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Perspectives of clean coal technologies in Poland

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NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security Krak w 5-6 July 2007. Model of power generation - 1 ... 2 - Energy Supply Security Krak w 5-6 July 2007. Results ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Perspectives of clean coal technologies in Poland


1
Perspectives of clean coal technologies in Poland
  • Wojciech Suwala
  • AGH-University of Science and Technology
  • Faculty of Fuels and Energy

2
Presentation plan
  • Basic facts on Polish energy system
  • Model of power generation
  • Power generation technologies 2002-2020
  • Decomposition of CO2 emissions reduction
  • Conclusions

3
Basic facts on Polish energy system
  • 70 of TPES from coal
  • 94 of electricity and heat generated form hard
    coal and lignite

4
Basic facts on Polish energy system- challenges
  • LCP directive - derogations
  • EU accession treaty country limits
  • ETS
  • 280 Mt CO2 required
  • 208 Mt CO2 assigned
  • Renewables obligation

5
Model of power generation - 1
  • Bottom-up model
  • Emissions constraints (SO2, NOx, PM)
  • Carbon tax to mitigate CO2 emissions
  • 100 coal grades
  • Variable demands

6
Model of power generation -2
  • Partial equilibrium
  • Objective function
  • consumers producers surplus ? MAX
  • Time horizon 2002-2020
  • Linear programming GAMS/CPLEX

7
Model of power generationscenarios 1
  • SO2, NOx, PM
  • emissions reduction as in EU Accession Treaty for
    the whole country (bubble)

8
Model of power generationscenarios 2
  • Renewables obligation
  • 9 of electricity production from 2010
  • CO2 - carbon tax 0 - 30 /t

9
Resultstechnologies mix, carbon tax 0 /t CO2
10
Results technologies mix, carbon tax 25 /t CO2
11
Results technologies mix, 2020
12
Results technologies mix, 2020
13
Technologies in 2020, carbon tax 25 /t CO2
14
Technologies in 2020, carbon tax 25 /t CO2
Existing hard coal CHP public plants - life
extension 47
15
Technologies in 2020, carbon tax 25 /t CO2
New nuclear 15
16
Technologies in 2020, carbon tax 25 /t CO2
9
3
8
3
3
7
5
17
Results CO2 emissions for carbon tax 0 30 /t
CO2
18
Decomposition principleShapley/Sun method
ZX1X2 ? Z(X1) ?X1X201/2 ?X1 ?X2 ? Z(X2)
?X2X101/2 ?X1 ?X2
X1
?X1
X10
?X2
X2
X20
19
Decomposition identity
20
Decomposition identity
  • process factor related to
  • physical / chemical properties of the
    technologies
  • fuel quality adjustment

21
Decomposition identity
fuel factor related to emissions properties of
fuels used
22
Decomposition identity
efficiency factor related to amount of primary
energy used to satisfy demand
23
Decomposition identity
demand factor
24
Emissions decomposition
effect ? factor
25
CO2 emissions reduction effects
contributioncarbon tax 10 /t CO2
26
CO2 emissions reduction effects contribution
carbon tax 25 /t CO2
27
CO2 emissions reduction effects contribution
carbon tax 30 /t CO2
28
Conclusions 1/2
  • Coal technologies should have still a large share
    in energy supply for Poland
  • Traditional coal technologies need to be replaced
    by clean coal technologies
  • Increase of demand could be balanced by renewable
    and nuclear energy

29
Conclusions 2/2
  • Major factors which in longer term contribute to
    CO2 emissions reduction are fuels switch and
    efficiency increase, the latter enhances the role
    of clean coal technologies
  • Demand decreases contribute to emissions
    reduction basically in short term

30
Thank you for your attention
31
Reversed demand curve
P
PR Reference price equal for all years QR
Reference demand - forecasts
PR
QR
Q
32
Unit cost of energy /PJ
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