Demography of Russia and the Former Soviet Union

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Demography of Russia and the Former Soviet Union

• Lecture 3
• Sociology SOCI 20182

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Course website

• http//course.health-studies.org/

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Basic population concepts

• Population number and population distribution.

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Distribution by Population Number, 1998
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Distribution by Population Density 2000
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Population growth

• Population natural movement population changes
  due to births and deaths as natural processes in
  contrast to mechanical changes due to migration
• Population growth can be expressed in absolute
  numbers.

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Growth of Russian population from 1897 to 1989
(in million)
Red urban population Blue rural population
Upper line - total
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Population in Russia, 1990-2007
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Components of population growth births, deaths
and migration

• Population growth between times T1 and T2 can be
  measured using the following balancing equation
• P2 P1 B D I O, where
• P2 population at time T2
• P1 - population at time T1
• B number of births between T1 and T2
• D number of deaths between T1 and T2
• I number of immigrants between T1 and T2
• O number of out-migrants (emigrants) between T1
  and T2

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Growth of population in three FSU countries
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The concept of demographic rates

• In demography rates typically represent
  occurrence/exposure ratios
• Takes into account the size of population

• Rates are usually measured for specific period of
  time (period rates)

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Growth rates in demography

• Population growth can be expressed using rates.
  Helps to compare countries with different
  population numbers. Rates are measured for
  specific period of time (usually for one calendar
  year)
• Crude Birth rate (CBR) number of live births
  per 100,000 population during year X
• Crude Death rate (CDR) - number of deaths per
  100,000 population during year X
• Rate of natural increase CBR - CDR
• Rate of total increase CBR CDR CMR
• CMR crude migration rate per 100,000 CRIM -
  CROM
• CRIM crude rate of In-migration CROM crude
  rate of Out-migration. Both measured per 100,000
  population.
• Population decline or depopulation occurs
  when rate of total population increase becomes
  negative (population decrease)

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Depopulation in Russia or the Russian cross
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Depopulation of Russian regionsNatural increase
per 1000, 2003
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Administrative division in RussiaTypes of regions

• Oblast the most common type
• Kray similar to oblast
• National republic higher level of autonomy
• National okrug part of oblast, kray or national
  republic
• Moscow and St. Petersburg are counted separately
  by state statistics

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New type of administrative division federal
okrug
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Population growth rateDirect estimation
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Annual population growth rate in percent, as
listed in the CIA World Factbook (2006 estimate)
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FSU countries experiencing population decline in
2006-2007

• Belarus
• Estonia
• Latvia
• Lithuania
• Moldova
• Russia
• Ukraine

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Percent growth in the FSU countries, 1999
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Population structure

• Age and sex are the main components of population
  structure
• Demographers commonly use population pyramids to
  describe both age and sex distributions of
  populations. Youthful populations are
  represented by pyramids with a broad base of
  young children and a narrow apex of older people,
  and older populations are characterized by more
  uniform numbers of people in the age categories.

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Population pyramid Russia, 2002
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Types of population pyramids
Young growing population
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Types of population pyramids
Aging population structure
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Russia in 1989 and 2002
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Other commonly used characteristics of population

• Residence (urban or rural)
• Education
• Marital status (never married, married, widowed,
  divorced)
• Race or ethnicity
• Citizenship

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Percent urban population, 2000
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Distribution by education status, Russia from
1959 to 2002
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Education system in Russia

• Higher professional more than 10 years of
  education (usually 15) corresponds to college
  degree in the United States
• Secondary vocational 8 years of school two
  years of professional education
• Secondary general 10 years of school
• Basic general 8 years of school
• Primary general 4 years of school

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Distribution by marital status per 1000
population 16 years Russia from 1989 to 2002
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Distribution by ethnicity, Russia 2002
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Nationalities of the Soviet Union Police leaflet
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Three the most common nationalities in Russia
Russian
Ukrainian Tatar
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Distribution by citizenshipRussia 2002
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Changes in Russian population between 1989 and
2002 censuses

• Population decline by 1,855,000 or 1.5. The
  most rapid decline is observed during the last 10
  years. From 1993 to 2006 population of Russia
  decreased by 4.5. But population increase in
  Central and Southern federal okrugs from 1989 to
  2002. However, after 1993 negative natural
  increase (decline) in all federal okrugs.
• Non-uniform distribution of population increased.
• Stagnation of urbanization (deurbanization?)

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Synthetic cohorts in demography

• A hypothetical cohort of persons that is
  represented when data for a year or other brief
  period are treated as though they relate to a
  single cohort.
• For example, the total fertility rate, which
  summarizes the age-specific birth rates for a
  population of women in a given year, may be
  assumed to represent the average total children
  born per woman for a synthetic cohort of women
  that passed through life bearing children at the
  given rates.
• Synthetic or hypothetical cohorts are based on
  cross-sectional distributions
• Demographic measures based on hypothetical
  cohorts are called period measures (e.g., period
  life tables)

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Reading

• Anderson, B. 2002. "Russia faces depopulation?
  Dynamics of population decline," Population and
  Environment 23(5) 437-64.