Climate Change and its Implications for West Coast Fisheries and Their Management - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Loading...

PPT – Climate Change and its Implications for West Coast Fisheries and Their Management PowerPoint presentation | free to download - id: 1f28e7-ZDc1Z



Loading


The Adobe Flash plugin is needed to view this content

Get the plugin now

View by Category
About This Presentation
Title:

Climate Change and its Implications for West Coast Fisheries and Their Management

Description:

Climate Change and its Implications for West Coast Fisheries and Their Management – PowerPoint PPT presentation

Number of Views:121
Avg rating:3.0/5.0
Slides: 94
Provided by: bpe68
Learn more at: http://www.psmfc.org
Category:

less

Write a Comment
User Comments (0)
Transcript and Presenter's Notes

Title: Climate Change and its Implications for West Coast Fisheries and Their Management


1
Climate Change and its Implications for West
Coast Fisheries and Their Management
Frank Schwing NOAA Fisheries Southwest Fisheries
Science Center/ Environmental Research
Division Pacific Grove CA
2
A Perfect Storm for Climate Fisheries
  • Demand for seafood, economical and efficient
    fisheries
  • Conservation and recovery programs, Ecosystem
    Approaches to Management
  • Recognition of changing ecosystems, better
    understanding of fish-environment links
  • Reality of climate change

Hurricane Lisa, off Baja, 9/12/97
3
From Verification to Consequences
  • With consensus on global climate change, the
    national priority is evolving toward determining
    ecosystem impacts, and mitigation and adaptation
  • We have invested greatly in describing and
    understanding mechanisms of physical climate
    change, but much less on their regional impacts
    on living marine resources
  • We have invested greatly in developing stock
    assessment methods and management plans, but need
    to relate climate change to trends in populations
  • We have invested greatly in immediate fishing
    success, but must consider long-term social and
    economic impacts of future climate

4
Outline
  • Past global climate variability
  • IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4), recent research
  • Future climate projections and impacts
  • AR4, climate and ecosystem models
  • Ecological impacts of climate change along the
    west coast
  • Solutions for mitigating and adapting to
    future climate change

5
Ecosystem Response to Environmental Variability
6
Anthropogenic Influences on Ecosystems
7
Climate Variability and Ecosystems Sequence of
Critical Questions
  • What are the key environmental drivers that shape
    ecosystem structure and productivity?
  • How are these drivers influenced by climate
    events and future climate scenarios?
  • How do marine ecosystems respond to climate
    variability?
  • What are the primary ecological consequences of
    concern to our nations economy, culture, and
    stewardship?

8
Past Climate Variability - Global and North
Pacific
9
IPCC Climate Assessment Report 4 (AR4)
10
The Greenhouse Effect
11
Greenhouse Gas Concentration and Temperature
12
Human Contribution to Greenhouse Gases
13
Global Temperature Trend
14
Human Contribution to Global Warming
15
Present Temperature Warmest in 1000 yrs
16
Global Warming Spatial Patterns
17
Ocean Heat Content
18
Global Sea Level Rise
19
Sea Ice
20
Glacier Mass
21
Earlier California Seasonal Snowmelt and Runoff
22
Coastal Ocean Stratification
  • Offshore
  • strength ? 7
  • depth ? 10 (7 m)
  • temp ? 1.3C
  • heat ? 7
  • Coast
  • strength ? 44
  • depth ? 82 (18 m)
  • temp ? 0.8C
  • heat ? 7

Palacios et al. (2004)
23
Changes in CA Current Source Water
24
Climate Projections for the 21st Century
25
(No Transcript)
26
(No Transcript)
27
SF Bay - 1m Sea Level Rise Projection
28
Global Precipitation Projections
29
Global Streamflow Projections
30
Ecological Impacts of Climate Variability
31
Interannual Variability Affects Catch
TOTAL Monterey So Cal
El Niño (images from NASA)
Market squid Annual catch rates, 1981-2005
32
Climate shifts perturb fisheries and have
socio-economic impacts
Late 1960s
Late 1970s
1980s
Bottom trawl surveys, Pavlov Bay, AK
(from Anderson and Piatt, 1999)
33
Climate shifts perturb fisheries and have
socio-economic impacts
Late 1960s
Late 1970s
1980s
Bottom trawl surveys, Pavlov Bay, AK
(from Anderson and Piatt, 1999)
34
Climate shifts perturb fisheries and have
socio-economic impacts
Late 1960s
Late 1970s
1980s
Bottom trawl surveys, Pavlov Bay, AK
(from Anderson and Piatt, 1999)
35
Interdecadal climate variability (regime
shifts) changes ecosystem structure and
productivity
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
warm phase
cool phase
(from Peterson and Schwing, 2003)
(from Nathan Mantua, U. Washington)
36
CA Sardine-Anchovy Cycles
Natural decadal cycles for Two Millenia in So. CA
Bight
37
21st century anthropogenic warming will overcome
natural regime shift variability
IPCC projected (2040-2049) SST relative to
1980-1999
Year of anthropogenic dominance
Sea surface temperatures 2F warmer by 2050
West coast cool regimes disappear in 30-50 years
(from Overland and Wang, 2007)
38
California Marine Populations Shifting Northward
(from Union of Concerned Scientists)
39
Warmer Climate Favors Southern Intertidal Species
(from Berry et al., 1995)
40
Lower Production in 2005 2006 due to Weak
Springtime Upwelling
(from David Foley, NOAA NESDIS)
41
2005-2006 - worst years on record for Farallon
Island auklets (42 km west of San Francisco)
young/breeding-pair
Nests abandoned due to delayed upwelling
From Sydeman and Bradley, PRBO
42
Future Upwelling Primary Productivity Will be
Delayed
Upwelling Index- 45N,125W
Peak coastal upwelling - and production - occurs
later in summer under higher CO2
(from Jim Overland, NOAA PMEL)
43
CO2 and Ocean Acidification
Ocean Acidification That other CO2 problem
pH
CO32-
CO2(aq)
Estimated aragonite saturation states of the
surface ocean for the years 1765, 1995, 2040, and
2100 (Feely et al., submitted), based on the
modeling results of Orr et al. (2005) and a
business-as-usual CO2 emissions scenario.
Wolf-Gladrow et al., 1999
As ocean calcium carbonate saturation state
decreases, a concomitant reduction in
calcification rates by marine organisms can
occur. - reduced extension rates - weaker
skeletons/shells
44
Fishery Impacts of Ocean Acidification
10 decrease in pteropod production leads to 20
drop in pink salmon body weight
45
Biodiversity
  • 20-30 of all species, higher risk of extinction

46
Climate Change Projected to Impact California
Current Ecosystem
Projected changes - 21st century
Examples of ecological impacts
  • Warmer summer temperatures greater ocean
    stratification, weaker upwelling (very likely)
  • Warmer wetter winters greater freshwater
    inflow, coastal flooding (very likely)
  • Higher coastal sea level (very likely)
  • More extreme events stronger storms, El Nino,
    hurricanes (likely)
  • Delayed seasonal cycle delayed upwelling (likely)
  • Northward species shifts
  • Lower productivity food
  • Exotic species introduced
  • Reduced coastal water quality
  • Toxic blooms
  • Human health hazards
  • Intertidal species displaced
  • Wetlands reduced
  • Greater coastal erosion
  • Fisheries reduced displaced
  • Warm-water fisheries available
  • Delayed spring bloom
  • Reproduction, migration impacted

47
Solutions
48
USCCSP
  • USCCSP integrates Federal research on climate
    change to
  • improve understanding of uncertainties in climate
    science,
  • expand global observing systems,
  • develop science-based resources to support
    policymaking and resource management,
  • communicate findings among scientific and
    stakeholder communities.
  • Our Changing Planet
  • annual summary of accomplishments and plans
  • U.S. Climate Change Research Initiative
  • improve the integration of scientific knowledge,
    including measures of uncertainty, into effective
    decision-support systems.

49
PaCOOS
  • Pacific Coast Ocean Observing System (PaCOOS)
  • Providing ocean information for the sustained
    use of the California Current Large Marine
    Ecosystem under a changing climate
  • Federal, state, academic, IOOS RAs
  • Ocean observing, models, data management

50
Integrated Ecosystem Assessments
  • An IEA is a dynamic, decision-support tool for
    management of living marine resources
  • An IEA
  • incorporates multiple indicators of the
    environment and ecosystem, including human
    factors
  • is geographically specific
  • defines state of ecosystem and its stressors
  • establishes target levels and thresholds for
    important ecosystem components
  • evaluates the impacts of management options and
    risks of not attaining target ecosystem states

51
  • Summary and Conclusions
  • The California Current (US west coast) Marine
    Ecosystem is shaped by physical processes with
    time scales of days to decades
  • Climate variability leads to ecological
    variability
  • Modulation by global climate change may include
  • delayed spring transition and stronger
    late-season upwelling
  • northward shift, favorable for warm-water
    species
  • increased variability expected with global
    warming
  • fishery winners and losers
  • more coastal stress
  • Timing is critical, e.g. rockfish recruitment,
    salmon ocean entry, seabird breeding

52
  • Mitigation and Adaptation is Necessary
  • Mitigate global climate change by avoiding other
    ecological stressors, e.g. overfishing, coastal
    pollution
  • Management decisions must adapt to climate
    variability in marine ecosystems
  • Industry technology and infrastructure must adapt
    to mitigate social and economic impacts

53
Extra Slides
54
(No Transcript)
55
Changing Paradigms for Fisheries Management
  • Old paradigm single- and mixed-population
    assessments
  • New assessments more focused on species
    interactions - EAM
  • Old paradigm single-species rebuilding
  • New rebuilding plans in ecosystem context
  • Old paradigm simplistic view of ocean
    variability
  • New climate variability affects ocean conditions
    and ecosystem structure and productivity on
    multiple scales
  • Old paradigm future climate change is uncertain
  • New global climate change is quantifiable, now
    focus on impacts and mitigation

56
PRIORITY ACTIVITIES
  • GOAL Research to understand, quantify, and
    forecast impacts of climate variability on marine
    populations and ecosystem components.
  • OVERARCHING ACTIVITY Use observations, models
    and indicators to assess the impacts of climate
    on marine ecosystems and resources and provide
    scientific information for management.
  • ecological observations to detect the impacts of
    climate change on marine ecosystems,.
  • climate-forced bio-physical models to aid in
    resource management.
  • ecological indicators to document ecosystem
    impacts of climate variability.
  • regular assessments of ecosystem status and
    tendency.
  • climate information integrated into fisheries
    management plans and decisions.

57
Components of an IEA
  • Assessment of ecosystem baseline conditions
    (State)
  • Assessment of stressors on the ecosystem
    (Drivers, Pressures)
  • Prediction of the ecosystem status under
    different management strategies to meet target
    states (including no change)
  • Evaluation of the risks and successes of
    management actions (update states relative to
    targets and thresholds)

58
Pacific Ocean SST Trends
Global SST mode
CCS
NPac
GOA
  • Warming with decadal fluctuations
  • Matches global SST trend
  • Reduced warming coastal North America
  • Coast leads NPac

NPac
Global Surface Temperature
59
Pacific Ocean SST Trends
Global warming mode
  • NPac, Arctic equatorial trends correspond
  • Accelerated warming in Bering, SoCA Bight
  • Coastal cooling

Sea Ice
Nino3
Sea Ice
NPac
60
             
             

 
 
 
 
Integrated and multi-national efforts needed to
observe different sub-ecosystem types, and to
monitor climate change and its ecological
impacts.
61
Modeling to Drive the Process and Deliver Products
  • Incorporate environmental variability and climate
    projections into population assessments
  • Ecosystem models need fish population components
  • Couple physical and biological models
  • Link climate models
  • Mechanistic and prognostic models
  • Create user-relevant products
  • Match scales of climate and
  • ecosystem models
  • Nested models in space and time
  • Use DMAC delivery tools
  • End Result Fully integrated model systems that
    provide information for effective monitoring and
    management of ecosystems and their resources in
    light of climate variability.

62
Ecological Indicators for use in Management
  • develop operational leading ecological indicators
    from observations and models
  • oceanographic/environmental/fishery
  • incorporate all relevant ecosystem information
    and prioritize the development of indicators
  • evaluate the relationships between pressure and
    status indicators using appropriate research and
    models
  • detect climate change in stock productivity and
    shifts in ecosystem structure
  • incorporation of environmental variability into
    stock assessment or management related problems
  • Fisheries and the Environment (FATE) program has
    NOAA lead
  • End Result A limited set of indicators that
    document and quantify the status and tendency of
    populations and their environment, to improve
    fishery stock assessments.

63
Drivers and Building Blocks
  • legislative mandates
  • MSFCMA, MMPA, ESA
  • agency priorities
  • AGM, NOAA SP, CCSP
  • national and international reports
  • Pew, COP, IPCC, EOS
  • public pressure
  • existing programs
  • Climate, Ecosystem Goals, IEA Priority Area
  • agency-supported surveys

64
GOALS
  • predict probable consequences of climate change
    on ecological systems and their living resources
  • deliver knowledge and tools needed to
    incorporate climate variability into resource
    management decision process
  • optimize use and stewardship of marine
    ecosystems in the face of changing climate

65
Goals and Benefits of Research
  • Provide scientific support for coastal resource
    management (assessment activities, e.g., stock
    assessments)
  • Implement ecosystem approaches to management
    that consider multiple influences and outcomes
  • Communicate to managers, policy makers and the
    public, the current state of marine ecosystems,
    pressures they face, and potential impacts of
    management options
  • Synthesize knowledge about marine ecosystems in
    relation
  • to human activities, recognize gaps, and improve
    understanding.

66
Human Contribution to Greenhouse Gases
67
Water Vapor
68
Precipitation
69
Human Contribution to Greenhouse Gases
70
(No Transcript)
71
Northeast Pacific regime anomalies
72
Climate Information and Services
  • What type of Climate Change information and
    services are NMFS and its customers asking for?
  • Scalable environmental data, long time series
  • Expert information
  • IPCC projections and model output
  • Mechanisms (rather than correlations) linking
    climate and ecosystem response
  • Indices for improved operational assessments and
    models
  • More data that are relevant to climate change
    issues
  • Physical models for coupling to biological models

73
Current Handling of Climate Issues
  • How does NMFS currently handle the issue of
    Climate Change?
  • Focus on climate-sensitive sentinel species,
    regions, and problems
  • RD on mechanisms linking environmental and
    ecological variability
  • Characterize and understand natural climate
    variability, to isolate anthropogenic impacts and
    project future conditions
  • use retrospective analyses, models
  • must also consider non-climate factors of
    fishing, water quality, etc.
  • Improve indices, models and assessments by
    incorporating environmental and climate
    information
  • Begin process of using future climate projections
    for future ecological scenarios and sensitivity
  • Resource limited

74
NOAA Strategic Plan Performance Objectives
  • Understand and predict the consequences of
    climate variability and change on marine
    ecosystems (Climate Goal)
  • Increase number of fish stocks managed at
    sustainable levels (Ecosystem Goal)

75
RESEARCH DECISION LOOP
  • ecological observations
  • climate-forced bio-physical models
  • ecological indicators
  • regular assessments
  • planning and decision information
  • CONVERGENT
  • PROCESS

DMAC
Observations Models
Indicators
Information
Assessments
Decisions
76
RESEARCH DECISION LOOP
CLIMATE CHANGE
DMAC
Observations Models
Indicators
Information
Assessments
  • understand climate impacts
  • respond to change
  • long-term projections
  • ITERATIVE PROCESS

Decisions
77
PRIORITY RESEARCH ACTIVITIES
  • GOAL Research to understand, quantify, and
    forecast impacts of climate variability on marine
    populations and ecosystem components.
  • OVERARCHING ACTIVITY Use ecosystem
    observations, models and indicators to assess the
    impacts of climate on marine ecosystems and
    living marine resources and provide scientific
    information for management.
  • ecological observations to detect the impacts of
    climate variability and climate change on marine
    ecosystems, at local and regional scales.
  • climate-forced bio-physical models to aid in
    management of living marine resources.
  • ecological indicators which document the impacts
    of climate variability on marine ecosystems.
  • regular assessments of ecosystem status and
    tendency for management and decision-making
  • climate information integrated into fisheries
    management plans and decisions.

78
Observations to Monitor Climate and Ecological
Impacts
  • Maintain existing survey observing programs
  • Core variables, climate sentinel species
  • Coordinate and leverage
  • Gap analyses (with models)
  • New technologies (satellites, bio-loggers)
  • Data Management and Communications provides
    dividend on monitoring investments
  • Ensures standards and interoperability for data
    sets
  • End result Time series of key components of an
    ecosystem, from nutrients to whales, and the
    physical variables that control their dynamics.

79
Modeling to Drive the Process and Deliver Products
  • Incorporate environmental variability and climate
    projections into population assessments
  • Ecosystem models need fish population components
  • Couple physical and biological models
  • Link climate models
  • Mechanistic and prognostic models
  • Create user-relevant products
  • Match scales of climate and
  • ecosystem models
  • Nested models in space and time
  • Use DMAC delivery tools
  • End Result Fully integrated model systems that
    provide information for effective monitoring and
    management of ecosystems and their resources in
    light of climate variability.

80
Holistic Ecosystem Modeling
Climate Models
Food Web Models
Nested Physical Models
Coupled Ecosystem Models
Stock Assessment Models
81
Ecological Indicators for use in Management
  • develop operational leading ecological indicators
    from observations and models
  • oceanographic/environmental/fishery
  • incorporate all relevant ecosystem information
    and prioritize the development of indicators
  • evaluate the relationships between pressure and
    status indicators using appropriate research and
    models
  • detect climate change in stock productivity and
    shifts in ecosystem structure
  • incorporation of environmental variability into
    stock assessment or management related problems
  • Fisheries and the Environment (FATE) program has
    NOAA lead
  • End Result A limited set of indicators that
    document and quantify the status and tendency of
    populations and their environment, to improve
    fishery stock assessments.

82
Desirable Characteristics of Ecosystem Indicators
  • easy to understand
  • responsive to manageable human activities
  • responses linked in time to management action
  • easily and accurately measured
  • low responsiveness to other factors (e.g.,
    multiple factors)
  • measurable over large portion of area
  • existing data to provide historic dynamics to
    inform the selection of targets and thresholds

Source ICES Working Group on Ecosystem Effects
of Fishing
83
Ecosystem Assessments
  • Assessments address
  • Status of the topic being considered
  • Causes and consequences of the status
  • Forecast of future status with and without
    management action
  • Costs and benefits of possible management actions
  • Evaluation of past management actions
  • End Result Document and quantify ecosystem
    status and tendency, and the impacts of past and
    future climate
  • Evolve from a put a staple through it document,
    to a dynamic web-based Integrated Ecosystem
    Assessment (IEA)

84
Components of an IEA
  • Assessment of ecosystem baseline conditions
    (State)
  • Assessment of stressors on the ecosystem
    (Drivers, Pressures)
  • Prediction of the ecosystem status under
    different management strategies to meet target
    states (including no change)
  • Evaluation of the risks and successes of
    management actions (update states relative to
    targets and thresholds)
  • Ecosystem status reports are not IEAs
  • IEA is a process, a tool, and a product

85
NEAR-TERM PRIORITIES 1-3 years
  • Regional demonstration projects.
  • Maintain core observation activities and data
    bases (include gap analysis and DMAC with
    standards).
  • Develop and validate climate-forced bio-physical
    models.
  • Develop and test ecological indicators that
    document the state of, and impacts of climate
    variability on, marine ecosystems.
  • Generate regional IEAs and make them web-based
    and dynamic.
  • Increased number of instances where climate
    information is integrated into fisheries
    management plans.

86
Ecosystem changes in the California Current
associated with Climate Shifts
  • Positive PDO
  • Upwelling weak water warm
  • Zooplankton species dominants are small warm
    water species
  • Euphausiids collapse
  • Salmon survival declines
  • Small pelagic fish stocks collapse (anchovy,
    smelt)
  • Whiting migrate farther north into Canadian
    waters
  • Warm water predators enter coastal waters
    (mackerels, sharks)
  • Negative PDO
  • Upwelling strong water cold
  • Zooplankton species dominants are large cold
    water species from the Sub-Arctic Pacific
  • Euphausiids incr. in numbers
  • Salmon survival incr, 5-10 X
  • Small pelagics boom cycle
  • Whiting migrate only to 45 N
  • Coastal waters predator-free

87
Climate Anomaly Patterns SST colors
SLP contours Wind stress arrows
Warm
Warm phase
Cool phase
Cool
Basin-wide atmospheric oceanic variability at
interannual to decadal scales
(from Mantua et al., 1997)
88
Long time series correlate repeated episodes of
physical ecosystem variability Coupled
variability across food web Mechanistic insight
CCS zooplankton volume
OR coho survival
Northern copepods
(from Peterson and Schwing, 2003)
89
Biological Features Processes
(Mesoscale)
Physical Features Processes
90
Physical Climate Models
Biological Features Processes
Scale Mismatch
Key Ecosystem Processes
(Mesoscale)
Physical Features Processes
91
Ocean Heat Content
92
Human Contribution to Greenhouse Gases
93
(No Transcript)
About PowerShow.com