LCCMR Minnesota Statewide Conservation and Preservation Plan

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LCCMRMinnesota Statewide Conservation and
Preservation Plan
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Biofuel energy Products

• Identify biofuel and energy trends and impacts,
  including potential trends in energy and fuel
  conservation
• Map priority natural resource areas affected by
  these trends
• Identify energy-related investment and policy
  choices that impact natural resources

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Energy production and use Progress

• Examine 3 overarching energy environmental
  policy scenarios relevant to future sustainable
  energy systems
• 1. Continuation of current energy environmental
  policy incentives
• 2. Shift to policies/practices that promote
  significant conservation of energy and
  alternative energy sources
• 3. Scenario 2 policies/practices that promote
  significant environmental benefits from land use
  practices
• For each scenario identify trends, evaluate
  biofuel options and impacts, recommend strategies

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Agricultural Land-use Options

• 3 major options for Ag. Landscapes
• Corn-soybean rotation
• Probably more corn, collection of corn biomass
• Monocultures of perennial energy crops
• Switchgrass, miscanthus, hybrid poplar, others
• Polycultures of perennial energy crops
• Grass-legume mixtures, native prairie plantings
• For each overarching scenario
• We will determine expected pattern of options
  across ag. landscapes
• We will determine expected environmental impacts
  and benefits/costs of each pattern
• Ex. Environmental scenario likely means more
  perennials

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Motor vehicle fuel demand
Electricity demand
Fuel Mix
fossil fuels wind biomass
blending production mandates
producer subsidies
Landscape (spatial variables)
commodity prices
climate change
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Energy Policy Act of 2007

• Signed into law December 19, 2007
• Mandates 36 billion gallons of ethanol by 2022
  with 21 billion gallons coming from cellulosic
  feedstocks. (2005 Energy Policy Act established
  target for 2012 at 7.5 billion gallons).
• The 36 billion gallons is expected to account
  for 22 of the countrys vehicle fuel mix in
  2022.

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Trend Growing Demand for Cellulose Biofuel -
from where?
25 x 25
October 2007 Capacity(6.9 billion gal)
Gap for Cellulosic ethanol to fill
30 x 30
20 in 10
Energy Policy Act
Ethanol from corn (NCGA)
RFA, http//www.ethanolrfa.org/industry/statistic
s/C NCGA, http//www.ncga.com/ethanol/pdfs/2007
/HowMuchEthanolCanComeFromCorn0207.pdf
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Expiration of CRP Contracts
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Minnesota Utility Policies

• 30 renewable electricity by 2020 for Xcel Energy
• 25 renewable electricity by 2025 for all other
  electric power utilities
• 1.5 load reductions (from projected loads) in
  natural gas and electrical power every year
• CO2 reduction goals?
• 15 by 2015, 30 by 2030, 80 by 2050

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Minnesota Biomass Resources (NREL, 2005 after
Bowyer)
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Minnesota Forest Biomass Resources (Berguson,
2007 after Bowyer)
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Largest bio-feedstock by county in Minnesota
Source CEE BIOPET
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Biofuel resources in Minnesota by county,
trillion BTUs
Source CEE BIOPET
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Land cover, 2006
USDA
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Relevant Trends for Energy Conservation
Alternative Energy Scenario

• Trends to be considered include
• Better mileage standards
• Electric plug-in cars
• More mass transit
• Increased wind and solar energy
• Smart meters and distributed generation
• Deep injection of carbon
• Decreased carbon footprints/MCAG CO2 reduction
  goals/terrestrial C sequestration
• Gasifiers/pelletization
• Algae
• Nuclear power
• Geothermal energy for homeowners/cooling plants
• Hydropower from river currents/Lake Superior

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Actual and projected demand for renewable
electricity in Minnesota under RES, 1990-2030
Source renewable electricity values from MPCA
database future projections by LSO
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Actual and projected demand for transportation
biofuels in Minnesota under various scenarios,
1990-2030
Source past ethanol consumption from MNDA
future projections by LSO
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2.4 billion gallons of water needed in
2006 Proposed plants need another 1.8 billion
gallons
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Groundwater recharge in in/yr
(fr. USGS)
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Precipitation 30-year normals (in/yr), 1970-2000
MN Climatology
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Scenarios

• Expansion of row crop acreage
• Where?
• How much?
• Removal of stover?
• BMPs
• Expansion of perennial monocultures/polycultures
  (What types?, Where?, How much?)
• In existing row crop acreage
• In forested lands
• In transition areas between these two
• What incentives and/or policies are associated
  with each of these scenarios?