Conflict Management in the South Caucasus

1
Conflict Management in the South Caucasus
2
Background of the states

• Since beginning of XIX c. South Caucasus became
  part of Russian Empire
• 1918 -1921 they Got a history of a short
  independent statehood which fall under Russian
  RED Army
• 1922-1991 Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan
  (region called South Caucasus) were incorporated
  into the Soviet Union as SU Republics
• 1991 all three republics acquired their
  independence

3
Short background

• The first Russo-Iranian war (1804-1813) and
  Second Russo-Iranian War (1826-1828). Azerbaijan
  is geographically divided between Russia and
  Persia
• Russia support Armenians in Osman Empire and
  encourage them to migrate to Caucasus where the
  majority was Muslim.
• 560,000 Armenians were settled in Azerbaijan
  between 1828 and 1920 by Russian Empire from
  Ottoman Empire (Turkey) and Persian Impire (Iran)
• The Map of Great Armenia of 363-387

4
What meant Status of Autonomy of
Nagorno-Karabakh Autonom. Oblast?

• The population of the NKAO, (1989) was 187,000,
  consisting of -------
• - 137,200 Armenians, or 73.4
• - 47,400 Azerbaijanis, or 25.3
• - 2,400 of Russianas and muslim Kurds, or
  1.3
• The Soviet of People's Deputies of the NKAO - the
  organ of authority which took decisions on all
  local matters and participated in supreme
  Councile of the in the supreme Councile of
  Azerbaijan SSR by 12 deputes
• All organs of government administration, the
  educational and cultural institutions were in the
  Armenian language along with Russian and
  Azerbaijan.
• Nagorno-Karabakh region developed faster than
  Azerbaijan as a whole
• - in 1970 - 1986 industrial output of the
  Republic was 3,
• - for the NKAO was 3.3 annual growth rates
  here were above 8.3 per cent). Capital investment
  rose by a factor of 3.1 in the period from 1970
  to 1986 in the Region, and by a factor of 2.5 in
  the Republic.

5
Some chronology

• In 1945, the First Secretary of the Central
  Committee of the Communist Party of Armenia,
  submited proposal to Moscow to incorporate the
  territory of the Nagorno-Garabagh Autonomous
  Region into the Armenian SSR.
• The communist leader of Azerbaijan SSR expressed
  his consent, but on condition that the Azerbaijan
  SSR would retain the Shusha region and that three
  regions in Armenia bordering Azerbaijan and
  populated predominantly by Azerbaijanis would be
  turned over to Azerbaijan. Armenia refused....
• 1986 Perstroyka, glastnost, liberalization
  inspired ethnic movements all over USSR
• 1987 October - the demonstration in Armenia
  started on claims to annex the Nagorno-Karabakh
  Autonomous Region (NKAR) of the Azerbaijan SSR to
  the Armenia SSR.
• 1988 July 12 - The Session of People's Deputies
  of the Regional Soviet in NKAR adopted an
  anti-constitutional decision on separation from
  the Azerbaijani SSR.

6
Some chronology

• 1992- Ad hoc OSCE Minsk Group was founded to deal
  with Karabakh issue
• 1992- Massacre of escaping Azeri civilians of the
  city Khojali (Xocali) Nagorno-Karabakh by
  Armenian and Russian troops 630 women, children,
  old people killed, 1000 taken war prisoners
• 1994 cease fire agreement between Armenia and
  Azerbaijan via mediation of OSCE

7
Results of the WAR (1988-1994)

• 30 000 killed from both sides
• 16 of Azerbaijan territory is under occupation
  of military of Armenia, including 6 regions
  beyond Nagorno-Karabakh
• Azerbaijan possess 800 000 IDPs/refugees expelled
  from Nagorniy Karabakh, Armenia and 6 occupied
  regions beyond NK
• Armenia possess 300 000 refugees from Azerbaijan
• UN Security Council passed 4 resolutions
• - recognizes the territorial integrity of
  Azerbaijan
• - demanded the immediate cessation of military
  activities
• - immediate, full and unconditional withdrawal
  of occupation forces from all the occupied
  regions of the Azerbaijan Republic.
• The Republic of Armenia refused to comply with
  these demands

8
Conflict management approaches

• Role of elites in the conflict
• Role of Armenian Diaspora
• Role of International community EU, UN, OSCE,
  Russia, Iran, Turkey
• Fail of Power mediation as traditional
  conflict settlement methods
• Pluses and minuses of track sharing
  approaches

9
Power mediation and track sharing
approaches1994

• The Budapest Summit of Concile Security and
  Cooperation in Europe adopted a two-stage legal
  framework of the settlement process
• first stage - full liberation of all occupied
  territories and ensuring return of IDPs to their
  homes
• second stage - convening Minsk Conference for
  final, comprehensive settlement of the conflict.
• The Budapest Summit also adopted a decision to
  establish an OSCE peacekeeping operation after
  the conclusion of the political agreement.

10
Power mediation and track sharing
approaches 1996

• December 2-3 - OSCE Lisbon Summit. The OSCE
  statement supported by all (53) OSCE member
  states except Armenia, on three principles for
  the settlement of the conflict
• territorial integrity of the Republic of Armenia
  and the Azerbaijan Republic
• legal status of Nagorno-Karabakh defined in an
  agreement based on self-determination which
  confers on Nagorno-Karabakh the highest degree of
  self-rule within Azerbaijan
• guaranteed security for Nagorno-Karabakh and its
  whole population, including mutual obligations to
  ensure compliance by all the parties with the
  provisions of the settlement

11
1997

• January - An institute of "triple"
  Co-Chairmanship of the OSCE Minsk Conference
  (Russia, USA and France) was introduced
• The report of the Chairman of the Defense
  Committee of the State Duma of Russia, Mr. Lev
  Rokhlin on an illegal delivery of the Russian
  weapons to Armenia worth of 1 billion USD free of
  charge.
• April 22 - Parliamentary Assembly of the Council
  of Europe adopted a Resolution (1119), where it
  stressed the settlement of the conflicts in the
  region has to be on the basis of the principles
  set out in the 1975 Helsinki Final Act and the
  1990 Paris Charter       i. inviolability of
  borders       ii. guaranteed security for all
  peoples in the areas concerned, particularly
  through multinational peacekeeping forces
        iii. extensive autonomy status for
  Abkhazia and Nagorno-Karabakh to be negotiated by
  all the parties concerned       iv. right of
  return of refugees and displaced persons and
  their reintegration respecting human rights.

12
1997

• The Minsk group introduced a "package plan i.e.
  to work in parallel negotiations on two core
  issues of the confrontation withdrawal of the
  armed forces from occupied regions and
  elaboration of the status of Nagorno-Karabakh.
  Armenia refused the plan....
• Then Minsk Group introduced "step-by-step"
  settlement plan.
• On the 1st stage
• - withdrawal of occupying armed forces from
  six districts, which are outside of the Karabakh,
  return of civilian population and restoration of
  the main communication links in the conflict
  area
• on the 2-nd stage
• - definition of the status of the
  Nagorno-Karabakh as well as of Lachin and Shusha
  

13
1997

• President of Armenia, L. Ter-Petrosian noted the
  importance of the step-by-step resolution.
  However, he had to resign under the pressure of
  the political-military circles.
• The Prime Minister R. Kocharyan (a leader of
  separatists of Mountainous Karabakh region of
  Azerbaijan) became a President of the Armenia
  the position of Armenia on the settlement of the
  conflict became tougher.
• Between 1997-2002, no meeting of the OSCE Minsk
  Group was held in full composition.

ex
Kocharian Robert President of Armenia
Levon ter Petrosian, ex president of Armenia
14
1998

•  April-May - Armenia officially declared about
  the denouncment of the consent of the
  step-by-step settlement
• November -The Co-chairmen brought a new plan
  called a "common state".
• This time Azerbaijani side refused to accept this
  proposal because of its inconsistence with the
  norms and principles of international law as well
  as the national legislation.
• Azerbaijan confirmed its readiness to resume
  negotiations within the OSCE Minsk Group
  framework, on the basis of the previous proposal
  of the co-chairmen, on the step-by-step
  settlement plan

15
1999-2002

•   Unknown person broke into the Parliament of
  Armenia during the session and formKalashnikov
  killed 7 deputies from mild oppsitional party
  including Speaker and prime Minister.
•  Direct talks between the Presidents of
  Azerbaijan and Armenia. Up to date, they have met
  more than 20 times. No results have been achieved
  so far.

16
2003

• The Secretary General of the Council of Europe
  voiced regret at the recent declaration on
  "ethnic incompatibility between Armenians and
  Azerbaijanis", made by President Kocharian of
  Armenia.
• "Recalling dark pages of European history will
  never be a good electoral strategy", underlined
  Walter Schwimmer in reference to the upcoming
  presidential elections in Armenia.
• February 19 - The presidential elections in
  Armenia R. Kocharyan was elected for his second
  term.
• October President election in Azerbaijan
• The observers of OSCE/ODIHR, CE Parliamentary
  Assembly reported that the both elections were
  held with serious irregularities (i.e. was
  fraud)

Ilham Aliev Current president of Azerbaijan
Kocharian Robert President of Armenia
17
2004

• June 19 - The government of Armenia submitted the
  program on the confclit stating that,
• "as in previous years, the government sees the
  resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem within
  peace negotiation process, emphasizing
  international recognition of the right of the
  "Artsakh" (Nagorno-Karabakh) people to
  self-determination and security guarantees of the
  population of the "Nagorno-Karabakh Republic".
  The very possibility of subordination of the
  "Nagorno-Karabakh Republic" to Azerbaijan is
  ruled out.
• The Armenian Prime Minister A.Markaryan, speaking
  about the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, said
• "Karabakh must not be part of Azerbaijan, must
  have a common border with Armenia and that the
  self-determination of the Karabakh Armenians must
  be recognized by the world".

18
2005

• Intensification of the negotiation.
• January 11 - The meeting of the Foreign Ministers
  of Armenia and Azerbaijan with participation of
  the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairmen in Prague.
• Official concept of Azerbaijan on conflict
  settlement as of 2005
• based on international legal norms and the
  recommendations indicated in the last resolution
  on the Nagorno Karabakh conflict passed by the
  Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe,
  envisions
• - liberating occupied lands,
• - repatriating refugees,
• - establishing relations between the
  Azerbaijani and Armenian communities and
  normalizing ties between the two countries.
  We consider the liberation of lands a
  beginning of this process....areas should be
  cleared from landmines and communication links
  restored in the future. ...these activities will
  be impossible without the support of the
  international community.

19
Conflict management tools

• Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
• is identity conflict (The Map of Great
  Armenia of 363-387)
• deep rooted feelings of insecurity and hatred
• non-acknowledging the parties of each other in
  the negotiation
• Therefore,
• Since symbols and values is a part of each ethnic
  groups identity, compromise is much more
  difficult than in the traditional interstate
  conflict
• Consequently, the peace-building practitioners
  should
• - concentrate on the causes of those
  feelings and develop adequate methods of their
  transformation and not only on finding political
  compromises
• - be careful about the symbolic aspects of
  the actions.

20
Identity problems

• Communities of Nagorno-Karabakh do not recognize
  each other
• Extrapolation of memory of bad events under
  Ottoman Empire (Turkey) in 1915 on Azerbaijan
  (Turkish relative people) as a potential danger
  to security of Armenia