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Energy, Risk, and the Environment

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Title: Energy, Risk, and the Environment


1
Energy, Risk, and the Environment
Energy and Resources Group
  • Daniel M. Kammen
  • Department of Nuclear Engineering
  • Energy and Resources Group Goldman School of
    Public Policy
  • Director, Renewable and Appropriate Energy
    Laboratory (RAEL)
  • University of California, Berkeley
  • Berkeley in Silicon Valley, March 1, 2003

2
Some RAEL Activities
  • Understanding building clean energy markets
  • Distributed generation and clean power
  • Locus of energy locus of impacts
  • Solar and wind fuel cells/hydrogen
    infrastructure
  • Solar, wind, and biomass energy in developing
    nations
  • Energy policy
  • Beyond the environment vs. economy debate
  • Deep cuts in carbon emissions
  • Energy and society
  • Energy and health impacts equity differences
    based on gender, ethnicity and socioeconomics

3
With so much attention focused on this risk, we
must not loose sight of the reasons for the
current situation?
4
A Simple Plan Energy Policy
  • September 11 illustrates the basic problems with
    U. S. resource/economic policy.
  • The U. S. has an energy policy, and it has been
    the same for the last Century cheap wins.
  • We can debate the past but the current policy is
    bad business today. Instead, consider what makes
    sense
  • Energy diversity energy security sound
    economics
  • This is not happening, despite amazing advances
  • Lets look at why we got here, and our options.

5
Global Carbon Budget units are tons of carbon
per year
6
Glacier National Park Montana All glaciers
in the park will be gone by 2070 if retreat
continues at its current rate.
7
GLOBAL WARMING Early Warning Signs
http//www.climatehotmap.org/
Fingerprints and Harbingers
8
And now, appearing in The Economist
9
Average in Berkeley
Energy Star Home
Average Dane
10
Solar PV
Wind
Solar hot water
Geothermal power
Biomass power
Small hydro
Total
Source w/Eric Martinot, World Bank
11
Case 2 Solar PVWorld Solar PV Sales (1988-2001)
12
Introduction to the Kenyan Market
  • Pop 30 million, 75 rural
  • Per capita income 300 (1000 ppp adjusted)
  • Only 2 of rural pop. is served by the electrical
    grid
  • Largest solar PV market per capita among
    non-industrialized countries
  • EAA/RAEL work in solar market for 15 years

13
Kenya Solar Market Growth Linked to
Infrastructure Capacity Building Efforts?
  • SHS market grew out of donor aid market in 1980s
  • Infrastructure capacity building support key
    for sustained growth

14
Research Question 0Are a-Si Panels a Good
Investment?
  • Lower capital cost than x-Si
  • More fragile than x-si
  • Reputation for inconsistent performance

15
Advertising Wars in Kenyan Pressa-Si (low
price) vs. x-Si (quality)
16
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17
Kenya Solar Market Supply Chain
  • 75 of market unsubsidized SHS sales
  • Solar supply chain is competitive extensive
  • 10 major import companies
  • 50 solar vendors in Nairobi
  • 500 town based vendors
  • 1000 to 2000 solar technicians
  • 20,000 SHS sold annually
  • A regional hub

18
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19
Finding Systems in the FieldCruising Solar
  • Energy Alternatives Africa, Nairobi
  • Local vendors and technicians
  • KPLC field crews

20
Performance Results for a-Si PV Modules(data
from 1999)
21
(No Transcript)
22
Staebler Wronski Degradation for a New NAPS aSi
PV Module
23
PV Module Output vs. Age
24
Linking Research to Action Communicating
Conclusions to Get Results
  • International academic policy community
  • Solar module manufacturers
  • Kenyan solar energy industry
  • Rural Kenyans

Solar Energy Seminar January 18, 2000 Nairobi,
Kenya
25
Linking Research to ActionBuilding Capacity in
the Kenya Solar Market
  • Solarnet Communicating with solar technicians
  • AJs Technical Tips for capacity building -
    Arne Jacobson
  • Seminars in Nairobi
  • stakeholder meeting on capacity building in solar
    industry
  • Support fundraising to implement recommendations

26
Kenya Solar Supply Chain Survey Results
  • Key Results
  • Non-specialist solar technicians vendors
    dominate the Kenyan solar supply chain
  • Few non-specialists have adequate training
    knowledge to provide high quality services
  • Willingness to pay for training information is
    high
  • Non-specialists are vendors technicians for
    whom solar is only a small part of work

27
Seven Reasons for Emergence of the Kenya Solar
Home System Market
  • 1) Electricity from grid is unavailable
  • 2) Automotive battery use high in rural areas
  • 3) Television broadcast signals in rural Kenya
  • 4) PV import companies in Nairobi in 1980s
  • SHS supply chain grew out of donor aid supply
    chain
  • 5) Innovative marketing by solar vendors
    (catalysts)
  • 6) Price of solar accessories decreasing over
    time
  • 7) Kenyan rural middle class development
  • cash crops, remittances, rural teachers

28
Capacity Building in the Kenya Solar Market
  • Conventional Wisdom
  • Training has focused on creating solar
    specialists
  • Our Recommendations (and Actions...)
  • Focus training on non-specialist technicians
    vendors
  • Use short training courses to reach many
    technicians vendors
  • Include solar training in electrical courses at
    polytechnics
  • Business management is alien to courses in what
    is seen as a technical trade
  • Disseminate information through trade magazines

29
World PV Module Shipments (1985-1998)(in
Megawatts)
Global shipments in 2001 402 MW
San Francisco 40 MW solar package financed by a
100 million revenue bond
30
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31
Solar Subdivisions
Clarum Homes is proud to present Watsonville's
newest community, Cherry Blossom. Framed by the
rolling hills of Watsonville and the Monterey
coastline, Cherry Blossom offers an ideal
location that has easy commuter access, and is
close to schools, shopping and great
recreational areas. The craftsman style two
story homes offer three and four bedrooms with 2
1/2 bathrooms, two car garages and inviting front
porches. Our homes are designed with great rooms,
master suites, energy saving features (i.e. solar
electricity) and environmentally friendly
materials. Don't miss out on the opportunity to
purchase a home at our special pre-grand opening
prices. There are only a few units left in Phase
III and there are no homeowner dues! Model and
Sales Office Open Thursday through Tuesday 12pm -
6pm. Call (831) 724-8494
32
Experience Curve for Compact Fluorescent Lamp
Ballasts
A typical learning curve 20 decrease in costs
for each doubling of total production.
33
Experience Curve for Photovoltaic Modules vs MW
Produced
100
1976
10
2000
/Wp
1
Projected 2020 1 - 1.50/watt
Learning rate 22
0
0
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
cumulative MWp
34
Dramatic Cost Reductions with Use
Learning Drives Down the Cost of Renewables
PV
wind
Learning is dynamically driven by market
opportunity
35
Source DOE, Clean Energy Futures (2000)
36
Federal RD PolicyCan be Effective
From R. Margolis and D. Kammen (1999) Science,
volume 285, pages 690 - 692, 30 July issue.
Available at http//socrates.berkeley.edu/rael/p
apers.html
37
Lack of Federal RD policy leads to lack of
support for energy options
From R. Margolis and D. Kammen (1999) Science,
volume 285, pages 690 - 692, 30 July issue.
Available at http//socrates.berkeley.edu/rael/p
apers.html
38
The Federal Responses So Far
Government Energy RD Budget (billion 1995)
39
Electricity Use of Refrigerators and Freezers in
the US compared to Generation from Nuclear,
Hydro, Renewables and ANWR
800
Nuclear
700
600
500
Billion kWh per year
400
Conventional
150 M Refrig/Freezers
Hydro
300
at 1974 eff
at 2001 eff
Used
ANWR
100 Million Rooftop
_at_10,000
200
PV System _at_ 1kW
Btu/kWh
Existing
Used
Renewables
Saved
100
0
40
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41
Renewable Energy Markets in Developing Countries

The Power of Efficiency Innovation (World
Primary Power or Energy)
Quads/yr
TWa
50
1500
10 billion people _at_ 5 kW 50 TW
? Annual growth in Energy/GDP
40
1200
? 1/yr
Countries are in this range
30
900
? 0/yr
6 billion people _at_ 2 kW 12 TW
? -1/yr
20
600
? -2/yr
300
10
? -3/yr
0
0
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Average, not equitably distributed
Year
42
If we value the environment, we must utilize
renewable energy
Atmospheric CO2 concentration in 1850 265
ppm Atmospheric CO2 concentration in 2000 370 ppm
Advanced coal technologies
kg (carbon)/kWh of Electricity
Carbon/kWh for atmospheric stabilization at 450,
550 ppm
43
If we value the environment, we must utilize
renewable energy
Atmospheric CO2 concentration in 1850 265
ppm Atmospheric CO2 concentration in 2000 370 ppm
Note in Art Rosenfelds slides, his ?, and the
one I indicate here are for Calif. roughly the
same. His ? -1 will, as I indicate here,
decrease this blue bar by 1 each year
Advanced coal technologies
kg (carbon)/kWh of Electricity
Carbon/kWh for atmospheric stabilization at 450,
550 ppm
? -1/yr
44
4,684 MW of Wind Capacity as of Jan. 23, 2003
INTERNATIONAL Germany 12,001 MW Spain 4,820
MW US 4,684 MW
Largest single project WA/OR Stateline wind 300
MW
45
DoE/EIA Studies Put 20 Federal RPS by 2020 at,
or below, BAU Costs
46
1942...
2002...
We have valued vehicle efficiency in the past.
47
1942...
2002...
What have we learned in 60 years?
48
We have decisions to make
A Berkeley street, 2001
  • A real transportation strategy is an important
    part of any clean energy plan
  • For example adopt a minimum, CAFE fleet average
    (e.g. 30 mpg, then ramp up)
  • Efficiency rewards in parking, parking fines
    (why not energy efficient mortgages?)

49
Enabling TechnologiesFuel Cells
Examples
  • Fuel cells are being developed for use in
    electric vehicles, for stationary distributed
    power generation (DG), and for powering
    electronic devices.
  • High Efficiency Systems w/Untapped Potential
    Fuel cell systems today have electrical
    efficiencies of 40-55, but with use of waste
    heat energy, overall efficiencies can reach gt80.
  • Multiple Benefits Fuel cell vehicles can play an
    important role in generating power for buildings,
    while the vehicles are parked.
  • There is about 14 times as much power in the
    vehicle fleet as in all the stationary power
    plants in the U.S.!

PlugPower 5 kW Stationary fuel cell
Toyota RAV-4 Hybrid Battery/ Fuel Cell Vehicle
50
Summary Powerful Partnerships
  • Emerging clean energy markets
  • e.g East African solar, Asian wind, Biomass
  • Largest, fastest growing power sector
  • Technological and financial mainstreaming
  • Following path of energy efficiency
  • Diverse Power Production (support true IPPs)
  • Renewable Portfolio Standard(s)
  • Global Markets
  • Energy/security, carbon, health (clean energy)

51
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52
For more information
  • ERG
  • http//socrates.berkeley.edu/erg
  • Renewable Appropriate Energy Laboratory
  • http//socrates.berkeley.edu/rael
  • http//socrates.berkeley.edu/dkammen

53
Recent Publications by RAEL on Solar Markets in
Developing Countries
  • Duke, R.D., and Kammen, D.M. (1999) "The
    Economics of Energy Market Transformation
    Initiatives," The Energy Journal, 20 (4), 15-64.
  • Jacobson, A., Duke, R., Kammen, D. M., and
    Hankins, M. (2000) Field Performance
    Measurements of Amorphous Silicon Photovoltaic
    Modules in Kenya, Conference Proceedings, ASES,
    Madison, WI, June 16-21, 2000.
  • Duke R., Graham S., Hankins M., Jacobson A.,
    Kammen D., Osawa B., Pulver S., and Walther E.,
    (2000) Field Performance Evaluations of
    Amorphous Silicon (a-Si) Photovoltaic Systems in
    Kenya Methods and Measurements in Support of a
    Sustainable Commercial Solar Energy Industry,
    ESMAP, World Bank Report 2000-005.
  • Duke, R., Jacobson, A., Kammen, D.M. (2002)
    Product Quality in the Kenyan Solar Home Systems
    Market, Energy Policy, 30, 477 499.
  • Copies of papers available at http//socrates.berk
    eley.edu/rael

54
RAEL Articles on the Kenya Solar Market in
Kenyan Publications
  • Jacobson, A., Duke, R., Kammen, D.M. (2000)
    Amorphous Silicon PV Panels Are they a good
    value for the money?, Solarnet, Vol.2, No.2,
    Nairobi, Kenya.
  • Jacobson, A., Duke R., and Kammen D. (2001)
    "Update on the Performance of 14 Watt Phoenix
    Gold solar panels", Solarnet, vol. 3, no.2.
  • Jacobson, Arne (2001) "AJ's Technical Tips -
    Small solar PV systems should have small
    batteries", Solarnet, vol.3, no.2.
  • Jacobson, Arne (2002) "AJ's Technical Tips -
    Designing a Small Solar PV System Part I
    Calculating the Amount of Energy Used by the
    Electrical Loads", Solarnet, vol.3, no.3
  • Jacobson, Arne (2002) "AJ's Technical Tips -
    Designing a Small Solar PV System Part II Sizing
    the Solar Panel and the Battery", Solarnet,
    vol.4, no.1
  • Copies of papers available at http//socrates.berk
    eley.edu/rael

55
Emissions TradingExisting Investments
Mod from from Bürer (2001)
56
Renewable Energy Markets in Developing Countries
57
Addendum Global Climate Change How clean is a
fuel cell car?
  • Gasoline C8H17 On a molar basis 113 g of
    gasoline combusted releases 352 g of CO2
  • Assume CH4 is the primary source for H2
  • CH4 H2O ? CO 3H2
  • CO H2O ? CO2 H2 8 g of H2 release
    44 g of CO2
  • CH4 2H2O ? 4H2 CO2

Gasoline fueled car
Gasoline emits 60 more CO2
cars energy efficiency
Hydrogen fuel cell car
58
Home PV systems installed recently by upcountry
technicians (N 343)
for comparison, 1997 Survey of 410 Systems by
EAA - 91 had TV - 75 had lights - 70 had
radio (note that the 1997 survey included systems
installed by technicians as well as
self-installed systems, while the 2000/20001
survey is for technician installed systems only)
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