Metron Aviation

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• Metron Aviation
• CE Overview for
• TFM Research Board
• Mark Klopfenstein
• Oct, 16 2008

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Metron Aviation CE Projects
Airspace Congestion Management
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Concept SEVEN

• System Enhancements for Versatile
• Electronic Negotiation
• Continued concept refinement through HITLs
• Developing phase implementation plan
• Developing functional and system requirements
• Moving forward towards operational prototypes
  that could support potential field trials

Single Line FCA
Polygon SUA
Multiple Line FCA
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Airspace Congestion Management Research

• Initial research to feed additional white papers
  on new TFM concepts
• Additional/expanded applications of AFP
• FCA airspace capacity estimation

Apply filters
Conceptual DST for setting AFP rates
Bad wx days
All days
Customized FCA
CIWS forecast
Click drag
FCAA08
Historical flow rate (sector triplet usage)
Suggested range for FCA rate based on filters and
location
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Airspace Optimization

• Current Focus leverage NetFM technology to
  develop practical DST application(s)
• NetFM status
• Completed full-scale, NAS-wide Dynamic NetFM
• Optimizes the scheduling and routing of a day of
  flights
• Cells represent one node at one time step
• Time steps represent the average travel time for
  an aircraft to cross a hex cell
• Ground and airborne delays modeled by connecting
  nodes in successive time steps.
• Completed algorithms for defining NetFM
  initialization files
• Filed demand
• Airborne demand
• Airspace capacity
• Completed flow disaggregator for defining optimal
  departure times and routes for each flight

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NetFM Next Steps

• Continue progress towards operational prototype
• Testing and validation with multiple real
  scenarios
• Explore scalability
• Smaller time steps
• More markets
• Arc filtering
• Weather Integration Feed capacity prediction
  results into NetFM
• Develop methods for mapping hex routes to
  existing route structure
• Develop and apply metrics for comparing NetFM
  solutions to other TFM strategies
• How much better is the NetFM solution
• Explore approaches for TMI auto-suggest

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Reroute Impact Assessment

• Working with Volpe on historical analysis aimed
  at identifying best way to model reroutes that
  are not uniquely defined
• Prototyping map-based route builder that will
  allow FAA and customers to quickly easily
  generate good routes
• Explore concepts for graphically creating
  reroutes
• Point-and-click and snap-to nearest fix, NAVAID,
  or NRS waypoint
• Piecing together existing segments
• Algorithmically identify pre-coordinated reroutes
  that best approximate user drawn waypoints
• Develop rules for defining a good or flyable
  route

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Route Builder
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Route Builder (2)
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Constructing Good Routes
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Departure Flow Management
DFM is a web-based capability that automates the
APREQ release process

• How it works (high-level)
• The ARTCC TMC creates FEAs using a TSD to define
  the flows they need to monitor
• The ARTCC TMC enters restrictions on the flows
  using the DFM web application
• DFM queries TFMS for the FEA flight list and
  entry times
• DFM identifies all gaps in the restricted flow
  and presents a timeline for the TMC to monitor
• When a pilot calls for taxi, the ATCT looks for
  the flight on their DFM web application
• If the flight is restricted, DFM shows all of the
  available release times for the flight
• The ATCT selects the desired release time
• DFM assigns the flight to the first available
  release time at or after the desired time and
  sends this information to the ARTCC TMC
• Current focus
• Harden v1.4 of DFM prototype for field operations
• Support long-term field evaluations at 3-6
  Centers beginning in March 2009

Center Browser Display
Tower Browser Display
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Excessive Surface Delays

• Irregular operations often lead to long (hours)
  delays between pushback and takeoff
• Heart of problem leading to Customer Bill of
  Rights
• Conducting analysis to better understand
  conditions that lead to such delays

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TFM Surface Data Initiative (TSDI)

• Documented airport adaptation process used in
  current surface movement event extraction (SMEE)
  and transitioned to Volpe
• Supporting Volpe with rolling out TSDI to
  additional airports

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Airport Congestion Management Research

• Control by Time of Arrival (CbTA)
• Developing concept of operations
• Benefits assessment
• Develop execute proof-of-concept operational
  demonstration
• Plan for national deployment
• Working with Volpe to develop Unified GDP concept
  of operations
• Initial research to feed additional white papers

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Integrated Program Modeling (IPM)

• Prototype component in FSM that allows for
• Multiple program modeling
• Ability to compare the results of multiple
  scenarios (sets of GDPs/AFPs/Ground Stops)
• Aggregation of delay statistics of multiple
  programs
• Designed to help validate traffic managers
  decisions to implement sets of programs
• Produces real-time feedback to traffic managers
  about program effects on other monitored NAS
  resources
• Prototype currently being evaluated in field
  trials at ATCSCC

Delay Results Panel
Series of IPM Bar graphs with scenario-based
arrival flow rates
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System Integrated TMIs

• Continued analysis into the interaction between
  TMIs when layered together
• Continued CE on IPM concepts
• Additional displays for flight-level impacts
• Extend modeling to sector-level
• CE support to development for IPM execution
• Develop initial concept for NAS-wide EDCT
  programs
• Develop TFM war game capability

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Domain Integration Research

• Analyze SUA information and its current usage
• Develop conops for Integrated Airport Capacity
  Model (IACM)
• Support the development of Integrated Departure
  Arrival Capability (IDAC) conops and requirements
• Initial research to feed additional white papers

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Integrated Airport Capacity Model Overview

• Integrates weather forecast data with published
  weather-dependent airport capacities
• Uses statistical methods to compute a
  probabilistic airport capacity forecast
• Forecast provides 25th, 50th, and 75th percentile
  airport arrival capacities based on RUC ceiling
  and visibility forecasts

RUC Ceiling/Visibility forecast
Probability of actual wx based on forecast
Capacity as a function of probable actual wx
Display range in capacity out to 8 hours
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Incorporating Terminal Airspace Capacity
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Operations Analysis

• Analysis of current TFM operations with a focus
  on
• Identifying trends
• Defining and exploring current problems
• Generating strategies for incorporating analysis
  results into operations
• Includes analyst support on-site at ATCSCC
• Includes support for CDM workgroups (FCT, FET,
  GDPE)

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Operations Analysis Topics

• Recently Completed
• AFP Operations and Benefits 2008 SWAP Season
• AFP Operations and Benefits Winter 2007/2008
  (Mexican AFPs)
• Las Vegas GAAP GDP Equity
• Layered TMIs
• AFPs to Manage New York Metro Departure Demand
• In Progress
• AFPs to Control TRACON Arrival Demand (C90 PCT)
• AFPs to Manage New York Metro Arrival Demand
• Metrics to Determine Maximum Daily AFP/GDPs
• Potential Future
• Integrated Collaborative Rerouting (ICR)
  Operations
• Potential Impacts of 24x7 GDPs at Often-Congested
  Airports
• Impacts of including additional Canadian
  departure airports in EDCT programs
• Effects of issuing GDPs earlier on day of use
• Effects of 2008 Q4 airline schedule reductions

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Performance Metrics

• Developed a suite of metrics that describe the
  performance of many aspects of the NAS
• Long-term goal measure how TFM affects the
  performance of the NAS
• For a given TFM enhancement, or investment, what
  effect would it have on NAS performance?
• Current focus
• Maintain metrics website and compute 2009 values
  for existing suite of metrics add new metrics as
  needed
• Compile data for, and update periodically, a TFM
  Factbook illustrating the impact of TFM
  activities on civil aviation in the U.S.
• Continue to develop passenger-based metrics to
  illustrate impact of TFM activities on passenger
  trip time
• Interpret long-term trends and investigate days
  having extreme values for each metric
• Research ways to align our metrics with NextGen
  Operational Improvements

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TFM Factbook

• Facts about TFM and the NAS
• of flights per year
• Statistics on flight delays
• Top airports, air carriers and traffic/delay
  statistics
• Passenger impact
• New analysis compares a GDP to what might have
  happened had the GDP not been run
• Assumes airborne holding in lieu of GDP
• Fewer delay minutes, but higher total cost and
  less safe
• Also computes fuel saved by GDPs
• Total benefit 1 billion per year

not validated thoroughly yet!
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CE Infrastructure

• Data Management
• Collect, process, store, and maintain data need
  to support TFM concept engineering activities
• Improve data quality
• Integrated Simulation Environment (ISE)
• Performance improvements to handle up to NextGen
  predicted traffic levels
• Historic NAS element definition database
• Demonstrate Time Based Metering simulation
  capabilities

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White Papers

• Surface Congestion Fuel Burn Reduction
• Identify and analyze future concepts to reduce
  surface congestion and thereby reduce fuel burn.
  Examples include virtual queues,
  slow-roll/managed taxi speeds, etc
• Dynamic Allocation of NAS Resources
• "Dynamic Airspace Configuration is likely to be a
  key part of the future NAS. This project will
  explore operational concepts for partitioning
  portions of airspace for specialized temporary
  use to demonstrate what is achievable using
  todays tools. An example is to use existing
  FEA/FCA capabilities to define temporary
  exclusion zones around arrival routes as a means
  to monitor, schedule, and coordinate Continuous
  Descent Arrival (CDA) operations
• Pre-day of Operations TFM concepts
• Explore and evaluate concepts for conducting TFM
  activities before the day of operations using
  predominately airline schedule and/or historical
  data

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White Papers

• Environmental Modeling Analysis of TFM
  performance (fuel burn estimation)
• Develop (using, e.g., POET-R and NASEIM) methods
  to compute fuel burn for individual flights.
  Conduct pilot study of impact on fuel burn of
  various TFM actions. First step toward having a
  fuel burn analysis capability that might be
  incorporated into decision support tools.
• ESP Delay Estimation
• Apply automation developed to support DFM to the
  ESP delay prediction problem, to assess the best
  approach to and potential value of automatically
  forecasting these delays in aggregate
• Surface Data Usage
• Continue the CE that was started under the TSDI
  project to develop concepts for increased use of
  surface surveillance data including better
  departure time predictions, improved awareness of
  surface operations, and greater insight into
  gridlock identification, prediction, and
  prevention

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White Papers

• NextGen of FSM slot assignment logic
• Current FSM slot assignment algorithms date from
  the 1990s and only partially accomplished their
  goals of efficiency, equity, predictability and
  control. This effort will examine alternative
  approaches such as Lagrangian relaxation to
  rewrite FSM algorithms to be more flexible and
  better able to achieve TFM objectives
• SUA Information Research
• Develop concepts to increase the utilization of
  SUA for commercial aviation. One such idea is to
  adapt the SEVEN concept to the special case of
  SUA utilization to electronically communicate the
  requirements of the military for SUA and to
  quickly make use of the airspace when the
  military doesn't need it.
• Additional AFP Capability Usage
• AFPs were designed specifically as a replacement
  for GDPs in support of SWAP however, additional
  applications such as AFPs for Mexican MIT have
  also been adapted. This work will further
  explore and develop additional applications of
  AFPs to improve TFM.

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White Papers

• Departure Information Services
• Continued CE on the concepts and functionality
  developed by the DFM workgroup including
  departure fix balancing and using DFM departure
  controls to increase constrained airspace
  throughput. New capabilities could potentially go
  into the current DFM prototype or the WP2 IDAC
  capability.
• Airspace Capacity Estimation
• One of the biggest challenges with AFPs or other
  airspace TMIs is knowing the capacity of the
  region of airspace when it is impacted by
  weather. This work will seek to apply to growing
  body of research into airspace capacity
  estimation to develop near-term decision support
  capabilities.
• Airborne Delay Research
• Apply existing algorithms for measuring where
  airborne delays occur to develop an Airspace
  Congestion Predictor (ACP) that would provides
  metrics for measuring existing airspace
  congestion, the capability to predict future
  airborne delays and congestion, and provide
  metrics for comparing candidate TFM strategies