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The%20Global%20Ocean%20Observing%20System%20for%20Climate%20(GCOS,%20GOOS,%20WCRP)

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Title: The%20Global%20Ocean%20Observing%20System%20for%20Climate%20(GCOS,%20GOOS,%20WCRP)


1
The Global Ocean Observing System for
Climate (GCOS, GOOS, WCRP)
  • D.E. Harrison
  • Chair, OOPC
  • SCOR Coordination Mtg.
  • London, Dec 2006

2
Outline
  • Background on OOPC, Plan Planning
  • Some data and observing system aspects
  • Observing system status Dec. 2006
  • Some available results products state of the
    ocean.
  • Indices,
  • Reanalyses,
  • GODAE-type near-real time analyses
  • Ahead

3
Ocean Observations Panel for Climate - Terms of
Reference
  • Develop recommendations for a sustained global
    ocean observing system, in support of WCRP, GOOS
    and GCOS climate objectives, including phased
    implementation.
  • Help develop a process for ongoing evaluation and
    evolution of system and recommendations.
  • Support global ocean observing activities by
    involved parties, via liaison and advocacy for
    agreed observing plans

4
Sustained Global Ocean Observing System for
Climate
  • Data Information Products for
  • Climate Forecasting
  • Climate Assessment
  • Climate Research
  • System is also the foundation for global
    operational oceanography
  • Intention is that it evolve and expand.

5
Evaluation Evolution
  • Strategy is to evaluate effectiveness by
    estimating uncertainty against signals of
    interest adaptive approach
  • Evolution to be driven by capacity proven
    hardware, agreed best practices, ability to work
    globally, cost feasibility variable by variable
  • Coordination of variable-focused efforts is
    essential
  • Initial system is physical carbon

6
GCOS IP Summarizes Initial Plan Recommendations
  • Sustain proven ocean satellite data streams and
    in situ activities
  • Obtain global coverage with
  • initial surface system
  • initial subsurface system
  • Improve ocean data system, including telcoms
  • Increase effort on ocean analysis reanalysis
  • Maintain strong linkages with research programs
    for data collection, OS evaluation, new
    technology, pilot projects, new science, etc.

7
Summary
  • Plan widely accepted and endorsed (e.g., UNFCCC,
    GEO)
  • Present efforts depend heavily upon ocean
    research funds, people and assets.
  • Shortage of national institutions for sustained
    ocean activities
  • National operational global oceanography in
    infancy limited operational pull for system
  • Satellite futures uncertain
  • Real time data system is essential and is
    developing well

8
Some Recent O.S. Documents
  • GCOS Satellite Supplement
  • CEOS response to GCOS IP
  • IGOS-P Coastal Theme
  • IGOS-P Cryosphere Theme
  • IGOS-P Ocean Theme review/revision

9
Workshops of Particular Relevance to Global OOS
last year
  • JCOMM Obs PA on Observing Program Support (OPS)
  • WCRP global sea level rise
  • CLIVAR ocean reanalysis metrics
  • Atlantic Carbon synthesis plans
  • Meta-Temp on real time metadata
  • Sea Ice - Helsinki
  • Argo Science Conf. 2
  • GODAE ST
  • JCOMM Mgmt. 5

10
Observing Program Support Center
  • Meeting in DC of observing programs identified a
    strong need for enhanced observing program
    support.
  • JCOMM OPS has been very helpful but is not
    enough.
  • Estimate of needed FTEs is 7
  • Need ability to take action to address problems
    identified.

11
OOPC Liaison Activities
  • Panel members participated in more than 30
    meetings and workshops last year.
  • Liaison w. coastal GOOS, JCOMM, CEOS, IGOS-P and
    IMBER has been increasing

12
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13
Some Data System Aspects
14
GTS Data Transmission
  • Necessary in order to manage a system with global
    coverage and specified data density
  • Helps QC in several ways
  • Facilitates data management
  • Overhead is modest.

15
Data Servers for GTS Data
  • Coriolis data server
  • http//coriolis.eu.org/cdc/default.htm
  • US GODAE data server
  • http//www.usgodae.org
  • If it comes in, you should be able to get it.

16
Linking GTS Obs and Metadata
  • Meta-Temp pilot project (JCOMM) for SST and
    T(z)
  • Depends on pre-stored metadata and agreed BUFR
    templates
  • China has volunteered metadata center to attach
    metadata to obs before going onto GTS

17
Other
  • Long term data access even of GTS observations
    depends on WODC and NODCs
  • Development and use of best practices for
    observations and metadata will always be
    discretionary
  • Agreement on climate QC process still
    developing even for T(z), S(z)

18
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19
Observing System Implementation Status
  • Will show some changes, but not the element by
    element status done in previous presentations.
  • Will file JCOMM OCG status PPt for reference
    status of all elements
  • Slides from Mike Johnson, Chair of JCOMM
    Observations Program Area.
  • Will hear about OceanSites separately

20
Initial Global Ocean Observing System for Climate
Status against the GCOS Implementation Plan and
JCOMM targets
April 2006
56
Total in situ networks
57
100
42
81
81
43
66
48
21
  • A total of 5635 platforms are
  • maintained globally.
  • The U.S. supports 2963

21
Multi-year Phased Implementation
Plan (representative milestones)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2006
2005
2007
2008
2009
2010
170
Real-time Stations, Initial GCOS Subset
126
148
51 56 67 67 69
79
91
106
Tide Gauge Stations
1250
1250
1250
1250
1250
1250
975
Number of buoys
807
671
779
787
Surface Drifting Buoys
119
97
104
115
Number of moorings
83
86
91
77
77
79
79
Tropical Moored Buoys
200
200
200
200
Number of ships recruited
180
150
0 0
108
112
VOS Clim Ships
60
51
51
51
High resolution frequently repeated lines
occupied
44
49
23 24
39
26
26
27
Ships of Opportunity
3000
3000
3000
3000
3000
2300
20 31 544
Number of floats
1572
923
Argo Floats
89
Observatories, flux, and ocean transport stations
78
15 29 35 37
49
54
60
41
42
Reference Stations
31
Repeat Sections Completed, One inventory per 10
years
28
20
23
0 0 1 4
15
17
Ocean Carbon Network
9
Initial Ocean Observing System Milestones
99
JCOMM-I JCOMM-II
88
77
66
60
48
55
System Complete
Total System
40
45
30
34
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2006
2005
2007
2008
2009
2010
22
Some Observing System news
  • Surface drifters to report multiple times/day for
    diurnal SST SLP
  • Indonesian Throughflow mooring
  • Tropical mooring array expansion Indian and
    Atlantic
  • Argo recompetition going ok
  • RAPID Atlantic MOC PP
  • Linkage growing w. Tsunami effort is helping
    GLOSS Tide gauge network

23
Ocean Satellite Status Summary
See CEOS Response to GCOS-IP Report to UNFCCC
(2006) for more
24
Moored Buoys PIRATA extensions and Indian Ocean
Array
25
Integrating tsunami DART buoys into GOOS
Chilean Tsunami Buoy being deployed during a U.S.
Climate mission
Met sensors will be installed by USA on
the Chilean tsunami buoy in October
Sites where Tsunami and Climate plans overlap --
potential for coordination Sites where Climate
missions already deploy tsunami buoys routinely
26
GCOS Climate Reference Network of Tide Gauge
Stations
By the end of 2007 most of the 170 Climate
Reference Tide Gauge Stations Will Provide Marine
Hazards Warning in Real Time
27
Surface Drifting Buoys -- 1313 reporting Target
1250 sustained array (achieved)
Now Platforms of Opportunity for additional
sensors (pressure, wind, temp profiles, salinity)
28
Argo 2527 active floats -- will reach 3000 by
early 2007
29
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30
Information on the State of the Ocean
  • Want to generate interest in near-real time
    information about the ocean
  • Climate indices are one route
  • Mostly ocean surface at present
  • Working with CLIVAR on development of subsurface
    indices

31
The Ocean is now prominent in the BAMS annual
State of the Climate special edition.
7 Ocean State Variables reported in
2005. Target 15
32
The State of the Ocean Climate Indices
  • OOPC Climate Index WebSite
  • http//ioc3.unesco.org/oopc/state_of_the_ocean/ind
    ex.php
  • Sea Ice
  • Nino3 Nino3.4 SOI El Nino status
  • Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
  • SE Indian Ocean

33
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34
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35
SEA ICE EXTENT For SEPTEMBERs (NSIDC)
ARCTIC ANTARCTIC
36
Equatorial pacific anomalies zonal wind, SST,
Z20 last two years
37
SST and Surface Wind, Tropical Pacific
2-6 Dec 2006
38
2
NINO 3.4 SSTA (Deg. C) One-Sigma Anomaly now
1
Deg C
-1
-2
1981 1991
2001
1
-1
12/04
12/06
39
Nino 3 SSTA (Deg. C)
3
1
Deg C
-1
-3
1981 1991
2001
1
-1
12/04
12/06
40
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Index
Is basically area average of Atlantic SSTA
north of Equator
0.6
0.2
Deg C
-0.2
-0.6
1981 1991
2001
41
1
SE Tropical Indian Ocean SST Index (Deg. C)
Deg C
-1
1981 1991
2001
12/04
12/06
42
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43
Take Home Messages Ocean Indices
  • OOPC Web site delivers a range of indices,
    updated weekly where possible
  • Mostly are ocean surface climate indices
  • Need for development of subsurface indices
  • Not always simple to agree indices because
    indices inevitably oversimplify
  • Site has capability to serve others

44
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45
Some Other Observation Results
  • Ocean Heat Content Argo Uncertainty
  • Ocean subsurface temperature trends
  • Arctic Sea Ice Extent Trend Uncertainty
  • Ocean Carbon Uptake Variability Estimates

46
Argo Improves Upper Ocean Heat Content Estimates
  • 2002 Argo at 18
  • poor spatial coverage
  • Good coverage blue
  • Poor coverage red
  • Annual error 1.5 Watt m-2
  • 2005 Argo at 66
  • coverage vastly improved
  • Annual error 0.5 Watt m-2
  • Argo quantified recent 2-year (2003 - 2005) upper
    ocean heat content loss
  • 1.0 (?0.3) Watt m-2

Variance in 0-750m heat content likely observed
with instruments in situ 2002 vs 2005. Blue
good. Red bad
47
Results from CLIVAR Ocean Reanalysis Metrics Works
hop
Vecchi 2006 (pers. Communication)
48
Some Upper Ocean Temperature Trend Results from
WOD2000 2005
  • D.E. Harrison
  • Mark A. Carson
  • NOAA/PMEL

49
100m
300m
100m
300m
World Ocean Atlas 2001 Number of observations
for 2x2 regions
500m
600m
500m
600m
1000m
2000m
1000m
2000m
50
Some individual time series
41N, 175E 100 m 2 x 10
25N, 67W 300 m 3 x 3
51
20 year trends at 100m
96 of all boxes change sign at least once over
the 45-year period
52
20 year trends at 300m
96 of all boxes change sign at least once over
the 45-year period
53
20 year trends at 500m
97 of all boxes change sign at least once over
the 45-year period
54
51Yr 90 signif. trend magnitude 100 m
C per 51 years
C per 51 years
55
51yr 90signif. trend magnitude 300 m
C per 51 years
C per 51 years
56
Comparison of WOD01 to WOD05 2x10 - 100 m
WOD01 trend 0.056 WOD05 trend 0.013
57
Other Ocean Climate Index Results
58
From GCOS/GOOS Sea Ice Wk. Group Sept 2006
Helsinki
Courtesy Florence Fetterer, NSIDC
in 1996/1997 , NIC - Transitioned to digital
imagery (OLS/AVHRR) and digital analysis in GIS
format Started using SAR data in tactically
significant areas Now, NIC uses Quicksat to
compensate for deficiencies in SSM/I
59
Air-Sea Carbon Flux variability (est.) w. time
and region of ocean (Feely, pers comm)
60
Take-Home Messages
  • Interannual and Decadal variability are large
    almost everywhere we have observed systematically
  • Spatial patterns of even multi-decadal trends
    seem to be complex and roughly balanced in sign
  • 50yr temp trends elusive except _at_50m
  • Sea ice trends depend on analysis

61
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62
GODAE-Type Products
  • Some national operational oceanography centres
    now established, e.g., UK NCOF.
  • Many products are now available from individual
    project web sites, e.g., Mercator, FOAM, HYCOM.
  • GODAE Project office is preparing list and
    documentation.
  • Will file with this presentation as soon as
    available. Some products are listed here.
  • GODAE wraps up in 2008. Will be final
    Conference. Way forward is under discussion.

63
Some GODAE-type Products
  • BlueLink (http//www.cmar.csiro.au/bluelink/exprod
    ucts/index.htm)
  • CERFACS (http//www.cerfacs.fr/globc/research/as
    similation/)
  • FNMOC/GODAE (http//www.usgodae.org/cgi-bin/datal
    ist.pl?summaryGodsetfnmoc_glb_ocn)
  • FOAM (http//www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/ncof/fo
    am/index.html) GMAO (http//gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/r
    esearch/ocean/)
  • HYCOM (http//hycom.rsmas.miami.edu/)
  • MERCATOR (http//www.mercator-ocean.fr/html/system
    es_ops/index_en.html)
  • NCEP/GODAS (http//www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products
    /GODAS/)
  • SODA (http//www.atmos.umd.edu/ocean/)

64
AHEAD
  • Overarching issue remains to encourage national
    actions to establish agents for implementation to
    complete and then sustain ocean actions called
    for in GCOS IP
  • Need to address expansion of initial plan to
    include areas not addressed ecosystem, ocean
    transports, etc.

65
AHEAD
  • Advocate for Observing Program Support (OPS)
    Centre
  • VOS situation
  • Ocean Climate index/product development
  • GODAE toward conclusion
  • Ecosystem OS development?
  • Arctic Antarctic OS development?
  • Carbon sampling plan?
  • Sensor workshop metadata ?
  • MARCDAT-3 08
  • ?OceanObs09?

66
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67
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