Title: Participation: Mark DeMaria NESDIS, John Knaff CSIRACSU, Buck Sampson NRLJTWC, Michelle Mainelli NHC
1Participation Mark DeMaria (NESDIS), John Knaff
(CSIRA/CSU), Buck Sampson (NRL/JTWC), Michelle
Mainelli (NHC), Isaac Ginis (URI), Lynn Shan
(RSMAS). Work supported by NOAA Research to
Operations Program (Stan Wilson)
2Tropical Cyclones
3Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential
4Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential
5Impact of NHC/OHC Assimilation into GFDL Ocean
Model
6Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential
- Fields compare well on global scale
- Comparison with in situ data shows roughly
comparable errors
7Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential
NCEP GODAS
AOML ASTEP
- GODAS and AOMLTCHP just before Hurricane Katrina
(Aug 2005) - The Gulf warm core eddy is missing in the GODAS
fields - Lack of mesoscale features in GODAS limits its
utility for TC intensity forecasts
8RSM SH and EKE HYCOM Performance
9Intensity Forecast Model Comparison
10Impact of TCHP Assimilation into SHIPS and STIPS
models
Atlantic Sample (DT) 3072 SHIPS Model
Forecasts 1995-2006 West Pacific Sample (RT)
311 STIPS Model Forecasts 2006
11Impact of NHC OHC Assimilation into SHIPS
Atlantic model
Improvements in Operational SHIPS Forecasts from
OHC for all Recent Cat 5 Hurricanes
12NOAA-ASTEP Altimetry-derived Synthetic
TEmperature Profiles
13Altimetry-derived Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential
May 2006 conditions
May 2007 conditions
14SWIO Tropical Cyclone Hudah (2000)
Goni et al, 2007
15SWIO Tropical Cyclone Hudah (2000)
0.3C/day cooling 0.15/day warming Heat content
mixed layer ! heat content upper layer
Goni et al, 2007
16Current Conditions
17Altimetry Products www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/satprod
18How well the ocean observing system is supporting
this work ? Altimetry excellently In-situ
observations good in some areas, bad in others
(Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico) Recommend
ations Support the continuation of high
precision altimetry missions resolve
mesoscale Improve the observing system for
tropical cyclone intensification studies
19Thank you