Projections%20of%20greenhouse%20gas%20emissions%20from%20agriculture:%20an%20Irish%20example

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Projections of greenhouse gas emissions from
agriculturean Irish example

• Trevor Donnellan

FAPRI-Ireland Partnership Rural Economy Research
Centre, Teagasc HQ, Dublin 4.
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Outline

• Introduction
• FAPRI-Ireland explained
• Agriculture Commodity Models Methodology
• Baseline Scenarios Agriculture Projections
• Derivation of GHG projections
• Some sample results for Ireland of GHG emissions
  from agriculture

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FAPRI-Ireland Partnership

• Consortium founded in 1997
• Teagasc (Irish Agriculture and Food Development
  Authority)
• Food and Policy Research Institute (FAPRI)
  (Missouri, USA)
• National Universities of Ireland
• Partner project in Northern Ireland

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FAPRI-Ireland PartnershipAgri-food projections
for Irish Agriculture

• Economic models of agricultural sectors
• Commodity sub-models combined to form model of
  Irish agricultural sector
• Dynamic partial equilibrium econometric model
• Close to 20 commodities
• Baseline and Scenario projections of agricultural
  activity to a 10 year horizon

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FAPRI-Ireland Partnership Agri-food projections
for Irish Agriculture

• Agricultural activity projections can be used to
  project agricultures GHG contribution
• Under Baseline of no further policy change
• Under Scenario of some policy change, e.g. the EC
  Luxembourg Agreement, WTO reform

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Methodology
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Methodology

• Historical data collected
• Equations specified (Y ? ?1X1 ?2X2)
• Equations estimated
• Models assembled in spreadsheets
• System solved
• Projections generated
• National expert review

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Commodity model inter linkages
Sheep Output Values
Beef Output Values
Milk Output Values
Pig Output Values
Cereals
Dairy
Poultry Output Values
Dairy Meal Price
Cereal Prices, Production, Value Hectares
Dairy Cow Numbers
Dairy Cow Numbers
Poultry Prices
Poultry Numbers
Beef
Inputs
Cattle Feed Price
Poultry Meal Prices
Cattle Numbers
Dairy Cow Numbers
Beef Cow Numbers
Pig Numbers
Poultry
Pig Meal Price
Sheep
Pigs
Cattle Feed Price
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Dairy model
Liquid Consumption
Milk Fed
to Livestock
Liquid Milk
Liquid
Milk Price
On Farm
Butter
Domestic Sales
Human Use
SMP
Manufacturing
Intervention
Milk
Casein
Manufacturing
Exports
Cream
Milk Price
Milk Delivered
Cheese
Domestic Sales
Milk Output
WMP
Milk Output per Cow
No. Dairy Cows
Choc
. Crumb
Total Milk
Production
Misc
. Prods.
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How we do the Policy Analysis?

• Develop a Baseline
• Current Policies Remain In Place
• International Agreements Hold
• No New Policies
• Contrast it with an alternative Scenario
• Using different policy assumptions
• Difference between the two is the policys effect

No New Policy Assumptions
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Activity data projections

• Macroeconomic conditions
• Exchange rates, economic growth, inflation
• Obtained from Macro policy models
• Policy conditions
• EU policy reform or proposals from other sources
• Market conditions
• Based on published data from official and
  commercial sources
• Events in other agriculture sectors
• The impact which events in one ag sector can have
  on another is included

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Projections

• 10 year horizon
• Baseline
• Current policy remains in place
• Current international agreements in place
• No new policy
• Scenario
• Alternative policy
• Method of differences

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Issues we have looked at

• Previous Analyses
• Analysis of the Implications of Quota removal
• Commission Agenda 2000 Proposals (December 1998)
• the Final Berlin Agenda 2000 Agreement (May
  1999)
• the London Club Agenda 2000 Dairy Alternative
  (Sept 1999)
• the impact of Exchange Movements on Farm Income
  (March 2000)
• the impact of a reduction or elimination of
  Export Subsidies (April 2001)
• the impact of reform of the EU extensification
  regime (April 2002)
• CAP reform Mid Term Review proposals (May 2003)
• Luxembourg Agreement CAP reform (Oct 2003)

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MTR/WTO Scenario Assumptions

• Baseline of May 2003
• MTR implemented as per June 2003
• Dairy reform
• With 3 decoupling options analysed
• WTO reform as per EU modalities (Jan 2003)
• 36 reduction in tariffs
• 45 reduction in export subsidy outlays
• 55 reduction in AMS
• OTMS gradually phased out (as in Baseline)
• phased return of OTMS beef (2004 to 2006)

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Example - Beef Results Ireland

• Decoupling changes returns to suckler cow farming
• Suckler cow herd declines
• Reduces size of beef herd
• Leads to lower emissions levels

Irish Suckler Cows
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Sample Output change in animal no.
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Ireland results to dateGreenhouse gas emissions
from agriculture

• 2002
• Baseline projections 2002
• Extensification scenario
• Decoupling scenario
• 2003
• Baseline projections 2003
• CAP Reform Mid Term review scenario
• CAP Reform Luxembourg Agreement/WTO scenarios

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GHG Emissions from Agriculture
October 2003 Analysis
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Conclusions

• Agricultural policy Models
• can project GHG emission levels
• under Baseline and policy change scenarios
• Activity projections
• allow conversion to GHG emissions projections
• based on best scientific information available
• Allow evaluation of the impact of agricultural
  policy changes on GHG emissions into the future

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Thank You

• www.tnet.teagasc.ie/fapri

Full report is available on our website at