jan-Jul Apr-Jul A
pr-Sep 89 89 90
40
2009 Natural Runoff Volume Forecasts
Columbia River at The Dalles, OR percent of
normal (71-00) for period Jan-Jul Apr-Jul A
pr-Sep 95 95 95
41
2009 Natural Runoff Volume Forecasts
Summary
percent of normal (71-00) for
period Name Jan-Jul Apr-Jul Apr-Sep Columbia
River at The Dalles, OR 95 95
95 Columbia River at Grand Coulee Dam 97
97 97 Snake River below Lower
Granite Dam 89 89 90 Pend
Oreille River at Albeni Falls Dam 99
99 99 Columbia River at Mica Dam
97 97 98
42
thank you!
questions? awood _at_ 3tiergroup.com
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