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MET 112 Global Climate Change: Lecture 16

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Title: MET 112 Global Climate Change: Lecture 16


1
MET 112 Global Climate Change Lecture 16
  • Climate Change Impacts Present and Future
  • Dr. Eugene Cordero
  • Outline
  • Fingerprints of climate change
  • Future impacts

2
Projected levels of atmospheric CO2 during the
next 100 years would be higher than at anytime in
the last 440,000 yrs
Projected (2100)
CO2 Concentration (ppmv)
Current (2001)
(BP 1950)
3
Climate Change Is It Already Happening?
  • Evidence of climate change is often difficult
    to pin down.
  • Our understanding of interactions is sometime
    poor.

4
Climate Change Is It Already Happening?
  • Evidence of climate change is often difficult
    to pin down.
  • Natural climate is always changing.
  • Our understanding of climate system is sometime
    poor.
  • Lack of good long term observations all over the
    world

Thus we look for fingerprints of climate
change as a result of a warmer climate.
5
Fingerprints and harbingers of climate change
  • FINGERPRINTS Direct manifestations of a
    widespread and long-term trend toward warmer
    global temperatures
  • Ocean warming, sea-level rise and coastal
    flooding
  • Arctic and Antarctic warming

6
Fingerprints and harbingers of climate change
  • FINGERPRINTS Direct manifestations of a
    widespread and long-term trend toward warmer
    global temperatures
  • Heat waves and periods of unusually warm weather
  • Ocean warming, sea-level rise and coastal
    flooding
  • Glaciers melting
  • Arctic and Antarctic warming
  • Increases in sea level

7
Fingerprints and harbingers of climate change
  • HARBINGERS Events that foreshadow the types of
    impacts likely to become more frequent and
    widespread with continued warming.
  • Earlier spring arrival
  • Coral reef bleaching
  • Droughts and fires

8
Fingerprints and harbingers of climate change
  • HARBINGERS Events that foreshadow the types of
    impacts likely to become more frequent and
    widespread with continued warming.
  • Spreading disease (i.e. mosquito carrying)
  • Earlier spring arrival
  • Plant and animal range shifts and population
    changes
  • Coral reef bleaching
  • Downpours, heavy snowfalls, and flooding
  • Droughts and fires

9
Indicators of Climate Change
Fingerprints of climate change
10
Indicators of Climate Change
Fingerprints of climate change
Stratosphere cooling
Troposphere warming
Ocean warming
11
Temperature trends
  • Troposphere (0 - 10km)
  • Stratosphere (10 50 km)
  • Early satellite data showed some cooling, but now
    that seemed to be instrument error.
  • Why cooling? More energy trapped in troposphere.

12
Temperature trends
  • Troposphere (0 - 10km)
  • Stratosphere (10 50 km)
  • Surface temperatures are warming (Certain)
  • Middle troposphere is also warming (Very likely)
  • Early satellite data showed some cooling, but now
    that seemed to be instrument error.
  • Upper atmosphere is cooling (Certain)
  • Why cooling? More energy trapped in troposphere.

13
Fingerprints of climate change
14
Fingerprints of climate change
Increases in water vapor
15
Water vapor feedback
  • Recall how the water vapor feedback works
  • Current models suggest that the water vapor
    feedback is responsible for about the same amount
    of warming as warming from increases in CO2.
  • The importance of this feedback is still being
    investigated.

16
Water vapor feedback
  • Recall how the water vapor feedback works
  • Increase in temp
  • Increase evaporation
  • Increase in water vapor in atmosphere
  • Water vapor is a greenhouse gas
  • Increase in greenhouse effect
  • Further warming (positive feedback)
  • Current models suggest that the water vapor
    feedback is responsible for about the same amount
    of warming as warming from increases in CO2.
  • The importance of this feedback is still being
    investigated.

17
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18
Global mean surface temperatures have increased
19

20
The Land and Oceans have warmed
21

22
Precipitation patterns have changed
23

The El-Nino phenomena leads to floods and
droughts throughout the tropics and subtropics
24
The frequency, persistence and magnitude of
El-Nino events have increased in the last 20 years
The El-Nino phenomena leads to floods and
droughts throughout the tropics and subtropics
25
Extreme Weather Events are Projected to Increase
Projected changes during the 21st century
Examples of impacts
  • Higher minimum temperatures fewer cold days
    frost days and cold spells over nearly all land
    areas (very likely)
  • increased summer drying over most mid-latitude
    continental interiors and associated risk of
    drought (likely)
  • Increased mortality in old people in urban areas
  • Heat stress on livestock
  • Extended range of pests and diseases
  • Reduced rangeland productivity, increased
    wildfires, decreased hydropower
  • Damage to various ecological and socioeconomic
    systems

26
Extreme Weather Events are Projected to Increase
Projected changes during the 21st century
Examples of impacts
  • Higher maximum temperatures more hot days and
    heatwaves over nearly all land areas (very
    likely)
  • Higher minimum temperatures fewer cold days
    frost days and cold spells over nearly all land
    areas (very likely)
  • more intense precipitation events over many areas
    (very likely)
  • increased summer drying over most mid-latitude
    continental interiors and associated risk of
    drought (likely)
  • increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensity,
    mean and peak precipitation intensities (likely)
  • Increased mortality in old people in urban areas
  • Damage to crops
  • Heat stress on livestock
  • Extended range of pests and diseases
  • Loss of some crop/fruit
  • Land slides, mudslides, damage to property and
    increased insurance costs
  • Reduced rangeland productivity, increased
    wildfires, decreased hydropower
  • Damage to various ecological and socioeconomic
    systems

27
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28
Weather-related economic damages have increased
29

Svalbard, Norway (79N)
30
Arctic
31
Fingerprints and Harbingers
32
http//www.climatehotmap.org/
33
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34
More adverse than beneficial impacts on
biological and socioeconomic systems are projected
35
Increased water availability in some water-scarce
regions, and decreased water availability in many
water scarce regions
36

2020s 2050s 2080s
37
Increased agricultural productivity in some
mid-latitude regions reduction in the tropics
and sub-tropics
2020s 2050s 2080s
38
Branching coral
Brain coral
39
Increase in coral bleaching events due to warmer
ocean temperatures
Branching coral
Brain coral
40
Sea Level rise
  • Increased risk of floods, potentially displacing
    tens of millions of people due to
  • Bangladesh is projected to lose about 17 of its
    land area with a sea level rise of one meter

41
Sea Level rise
  • Increased risk of floods, potentially displacing
    tens of millions of people due to
  • sea level rise and heavy rainfall events
  • Bangladesh is projected to lose about 17 of its
    land area with a sea level rise of one meter
  • very difficult to adapt due to lack of adaptive
    capacity

42

43
Sea Levels have risen
44
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45
Effect on human health
  • Reduced winter mortality in
  • Increased incidence of heat stress mortality
  • Increased incidence diseases in the tropics and
    sub-tropics
  • such as malaria and

46
Effect on human health
  • Reduced winter mortality in
  • mid- and high-latitudes
  • Increased incidence of heat stress mortality
  • Tropics and midlatitudes
  • Increased incidence diseases in the tropics and
    sub-tropics
  • such as malaria and
  • water-borne diseases such as cholera,

47
Developing countries are the most vulnerable to
climate change
  • Impacts are worse
  • large share of the economy is in climate
    sensitive sectors
  • Lower capacity to adapt
  • Climate change is likely to impact
    disproportionately upon the poorest countries and
    the poorest persons within countries,

48
Developing countries are the most vulnerable to
climate change
  • Impacts are worse
  • already more flood and drought prone
  • large share of the economy is in climate
    sensitive sectors
  • Lower capacity to adapt
  • because of a lack of financial and technological
    capacity
  • Climate change is likely to impact
    disproportionately upon the poorest countries and
    the poorest persons within countries,
  • Net market sector effects are expected to be
    negative in most developing countries

49
Climate change and California
  • Average Temperature
  • Winter
  • Summer
  • Temperature extremes
  • Coastal cities
  • Human health
  • Water resources
  • Agriculture

50
  • Report Issued in 2004
  • Sections include
  • Climate projections
  • Rising sea levels
  • Extreme heat
  • Health impacts
  • Water resource
  • Agriculture and vegetation

51
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