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SPACE WEATHER FOR THE DOD WARFIGHTER: CURRENT OPS AND PLANNED IMPROVEMENTS

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Develop and maintain the space environmental 4-D (specification and prediction) ... In-House (traditional) Sole-Source (e.g., AFRL) Community Approach ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: SPACE WEATHER FOR THE DOD WARFIGHTER: CURRENT OPS AND PLANNED IMPROVEMENTS


1
SPACE WEATHER FOR THE DOD WARFIGHTER CURRENT OPS
AND PLANNED IMPROVEMENTS
Col John M. Lanicci, Ph.D. AFWA/CC
2
Overview
  • Roles and Responsibilities
  • The Space Weather Operations Center (WOC)
  • Customers and impacts
  • Current Capabilities
  • Shortfalls
  • Technology Transition and Near Term Projects
  • AFWA Tech Transition Process
  • GAIM Implementation at AFWA
  • Other near term projects
  • Way Ahead

3
Roles and Responsibilities
  • Space Characterization Mission
  • Plan and program for acquisition of ground-based
    sensing solutions to fulfill DoD space
    environmental monitoring requirements
  • Plan and program for acquisition of space-based
    sensing solutions to fulfill DoD space
    environmental monitoring requirements
  • Develop and maintain the space environmental 4-D
    (specification and prediction) data cube to
    include modeling

4
Roles and Responsibilities
DoD Operational Mission Through the Space WOC,
provide 24/7 mission-tailored analyses,
forecasts, and warnings of system-impacting space
weather to DoD and National agency operators,
warfighters, and decision-makers. Strategic
Backup Mission Civilian counterpart Space
Environment Center (Boulder, CO) and AFWA are
striving for federally-mandated mutual backup
capability.
5
Customers and Impacts
6
Customers and Impacts
  • Space Weather Mission Impacts
  • HF Communication Centers Routinely report
    dayside impacts during flares
  • UHF Impact Deployed personnel struggled to
    provided a regular brief via SATCOM at 2100L
    Infusion of scintillation forecast support
    convinced them to move brief time earlier with
    success.
  • HF Impact Thule Greenland radio maintenance
    personnel observed unexplained several day
    outages Infusion of space weather support
    revealed Polar Cap Absorption events (not broken
    radios) as the cause

7
Current Capabilities - Observations
  • Specification starts with collecting remote and
    in-situ data
  • Ground Based Includes solar (optical radio),
    ionosondes, magnetometers, GPS, SCINDA, and
    neutron monitors
  • Space Based Includes DMSP, LANL, GOES, POES,
    ACE, SOHO
  • Data from many government and non-government
    sources
  • Data partnerships crucial

8
Current Capabilities - Modeling
  • Ionosphere
  • Large Scale Parameterized Real-Time Ionospheric
    Specification Model (PRISM)
  • Specification only
  • Climatology adjusted from limited real-time data
    and conditioned by a global index
  • Scintillation Wide Band MODel (WBMOD)
  • Climatology conditioned by location, time and a
    global disturbance index
  • Auroral Hardy Oval
  • Specification only

9
Current Capabilities - Modeling
  • Magnetosphere
  • Magnetospheric Specification and Forecast Model
    (MSFM)
  • Developed by Rice University
  • 3 hr Prediction of inner magnetosphere
  • Relativistic Electrons _at_ Geostationary
  • APL Developed
  • 27 day prediction
  • Solar Wind Hakamada Akasofu Fry (HAF) Kinematic
    Solar Wind Model
  • Univ. Alaska - Fairbanks
  • 96 hr forecast

10
Shortfalls
  • While the Space WOC has considerable capability,
    the 4-D data cube has not been fully realized
  • AFWA lacks predictive models for several domains
  • Much modeling capability is based on conditional
    climatology driven by global indices Need to
    move to physics based modeling as technology
    allows
  • Many domains are severely under sampled
  • Some shortfalls driven by a lack of basic
    research understanding
  • AFWA utilizes an aggressive Tech Transition
    process to combat these shortfalls
  • Partnerships are again crucial

11
Technology Leveraging Methods
Warfighter-Required Technology AFRL, NRL, SEC,
NCAR, NASA, UPOS, Universities
  • In-House (traditional)
  • Sole-Source (e.g., AFRL)
  • Community Approach (developed together)
  • Community Approach (survey choose needed
    technology)

AFWA/DNX
SMC/ESC
SEMS Contractor
AFWA/SCS
AFWA Operational Baseline
12
Technology Leveraging Methods
Warfighter-Required Technology AFRL, NRL, SEC,
NCAR, NASA, UPOS, Universities
  • In-House (traditional)
  • Sole-Source (e.g., AFRL)
  • Community Approach (developed together)
  • Community Approach (survey choose needed
    technology)

AFWA/DNX
SMC/ESC
SEMS Contractor
AFWA/SCS
AFWA Operational Baseline
13
GAIM Implementation
  • Global Assimilation of Ionospheric Measurements
    (GAIM) Model IOC Sep 06
  • Initial release Gauss-Maukov
  • Uses a Kalman Filter to assimilate
  • Provides 24 hour forecast
  • Follow-on full physics upgrade planned for FY08
  • Developed at Utah State with ONR funding. NRL
    manages the program. Transitioned by contractor.
    Visualization being done in house

Global
Local
14
Additional Projects
  • Data Initiatives
  • Create in-house Dst
  • SSUSI/SSULI Integration
  • TIMED, COSMIC, STEREO
  • South Atlantic Anomaly Specification
  • Model Initiatives
  • APL Radiation Belt and Auroral Models
  • NADIA upgrade for MSFM
  • Dst Prediction
  • Develop real-time metric program

15
Way Ahead
  • Integration of GAIM into operations will dominate
    the remainder of the fiscal year
  • Data issues (e.g. Dst, SSUSI/SSULI) will follow a
    close second
  • Continue with additions of targeted capabilities
    (e.g. Radiation Belt Model) to further enhance
    operations
  • Document operational capabilities through metrics
    to validate models and prioritize targeted
    improvements
  • Partnerships (as seen with GAIM) will continue to
    be crucial to the enhancement of operation support
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