The Two Irelands: The Role of Foresight Dr' David Stewart, Chair in Irish Business Studies

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The Two Irelands The Role of ForesightDr.
David Stewart,Chair in Irish Business Studies

• June 6, 2006

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Overview

• Overall Theme
• Managing Change in Ireland
• The National Foresight Project
• The BMW Foresight Project
• Implications for NL

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One Ireland The Celtic Tiger

• Attracting FDI (1990-2000)
• Low cost, English speaking labour
• Series of Grants
• Low corporate tax rate(0, 10, 12.5)
• Duty-free Access to large market
• Result High ROI.

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Threats to the Celtic Tiger

• Declining FDI levels
• Dot Com bubble
• 9/11
• EU Expansion
• 10 new countries May 2004
• Low corporate tax
• Access to Structural Funds
• Visited Ireland

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Threats to the Celtic Tiger

• Victim of Own Success
• Rising Wage costs
• Rising Location costs
• Declining Structural funding

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A Clever Quote

• It is not the strongest of the species that
  survives, nor the most intelligent that survives.
  It is the one that is the most adaptable to
  change. (Darwin)

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The Celtic FoxThe New Ireland

• New Direction
• Focus on Biotech, ICT and Services
• Shift in Investment Prospecting
• Firms involved in Research and Technology
• Develop an appropriate support Infrastructure.

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How did they do it?

• National Foresight Study (1999-2000)
• Economy divided into 8 sectors.
• Expert Panels formed for each sector.
• Objectives for each sector
• Identify strategic technologies
• Select Targets and Strategies
• Promote integration of the players.

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What is Foresight?

• Process that brings together policy makers, key
  stakeholders and knowledge sources (experts) in
  order to
• Determine what trends might be important in the
  future and how that future may be shaped
• Create a unified strategic vision of the future
• To establish working networks amongst
  stakeholders.

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Who has used it?

• All EU countries (25)
• Japan, Australia, US
• Ireland
• National Foresight Exercise
• Dublin City Foresight
• Education Foresight
• BMW Foresight

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Policy Implications

• Established a Science and Technology Fund
• 700 m euros.
• SFI Established in 2000
• Research Excellence
• Biotech and ICT
• 7 Centres of Excellence
• Coop with Industry
• Attract Top Researchers
• Culture of RTI
• Teachers and students

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Economic Framework
Is It Working?

• World Competitiveness Scoreboard
• Ireland 11th Canada 7th
• World Economic Forum
• Ireland 19th Canada 13th

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Innovation Systems
Is It Working?

• EU Innovation Index 2004
• Ireland improving but growth rate declining.
• EU Innovation Index 2005
• Ireland stalled at average.
• Ireland some success on re-investment.

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Education System
Is It Working?

• World Competitiveness Yearbook
• Meets needs of competitive economy
• Ireland 2nd / 60
• Level of University Education
• Ireland 5th / 60

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Is It Working?
Real GDP Growth
Source Adapted From The Economic and Social
Research Institute (http//www.esri.ie/content.cfm
?tIrish20Economymid4)
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Is It Working?
Total Employment Created in IDA Supported
Companies
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Is It Working?
Employment in IDA Supported Companies
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• PART II The Two Irelands
• Another perspective

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Another Perspective of Ireland

• Two Regions of Ireland
• Dublin South and East.
• Borders, Midlands, and the West (BMW)

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Regional Foresight

• The BMW Region
• Sparsely populated and rural
• 50 land mass, 27 population
• Outmigration
• 70 live communities lt 1500
• Agriculture, forestry, fishing
• Uneven economic development

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Rationale for BMW Foresight

• Stimulate Debate on long term issues.
• Build consensus on how to address challenges
  facing the region.
• Involve stakeholders in deciding the future of
  the Region.

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What are the Benefits of Regional Foresight?

• Useful to identify regional priorities and their
  fit with provincial/national strategies.
• Need for greater emphasis on sustainability and
  longer term regional planning.

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Objectives BMW Foresight

• To develop investment priorities for BMW based on
  long term challenges by
• Prepare a commonly agreed development program
  amongst policy making bodies.

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Objectives BMW Foresight

• 2. Involve all relevant stakeholders in future
  development of the region.
• Govt and private sectors.
• Development agencies.
• Trade/business associations.
• 3. Enable a deeper understanding of roles,
  challenges, opportunities and benefits.

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Overview of Process BMW Foresight

• 12 month time frame.
• Time Horizon 2025.
• Steering Committee 4 Expert Panels
• Competitive Region
• Innovative Region
• Quality of Life Region
• Knowledge Region

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Overview of Process BMW Foresight

• Wide consultation within region
• Use of web site.
• Submissions invited from interested parties.
• Local/regional/national endorsement obtained.
• experts view progress.

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Overview of Process BMW Foresight

• Prepare SWOT analysisBMW and Ireland.
• Panel Meeting 1
• Foresight training and trends.
• SWOT discussed and themes identified

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Overview of Process BMW Foresight

• Between Panels 1, 2
• Develop scenarios
• Panel Meeting 2 Defining strategic challenges
• Panel presented with scenarios

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Overview of Process BMW Foresight

• Between Meetings 2, 3
• Consulting within the region
• Panel Meeting 3 Strategic responses
• Panel considers strategic responses to the
  scenarios

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Overview of Process BMW Foresight

• Panel Meeting 4 Reporting
• Findings discussed/refined
• Final Report presented to Cabinet

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The Findings

• An overriding vision statement for 2025
• Elements of all 4 scenarios included. Innovation
  dominant.

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The Findings

• 10 strategic objectives, with corresponding
  measures.
• 10 priority projects to be implemented as an
  immediate priority.
• Implementation, monitoring and sample indicators.

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Sample Strategic Objectives

• Place Education Institutions at heart of future
  developments.
• Create an innovation/entrepreneurial culture.
• Invest in leading edge business support

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Sample Strategic Objectives

• Place Education Institutes at heart of future
  developments.

Objective
Program
Action
Place Education Institutes at the heart of future
development
SFI
Hire Innovation Officer in Education Institutes
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Sample Priority Projects

• Invest in Regions Childcare infrastructure.
• Provide Universal Broadband Access.
• Invest in International Access to the BMW Region.

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Sample Priority Project

• Invest in Regions Childcare infrastructure.

Priority
Issue
Program
Action
Invest in Regions Childcare Infrastructure
Womens Participation
NDP
Grants and Tax Relief
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Critical Success Factors

• Buy-in from local, regional national bodies
• Motivation of expert panel members
• Well designed and executed foresight processes
• Strong links with programme planning processes of
  participants
• Endorsement by Central Government
• Credible, actionable and influential outcomes

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Lessons for NL

• Small, peripheral economy succeeds
• Cooperation pays off
• Processes exist
• Regional imbalance not unique
• Solutions have to be strategic

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• Email dstewart_at_mun.ca
• Thank you!