Chinas Love Affair with the Automobile Lessons from Los Angeles Michael Woo

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Chinas Love Affair with the Automobile
Lessons from Los Angeles Michael Woo
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The romantic appeal of a beautiful environment --
combined with urban amenities
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Getting away from the city. . . .
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. . . . means that the countryside becomes the
city.
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Reality
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Parking lot heaven (or hell?)
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What is the outlook for mobility in Chinese
cities?
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Rapid motorization spurred by Chinese social
trends, govt policy
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The auto industry -- a pillar of economic growth
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Burgeoning car ownership in China

• 24 out of every 1000 Chinese owns a car today
  (compared to 300 cars/1000 in Europe, 765/1000 in
  U.S.)
• Passenger car sales in China rose by more than
  one million vehicles (or 35) in 2006
• 11,000 new cars hit the road
• everyday in China
• On track to surpass U.S. as
• worlds 1 auto market by 2010

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Why does Chinas growing dependence on
automobiles matter?
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China has 21 of the worlds population, but only
2 of the worlds oil

• Self-sufficient for oil until 1993
• Chinas oil imports grew from 0 to 100 million
  tons in only 10 years
• China now the worlds 2nd largest consumer of oil
  and 3rd largest oil importer, accounting for 60
  of incremental global oil trade
• One-third of Chinas oil demand caused by cars
  (up from 10 ten years ago)

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Uncontrolled car ownership threatens urban
quality of life
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Most vehicles in Chinas current car fleet are
small but inefficient (Source China Automobile
Technology and Research Center)
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Serious health impacts

• Seven of the 10 most polluted cities in the world
  are in China
• Breathing the air in Chinas most polluted cities
  equivalent to smoking two packs of cigarettes
  daily (Chinese government)
• Six hundred people die everyday in auto accidents
  in China (the leading cause of death for 15 45
  age group), compared to 117 in U.S.

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China expected to surpass U.S. as worlds top
emitter of greenhouse gases this year

• Chinas crop output could fall 5 - 10 by 2030 if
  temperatures rise
• Flooding in Yellow, Yangtze, and Pearl River
  deltas anticipated due to rising sea levels

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Asian air pollution affecting (U.S,) weatherThe
Pacific region has become stormier, scientists
say.

• Asia's growing air pollution -- billowing plumes
  of soot, smog and wood smoke -- is making the
  Pacific region cloudier and stormier, disrupting
  winter weather patterns along the West Coast and
  into the Arctic, researchers reported Monday.
• Carried on prevailing winds, the industrial
  outpouring of dust, sulfur, carbon grit and trace
  metals from booming Asian economies is having an
  intercontinental cloud-seeding effect, the
  researchers reported in the Proceedings of the
  National Academy of Sciences.
• The study is the first large-scale analysis to
  draw a link between Asian air pollution and the
  changing Pacific weather patterns.

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Looking at Beijing Cars, Traffic, and the
Quality of Urban Life
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Beijing Population Growth in 1990s

• Urban core population grew from 2.6 million to
  2.9 (marginal growth)
• Suburban population grew by 38
• Exurban population grew by 78

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Declining transit use in Beijing

• 70 of Beijing population used public transit in
  1970s
• Only 24 of Beijing population used public
  transit in 2000s

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Beijing rush hour now officially 11 hours long

• 20 annual growth in number of vehicles in
  Beijing
• Beijings road network grows by only 3 4
  annually
• Average driving speed on 11 main roads in Beijing
  estimated at only 12 km/hr. (roughly same as
  riding bicycle)

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Bicycle and pedestrian deaths in Beijing
Bicyclists and pedestrians comprised 27.7 of
auto accident-related deaths in Beijing in 2002.
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Alternative approaches to Chinas urban traffic
problems

• Predominant tendency to emphasize supply-based,
  capacity-building strategies
• Political incentives for local leadership to
  emphasize construction projects
• The missing link demand-based strategies.

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Preparations for the 2008 Beijing Olympics

• 180 billion yuan (21.7 billion U.S.) to be spent
  on rail and BRT improvements before 2008.
• Testing a plan to ban 1 million cars during the
  two weeks of the Olympics.
• Nissan to partner with city government to install
  wireless in-car navigation system based on
  real-time traffic information.
• Official goal to raise transit share from current
  27 to 60, with rail and BRT to comprise 40 of
  transit ridership.

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What can China do to restrict the negative impact
of rapid motorization?
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The role of leadership in educating the public
and shaping consumer behavior

• Although I have no legal power to do this, I am
  asking everyone to not buy cars. Shenzhen
  Mayor Xu Zongheng, July 2007
• Number of cars on the road in Shenzhen expected
  to grow by 200,000 this year

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The power of experiments

• Ministry of Construction promoting China Urban
  Transport Week (Sept. 16 - 22, 2007)
• Car Free Day (Sept. 22)
• 107 cities across China committed to participate
  and develop one new pragmatic measure to improve
  public transit.

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Adopt sustainable strategies for urban
transportation

• Maximizing individual choices and mobility
• But minimizing waste of energy, land, and urban
  space
• And sustaining resources for future generations

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Five tenets of sustainable urban transportation
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1. Walk to your destination whenever possible.
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2. If you cant walk, ride a bicycle.
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3. If you cant ride a bicycle, take a bus.
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4. If you cant ride a bus, take a subway or
train.
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5. If there is no alternative, drive a car. But
--

• Make sure that its a fuel-efficient vehicle.
• Look for a hybrid or alternative fuel vehicle.
• Use a shared-use vehicle before you buy one.
• Combine single-purpose car trips.
• Minimize single-driver trips.

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New ideas and time-tested strategies which
might apply to sustainability challenges in
Chinese cities
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Bus Rapid Transit (BRT)

• Dedicated bus lanes and tech solutions provide
  faster travel time
• Less expensive and more flexible than rail

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Retain bicycles

• Formerly the backbone of urban transportation in
  China
• Shanghai now prohibiting bicycles on selected
  major streets
• Still practical for simple trips and
  home-to-transit commuting
• Recent announcement of 1-euro one-way bike
  rentals (300 stations) in Paris

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Protect pedestrians
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Protect pedestrian amenities.
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Use land more efficiently around bus and rail
corridors

• Transit-oriented development (TOD) to take
  advantage of urban density
• Mixture of urban uses (residential, commercial,
  industrial)
• Reduction of parking requirements near transit
  stations and lines
• Workplace housing

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Transportation Demand Management (TDM)
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Protect urban neighborhoods against incursion by
cars
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Expand enforcement of laws

• Need for fast crews to remove disabled vehicles
  blocking traffic or distracting other drivers
• Expanded vehicle ticketing improves compliance
  with law and brings revenue to local government

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Develop clean vehicles for domestic use and export

• Opportunity to leapfrog over obsolete,
  inefficient auto industry technology
• Opportunity for China to lead the world, showing
  how economic growth and sustainable development
  can be reconciled

• Chinas 2004 law establishing fuel economy
  standards for light-duty vehicles would set
  standards in 2007 higher than U.S. CAFÉ standards
  -- but will economic growth priorities undermine
  energy conservation goals?

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Encouraging examples from around the world worth
learning about (1)

• CURITIBA, Brazil Despite the citys population
  doubling since 1974, auto traffic has declined by
  30 due to expansion of its bus and bicycle
  systems. There is 1 car for every 3 people, but
  2/3 of all trips are taken on the bus.

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Encouraging examples from around the world worth
learning about (2)

• TOKYO, Japan Despite car ownership at nearly 1
  car for every 2 people, Tokyo has succeeded at
  getting 92 of its downtown commuters to travel
  by rail only 55 of domestic travel in Japan is
  by car.

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How to move China forward

• Continuing education and training
• Urban sustainability pilot projects
• Studying overseas models of sustainable urban
  development
• National urban sustainability targets

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Which way will China go in the future?