RT3,%20Formulation%20of%20very%20high%20resolution%20Regional%20Climate%20Model%20Ensembles%20for%20Europe - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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RT3,%20Formulation%20of%20very%20high%20resolution%20Regional%20Climate%20Model%20Ensembles%20for%20Europe

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DMI, SMHI, KNMI, ICTP, METO-HC, CNRM, GKSS, MPIMET, UCLM, INM, met.no, CUNI, CHMI ... State-of-the-art RCM simulations at ~50km. Simulations with evaluated ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: RT3,%20Formulation%20of%20very%20high%20resolution%20Regional%20Climate%20Model%20Ensembles%20for%20Europe


1
RT3, Formulation of very high resolution Regional
Climate Model Ensembles for Europe
  • J.H. Christensen (DMI)
  • M. Rummukainen (SMHI)
  • B. van den Hurk (KNMI)
  • DMI, SMHI, KNMI, ICTP, METO-HC, CNRM, GKSS,
    MPIMET, UCLM, INM, met.no, CUNI, CHMI

2
Overall aim of RT3
  • RT3 has the responsibility for providing improved
    climate model tools developed in the context of
    regional models, but contributing to
    high-resolution modelling in general, first at
    spatial scales of 50 km at a European-wide scale
    within ENSEMBLES and later also at a resolution
    of 20km for specified sub-regions.

3
RT3 links to other RTs
  • (Output specify need of GCM-data, to RT1/RT2A)
  • Input GCM data, from RT1/RT2A
  • Input Additional evaluation data, from RT5
  • Output An RCM-ensemble system, to RT2B
  • Input RCM runs of GCM-controls, from RT2B
  • (Input impact study requirements, from RT6)
  • Output RCM climate change scenarios for a
    non-European region

4
RT3 models and simulations
  • DMI (HIRHAM), SMHI (RCA), KNMI (RACMO), ICTP
    (RegCM), METO-HC (HadRM), CNRM
    (ALADIN), GKSS (CLM), MPIMET (REMO), UCM
    (PROMES), INM (RCA or UM), met.no
    (HIRHAM), CUNI CHMI (ALADIN)
  • Regionalisation of ERA-40 at 50 km (WP3.1)
  • Regionalisation of ERA-40 at 20 km (WP3.1)
  • (GCM-driven RCM simulations done in RT2B)
  • Simulations for a non-European region (WP3.5)

5
RT3, Workpackages
  • WP3.1 Creation of an RCM ensemble for ERA-40
  • WP3.2 Design and calibration of procedure to
    create probabilistic regional climate scenarios
  • WP3.3 Design of ensemble strategy
  • WP3.4 A comparative analysis of RCM ensemble
    simulations of present-day using GCM boundary
    conditions
  • WP3.5 RCM-ensemble simulation for non-European
    areas

6
RT3/WP3.1 Creation of an RCM ensemble for ERA-40
  • State-of-the-art RCM simulations at 50km.
  • Simulations with evaluated/improved RCMs at 20
    km.
  • With some models, assess the role of land use and
    irrigation changes with experiments with and
    without such prescribed changes. (A possible link
    with RT7?)
  • Link the evaluation of the simulations with RT5
    activities, which will provide new
    high-resolution data-sets.

7
RT3/WP3.2 Design and calibration of procedure to
create probabilistic regional climate scenarios
  • Techniques for generation of probabilistic
    regional scale predictions. (A regional
    counterpart to RT1 WP1.6.)
  • Arrive at a basis for the weighting of individual
    ensemble members, to be further refined in WP3.4.
  • Calculation of model weights will be introduced
    for the ensemble of models to be used in
    prediction mode, i.e. for use in RT2B.

8
RT3/WP3.3 Design of ensemble strategy
  • Design the strategy including selection of
    members based on (GCM) boundary conditions, and
    model formulation.
  • Assign a desired number of RCM-GCM combinations
    to provide an "optimal" probabilistic future
    climate scenario, in collaboration with RT2a.

9
RT3/WP3.4 A comparative analysis of RCM ensemble
simulations of present-day using GCM boundary
conditions
  • Weighting procedure (WP3.2) based on ERA-40
    driven RCMs applied to GCM-control driven RCMs
  • Modifications to the procedure to account for
    GCM-biases developed to allow weighting for RCM
    downscaling GCM predictions
  • Evaluation of the modified procedure
  • Co-ordinating with RT2B, a strategy and size for
    the 20km RCM ensemble will be recommended

10
RT3/WP3.5 RCM-ensemble simulation for
non-European areas
  • Objectives
  • Test RCMs for non-European regions, esp. tropics
  • Study the effects of anthropogenic forcings (e.g.
    land use change, atmospheric aerosols) in
    tropical regions
  • RCM climate change scenarios for a non-European
    region
  • Possible regions Sahel, equatorial Africa (West
    Africa, cf. AMMA), Amazon Basin, South Asia
    monsoon region
  • Research steps
  • Perfect boundary condition experiments
  • Sensitivity experiments (land-use change,
    aerosols)
  • Scenario simulations
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