Climate change mitigation: what does it mean for trade unions and workers

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Climate change mitigation what does it mean for
trade unions and workers?

• Pre-orientation meeting
• COP13, Bali

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Outline

• What is mitigation?
• How much reduction in GHG emissions ? and when?
• How GHG emissions can be reduced?
• The economics of climate change Stern report
• Impact of mitigation policies on employment

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Mitigation

• To reduce Greenhouse Gas emissions
• Art. 2 of the UN Framework Convention on climate
  change To stabilize greenhouse gas
  concentrations at a level which will avoid
  dangerous climate change, allowing ecosystems to
  adapt naturally to climate change, ensuring food
  production is not threatened and enabling
  economic development to proceed in a sustainable
  manner
• Two key questions
• ? What are the criteria to define limits to
  climate changes?
• To what extent is mitigation compatible with
  economic development ?
• Decoupling economic growth from GHG emissions

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How much reduction in GHG is needed?

• IPCC 4th Assessment report
• Adaptation can not be a substitute for mitigation
  mitigation will always be required to avoid
  dangerous and irreversible changes to the climate
  system
• The lower the final CO2 stabilisation target
  level, the earlier global CO2 emissions have to
  peak (eg. 445-490ppm 2015)
• Mitigation efforts over the next two to three
  decades will have a large impact on opportunities
  to achieve lower stabilization levels

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Characteristics of stabilisation scenarios (IPCC
FAR)
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Peak in 2015
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Good news Technology already exists

• Potential could offset the projected growth of
  global emissions, or reduce emissions below
  current levels
• Substantial mitigation opportunities involving
  net benefits (costs less than 0), with a large
  share being located in the buildings sector.

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All sectors and regions have the potential to
contribute
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Energy efficiency plays the most significant role
in the CO2 reductions by 2030 (source IEA)
Energy efficiency is the single largest
contributor to CO2reductions, is cost-effective
and reduces energy dependency
Source Energy Technology Perspectives, IEA
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A diverse portfolio approach will be needed but
some features are clear

• Energy Efficiency available now at low or no
  cost !
• Natural Gas, Coal with CO2 capture storage
• Biofuels, Renewables with lower costs and
  sustainable carbon cycle
• Nuclear. with safe waste management
• H2 Fuel Cells with lower cost
• Strong reduction from deforestation are needed
  through sustainable management of forests

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The importance of RDD policies

• Deployment of low-GHG emission technologies and
  RDD would be required for achieving
  stabilization targets and cost reduction.
• The lower the stabilization levels, especially
  those of 550 ppm CO2-eq or lower, the greater the
  need for more efficient RDD efforts and
  investment in new technologies during the next
  few decades.
• Government support through financial
  contributions, tax credits, standard setting and
  market creation is important for effective
  technology development, innovation and
  deployment.
• Government funding for most energy research
  programmes has been flat or declining for nearly
  two decades (even after the UNFCCC came into
  force) now about half of 1980 level.

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RD
Nuclear has had the largest share
Substantial additional investments in and
policies for RD are needed
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Changes in lifestyle and behaviour patterns can
contribute to climate change mitigation

• IPCC 4th Assessment report
• Education and training programmes can help
  overcome barriers to the market acceptance of
  energy efficiency
• Reduction of car usage and efficient driving
  style, in relation to urban planning and
  availability of public transport
• In industry, management tools that include staff
  training, reward systems, regular feedback,
  documentation of existing practices

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Overall economic impact Stern report

• Stern report costs of inaction almost certainly
  very high, whereas mitigation costs comparatively
  limited
• If no action is taken the costs will represent at
  least 5 of GDP each year. Allowing for other
  factors, the figure could be as high as 20!
• On the other hand the policies necessary to
  stabilise global greenhouse gas concentrations
  and thus temperatures are estimated at around 1
  of GDP a year.
• Moreover, climate change also offers growth
  opportunities for those firms and countries
  offering smart technologies
• Stern concluded Tackling climate change is the
  progrowth strategy ignoring it will ultimately
  undermine economic growth

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Impact of mitigation on employmentETUC study,
Appolo, Dutch Energy4sure

• Massive and rapid technological change processes
  will lead to major impacts on employment in all
  sectors
• Overall, mitigation should not lead to net job
  losses. Jobs in activities based on conventional
  energy production will be replaced by jobs in
  labour intensive sectors
• Mitigation can also be positive for energy
  security, health, social inclusion, air quality
• BUT
• Winning and loosing jobs are not fully
  substituable redeployment of workers likely to
  be harmfull
• Risks and opportunities rather than loosing
  and winning activities

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New job opportunities

• New energy and transport infrastructure
  investments in developing countries, upgrades of
  energy and transport infrastructure in
  industrialized countries
• ? design and equipment manufacturing (Renewable
  energy, public transport, clean automotive tech)
  RES Germany 170.000 jobs
• ? operating and maintenance for Renewable
  energy sources and Gas, public transport
• ? urban planning engineers
• Energy efficiency improvements in buildings
• ? manufacturing of energy efficient appliances
  (ex.bulbs)
• ? construction industry
• ? energy savings consultants and engineers
• Forest-related mitigation options

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Jobs that may be negatively affected

• Power generation from coal (except with CCS?) and
  coal mines
• Refining
• Automotive industries
• Road freight transport if modal shift
• Globalised energy intensive industries, if
  mitigation is implemented in one country or group
  of countries (could also lead to higher emissions
  elsewhere (carbon leakage))

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Conclusion (1)

• This requires a new social agenda to
• anticipate, and assist workers to adapt to change
• provide education and training in the new
  sectors
• improve attractiveness and working conditions in
  the new sectors (eg. energy services)
• make sure that the burdens as well as the
  benefits are fairly distributed (eg. CO2
  taxation)
• Social policies must be seen as a parallel
  investment to that in resource-saving
  technology

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Conclusion (2)

• The major structural changes required by any
  serious energy/climate policy offer considerable
  opportunities for trade unions because regulatory
  action by governments will be needed as the
  market cant solve the problem the workplace is
  a key arena the scale of change is such that
  unions support will be vital.
• The energy issue may be a lever that can be used
  by unions to get what they want in important
  areas outside the immediate area of energy
  policy e.g. worker participation in company
  decision making, corporate social responsibility,
  better working conditions/health and safety,
  supportive active labour market policy, support
  for RD and innovation.
• Trade unions have the challenge of explaining to
  members (and policymakers) the scale of the
  changes required and representing the interests
  of losers without blocking needed change.

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• ETUC study on Employment and climate change
• Full report is available at
• www.etuc.org