Science Panel Calls Global Warming

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Science Panel Calls Global Warming Unequivocal
nyt
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Climate Change Data

• The new report says the global climate is likely
  to warm 3.5 to 8 degrees Fahrenheit if carbon
  dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere reach
  twice the levels of 1750, before the Industrial
  Revolution
• Should greenhouse gases continue to accumulate in
  the atmosphere at even a moderate pace, average
  temperatures by the end of the century could
  match those last seen 125,000 years ago, in the
  previous warm spell between ice ages, the report
  said.

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Impacts on Poor Nations
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Precautionary Principle
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EC Commission communiqué on the Precautionary
Principle Proportionality "Measures...must not
be disproportionate to the desired level of
protection and must not aim at zero risk"
Nondiscrimination "Comparable situations should
not be treated differently and... different
situations should not be treated in the same way,
unless there are objective grounds for doing so."
Consistency "Measures...should be comparable
in nature and scope with measures already taken
in equivalent areas in which all the scientific
data are available." Examination of the
benefits and costs of action or lack of action
"This examination should include an economic
cost/benefit analysis when this is appropriate
and feasible. However, other analysis
methods...may also be relevant" Examination
of scientific developments "The measures must be
of a provisional nature pending the availability
of more reliable scientific data"... "Scientific
research shall be continued with a view to
obtaining more complete data."
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US Role

• The United States, with about 5 percent of the
  worlds population, contributes about a quarter
  of greenhouse gas emissions, more than any other
  country.
• Americans consume 2x pc Energy than Japan and
  Germany
• There is "a significant shift in public attitudes
  toward the environment and global warming with
  fully 83 percent of Americans now saying global
  warming is a 'serious' problem, up from 70
  percent in 2004," reports the Yale Center for
  Environmental Law and Policy.

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U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions 1990 - 2004
 
 


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Climate and SecurityTwo Facets of Energy
Next several slides from

• Prof. Bill Moomaw
• Tufts University
• Presentation at Colby College
• March 12, 2007

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Implications

• Lower emission scenario, 3.5-6.5o F rise, moves
  Waterville. ME climatically to Newark, NJ
• Higher emission scenario, 6.5-12.5o F rise, moves
  Waterville climatically to Raleigh, NC
• A doubling of carbon dioxide will bring us to the
  lower of these two scenarios, and yet will
  dramatically change our environment, energy
  demand, disease patterns and lifestyles.

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What are implications for forests?

• Existing trees in our Maple-beech-birch forests
  will cease to reproduce, and will eventually die
  out
• Over a century or more , they will be replaced by
  the oak-hickory forest of the mid-Atlantic states
• Invasives such as kudzu will establish themselves
• Weakened trees will be susceptible to insects and
  disease

Moomaw
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CO2 by Region
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Top 20 CO2 Producers
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What is Needed to reduce by 75?

• Sustained reductions of 3/year by industrial
  nations for the rest of the century
• This will reduce emissions by half in 23 years
  and to one-quarter in 46 years
• This will assure that CO2 concentrations are
  below 1990 levels and dropping at the end of the
  century rather than continuing to rise
• Otherwise, there is a high probability that
  global average temperature will rise by more than
  4o F during this century and might go as high as
  12o F

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What is a 3 Annual Reduction for Transportation?

• Driving 30 miles less per month for one year, or
  by adjusting driving style to improve by 3.
• Keep this up until you can afford a more
  efficient vehicle
• A vehicle that is 30 more efficient will be
  equivalent to reducing your emissions by 3 per
  year over the life of the vehicle
• Replacing a fleet average vehicle with a hybrid
  Prius or Honda is equivalent to a 3 per year
  reduction over the lifetime of your next two
  vehicles.

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Some observations about vehicles

• US fuel economy has slipped for the past 10 years
• Starting in 2007, Chinas standards will exceed
  US standards and will rise in the coming decade.
• Toyota has the most efficient vehicles in most
  size classes
• Toyota has passed Ford globally and in the US
  (for 2 months) as the second largest seller of
  vehicles

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What is a 3 Reduction for Electric Power?

• 3 is replacing one 60 watt light bulb with a CFL
  each month for one year on your electricity
  emissions
• Replace and remove 1.5 of existing coal plants
  each year with zero emission technology and this
  reduces power plant emissions by 3 per year
• Note this is the anticipated retirement rate of
  50 year od plants in the US
• It is possible, by purchasing 100 of zero
  emission electricity from your utility, to reduce
  these emissions to zero, and create a market for
  renewable and other low emission technologies

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What is 3 Reduction in Buildings?

• Night time set back of a thermostat by 10 degrees
  achieves a 3 reduction in emissions
• For appliances, 3 is eliminating a dorm fridge
  or replacing a pre-1993 regular fridge with a new
  Energy Star model over its lifetime
• Improving the insulation and tightness of an
  existing building to reduce energy use by 30 is
  equivalent to 3 per year for a dozen years

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Replacement strategy

• Replace every emitting technology at the end of
  its life with a more efficient, lower emitting
  one
• For lights and electronics, this is 1-3 years
• For appliances and vehicles, this is about every
  12-15 years
• For power stations and industrial facilities,
  this is about every 40-50 years
• For buildings, there are major renovations every
  20 years and replacement every 75-100 years.

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Policies to Achieve Strategy

• None
• Regulation
• Government Investment
• MBI
• Cap and trade bubble

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Professor Tietenbergs Early Research

• Tietenberg, T. H. (1985). Emissions Trading An
  Exercise in Reforming Pollution Policy.
  Washington, DC, Resources for the Future.
• Tietenberg, T. H. (1986). Uncommon Sense The
  Program to Reform Pollution Control Policy.
  Regulatory Reform What Actually Happened. L. W.
  Weiss and M. W. Klass. Boston, Little Brown and
  Company 269-303.
• Tietenberg, T. H. (1989). Marketable Permits in
  the U.S. A Decade of Experience. Public Finance
  and the Performance of Enterprises. K. W.
  Roskamp. Detroit, MI, Wayne State University
  Press 261-277.
• Tietenberg, T. H. (1990). "Economic Instruments
  for Environmental Regulation." Oxford Review of
  Economic Policy 6(1) 17-33.
• Tietenberg, T. H. (1992). Relevant Experience
  with Tradable Permits. Combating Global Warming
  Study on a Global System of Tradable Carbon
  Emission Entitlements. U. N. C. o. T. a.
  Development. New York, United Nations 37-54.
• Tietenberg, T. H. (1998). "Ethical Influences on
  the Evolution of the US Tradable Permit Approach
  to Pollution Control." Ecological Economics
  24(2-3) 241-257.

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Attention Shoppers Carbon Offsets in Aisle 6
Angela Jimenez for The New York Times CASH AND
CARRY At Ikea, its 99-cent blue reusable bags
will soon be 59 cents. But the free plastic bags
they pack your goods in will be a nickel the
money will go to planting trees.