Diapositiva 1

1
Building capacity to assess the impact of
climate change/variability and develop adaptive
responses for the mixed crop/livestock
production systems in the Argentinean ,
Brazilian and Uruguayan Pampas

• Principal Scientists 
• Graciela Magrin, INTA, Argentina
• María I. Travasso, INTA, Argentina
• Osvaldo Canziani, Argentina
• Gilberto Cunha, Brazil
• Mauricio Fernandes, Brazil
• Agustin Gimenez, GRAS- INIA, Uruguay
• Walter E. Baethgen, IFDC, Uruguay
• Holger Meinke, APSRU, DPI, Australia

2
Project Premise
One of the most effective manners for assisting
agricultural stakeholders to be prepared and
adapt to possible climate change scenarios, is by
helping them to better cope with current climate
variability
3
CLIMATE VARIABILITY in the Pampas Region
ENSO and other sources
4
CLIMATE and VARIABILITY
Example Climatology in La Estanzuela, Uruguay
Mean Rainfall in EELE (1915-2000)
MONTH
5
CLIMATE and VARIABILITY
Example Observed Monthly Rainfall
Monthly Rainfall in EELE
MONTH
6
CLIMATE and VARIABILITY
Example Monthly rainfall in 12 years (La
Estanzuela)
Monthly Rainfall in EELE
MEAN
None of the years shows monthly rainfall similar
to the long-term values Still, planning is based
on long-term values (Probability ? 0)
MONTH
7
Currently planning for conditions that will
not exist (Probability 0) Can we
plan for conditions with Probability gt 0 ?
Improve Planning and Decision Making
RESEARCH PROJECTS INIA INTA - IFDC
8
Chance of having precipitations higher (blue) or
lower (red) than normal during "El Niño" and La
Niña years.
"El Niño"
2.80
2.60
2.40
2.20
2.00
1.80
1.60
1.40
0.00
2.80
2.60
2.40
2.20
2.00
1.80
1.60
1.40
0.00
La Niña
9
Differences in three-monthly Precipitation (mm)
and Maximum Temperature (ºC) During EL NIÑO
and LA NIÑA years.
10
Probability of having high yields (blue) or low
yields (red) during El Niño and La Niña years.
11
OND 1997 SST
12
OND 1999 SST
13
OND 1998 SST
14
ENSO-related Forecasts are Poor in January and
February
Pantanal 150,000 km2 of Wetlands
15
Sources of Interannual Climate Variability other
than ENSO
Correlation Between Rainfall in November in the
Pantanal And Rainfall in Jan-Feb in SE South
America r 0.6 0.8
16
South Atlantic SST impacts on summer
precipitation and crops yield
SST-SA (May) and Precipitation (January
February)
Soybean Yield
17
Gross Margins for Rainfed Maize
(1960 2001)
CERES Model
CV 128 9 years in 30 result (? 0) 60 of
Total Income in 6 years
18
Gross Margins for Rainfed vs Irrigated Maize
(1960 2001)
CERES Model