Impacts on Agriculture, Food Security and Ecosystems

1
Impacts on Agriculture, Food Security and
Ecosystems

• José M. Moreno
• University of Castilla-La Mancha
• Toledo, Spain

2
Outline

• Introduction
• Main messages from AR4
• Impacts means vs. extremes
• Crops
• Livestock
• Fisheries
• Food security
• Ecosystems
• Summary

3
Background

• Managed systems cover ca. 40 of the earth
• Agriculture, fisheries, ecosystems feed produce
  enough food, but this is not accesible to all
  (800 M food-insecured 200 M children
  malnourished)
• Food emergencies are related to climate hazards
  and some are particularly vulnerable
• Additional production will be required by growing
  population and changes in diet (more protein)
• Increasing pressures on resources (land, water,
  pollutants) challenges systems integrity under
  evolving climate

4
Source Foley et al. 2005
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Background

• Managed systems cover ca. 40 of the earth
• Agriculture, fisheries, ecosystems feed produce
  enough food, but this is not accesible to all
  (800 M food-insecured 200 M children
  malnourished)
• Food emergencies are related to climate hazards
  and some are particularly vulnerable
• Additional production will be required by growing
  population and changes in diet (more protein)
• Increasing pressures on resources (land, water,
  pollutants) challenges systems integrity under
  evolving climate

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People undernoushired (M) (03-05)
123
231
212
189
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Background

• Managed systems cover ca. 40 of the earth
• Agriculture, fisheries, ecosystems feed produce
  enough food, but this is not accesible to all
  (800 M food-insecured 200 M children
  malnourished)
• Food emergencies are related to climate hazards
  and some are particularly vulnerable
• Additional production will be required by growing
  population and changes in diet (more protein)
• Increasing pressures on resources (land, water,
  pollutants) challenges systems integrity under
  evolving climate

9
Causes of food emergencies
10
Not everyone is equally vulnerable
11
Background

• Managed systems cover ca. 40 of the earth
• Agriculture, fisheries, ecosystems feed produce
  enough food, but this is not accesible to all
  (800 M food-insecured 200 M children
  malnourished)
• Food emergencies are related to climate hazards
  and some are particularly vulnerable
• Additional production will be required by growing
  population and changes in diet (more protein)
• Increasing pressures on resources (land, water,
  pollutants) challenges systems integrity under
  evolving climate

12
The challenge
gt6000 M people
Source UN 2006
13
Background

• Managed systems cover ca. 40 of the earth
• Agriculture, fisheries, ecosystems feed produce
  enough food, but this is not accesible to all
  (800 M food-insecured 200 M children
  malnourished)
• Food emergencies are related to climate hazards
  and some are particularly vulnerable
• Additional production will be required by growing
  population and changes in diet (more protein)
• Increasing pressures on resources (land, water,
  pollutants) challenges systems integrity under
  evolving climate

14
Man dominates land and sea
Fully exploited
Over exploited
Under-, moder. exploited
Sources Foley et al. 2005 FAO 2008
15
Pressures are increasing
Source Tilman et al. 2001
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Summary

• Introduction
• Main messages from AR4
• Impacts means vs. extremes
• Crops
• Livestock
• Fisheries
• Food security
• Ecosystems
• Summary

17
The importance of extreme events
Source AR4 SYR
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Messages from AR4 (SPM)

• Impacts due to altered frequencies and
  intensities of extreme weather, climate and
  sea-level events are very likely to change.
• Since the IPCC TAR, confidence has increased that
  some weather events and extremes will become more
  frequent, more widespread and/or more intense
  during the 21st century and more is known about
  the potential effects of such changes.

19
Examples of impacts of extremes
Source AR4 SYR
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Regions

• Africa access to food, in many African
  countries and regions is projected to be severely
  compromised by climate variability and change
• Asia the risk of hunger is projected to remain
  very high in several developing countries
• Latin America Productivity of some important
  crops and livestock is projected to decrease
  with adverse consequences for food security

21
Key vulnerabilities
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Summary

• Introduction
• Main messages from AR4
• Impacts means vs. extremes
• Crops
• Livestock
• Fisheries
• Food security
• Ecosystems
• Summary

23
Crops and climate

• Climate (mean) effects on crops have been
  detected
• Future warming is likely to affect world crops
  (/-) with important (negative) effects in
  food-insecure countries
• Extreme temperatures at critical development
  stages affect yields
• Growing-season temperatures in the tropics and
  subtropics by the end of this century is very
  likely to exceed the most extreme seasonal
  temperature recorded in the last century, which
  could dramatically affect crop productivity and
  food security
• Extremes can lower crop yields beyond the impacts
  of mean climate change, but much uncertainty
  remains about future projections and
  vulnerabilities

24
Yield and climate trends

• Estimated yield impacts of climate trends by
  decade. Negative values indicate yield losses.
  Error bars show 95 confidence interval, and the
  role of climate is significant in cases where the
  error bar does not cross the yield impact 0
  line.

Source Lobell Field 2008
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Crops and climate

• Climate (mean) effects on crops have been
  detected
• Future warming is likely to affect world crops
  (/-) with important (negative) effects in
  food-insecure countries
• Extreme temperatures at critical development
  stages affect yields
• Growing-season temperatures in the tropics and
  subtropics by the end of this century is very
  likely to exceed the most extreme seasonal
  temperature recorded in the last century, which
  could dramatically affect crop productivity and
  food security
• Extremes can lower crop yields beyond the impacts
  of mean climate change, but much uncertainty
  remains about future projections and
  vulnerabilities

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Impacts can be large early on
Probabilistic projections of production impacts
in 2030 from climate change (expressed as a
percentage of 1998 to 2002 average yields). Red,
orange, and yellow indicate a HIR of 1 to 30
(more important), 31 to 60 (important), and 61 to
94 (less important), respectively. Dashed lines
extend from 5th to 95th percentile of
projections, boxes extend from 25th to 75th
percentile, and the middle vertical line within
each box indicates themedian projection. From
Lobell et al. 2008
27
Crops and climate

• Climate (mean) effects on crops have been
  detected
• Future warming is likely to affect world crops
  (/-) with important (negative) effects in
  food-insecure countries
• Extreme temperatures at critical development
  stages affect yields
• Growing-season temperatures in the tropics and
  subtropics by the end of this century is very
  likely to exceed the most extreme seasonal
  temperature recorded in the last century, which
  could dramatically affect crop productivity and
  food security
• Extremes can lower crop yields beyond the impacts
  of mean climate change, but much uncertainty
  remains about future projections and
  vulnerabilities

28
Harvest Index and Stress
Harvest Index (HI) through time (days after
anthesis, DAA) for unstressed or stressed crops.
From Genovese et al. 2007
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Crop economic losses and stress
tr20
tr5
From Genovese et al. 2007
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Crops and climate

• Climate (mean) effects on crops have been
  detected
• Future warming is likely to affect world crops
  (/-) with important (negative) effects in
  food-insecure countries
• Extreme temperatures at critical development
  stages affect yields
• Growing-season temperatures in the tropics and
  subtropics by the end of this century is very
  likely to exceed the most extreme seasonal
  temperature recorded in the last century, which
  could dramatically affect crop productivity and
  food security
• Extremes can lower crop yields beyond the impacts
  of mean climate change, but much uncertainty
  remains about future projections and
  vulnerabilities

31
Source Battisti Naylor 2009
32
Source Battisti Naylor 2009
33
Crops and climate

• Climate (mean) effects on crops have been
  detected
• Future warming is likely to affect world crops
  (/-) with important (negative) effects in
  food-insecure countries
• Extreme temperatures at critical development
  stages affect yields
• Growing-season temperatures in the tropics and
  subtropics by the end of this century is very
  likely to exceed the most extreme seasonal
  temperature recorded in the last century, which
  could dramatically affect crop productivity and
  food security
• Extremes can lower crop yields beyond the impacts
  of mean climate change, but much uncertainty
  remains about future projections and
  vulnerabilities

34
Crops and water

• Droughts (i.e., periods of below average
  rainfall) are a recurrent phenomena in many
  parts of the world
• Water availability is major threat to rain-fed
  agriculture, which dominates throughout the
  world, including many semi-arid, whose GDP still
  is couple to rain
• Increases in crop irrigation requirements are
  projected to globally increase due to global
  warming, while runoff is expected to decrease,
  hence increasing water stress
• Much of the most productive land is in the low
  lands and is subject to inundations and heavy
  rainfall and effects could be long lasting

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Magnitude and duration
Source Valdés 2008
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Crops and water

• Droughts (i.e., periods of below average
  rainfall) are a recurrent phenomena in many
  parts of the world
• Water availability is major threat to rain-fed
  agriculture, which dominates throughout the
  world, including many semi-arid, whose GDP still
  is coupled to rain
• Increases in crop irrigation requirements are
  projected to globally increase due to global
  warming, while runoff is expected to decrease,
  hence increasing water stress
• Much of the most productive land is in the low
  lands and is subject to inundations and heavy
  rainfall and effects could be long lasting

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Rainfall and GDP
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Crops and water

• Droughts (i.e., periods of below average
  rainfall) are a recurrent phenomena in many
  parts of the world
• Water availability is major threat to rain-fed
  agriculture, which dominates throughout the
  world, including many semi-arid, whose GDP still
  is couple to rain
• Increases in crop irrigation requirements are
  projected to globally increase due to global
  warming, while runoff is expected to decrease,
  hence increasing water stress
• Much of the most productive land is in the low
  lands and is subject to inundations and heavy
  rainfall and effects could be long lasting

40
Runoff by the end of the 21st century
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Distribution
42
Crops and water

• Droughts (i.e., periods of below average
  rainfall) are a recurrent phenomena in many
  parts of the world
• Water availability is major threat to rain-fed
  agriculture, which dominates throughout the
  world, including many semi-arid, whose GDP still
  is couple to rain
• Increases in crop irrigation requirements are
  projected to globally increase due to global
  warming, while runoff is expected to decrease,
  hence increasing water stress
• Much of the most productive land is in the low
  lands and is subject to inundations and heavy
  rainfall and effects could be long lasting

43
Floods and long term efffectsThe flood of the
century in Bangladesh

• Flooding is part of Bangledesh
• The 1998 flood was extreme 2/3 of the country
  1000 died, 30 M homeless
• 10 of the rice crop lost the long duration
  prevented replanting, tens of million faced food
  security
• The proportion of children suffering malnutrition
  doubled 40 had not reverted to normal 15 months
  later
• Management of the flood was a success, since
  averted many deaths
• Long term effect of malnutrion on children as
  they may never recover from the flood

Long term effects through the people affected
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Pastures and livestock

• Thermal stress reduces productivity, conception
  rates and is potentially life-threatening to
  livestock (confined or free ranging)
• Increases in drought in semiarid rangelands can
  have large effects on animal mortality, thus
  large effects on the system directly and
  indirectly, through increase land degradation

45
2003 Heat wave in Europe

• Pastures fodder deficits (30DE-60 FR)
• Beef 1500 M losses or 200 per livestock unit
  Fr
• Milk losses in the dairy sector of 1 B Fr
• Poultry 4M broilers dead Fr poultry flock
  reduced 15 ES-25Fr
• Total finnacial impact 13 B

Multiple interactive effects among systems and
sectors putting emerging system beyond their
capacity
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Pastures and livestock

• Thermal stress reduces productivity, conception
  rates and is potentially life-threatening to
  livestock (confined or free ranging)
• Increases in drought in semiarid rangelands can
  have large effects on animal mortality, thus
  large effects on the system directly and
  indirectly, through increase land degradation

47
Drought and livestock mortality
Long term effects through direct and indirect
hazard impact on the system
From Easterling et al. 2007
48
Fisheries

• Climate change impacts on fisheries cannot be
  understood without considering fishing pressures
• Climate variability is a major determinant of
  fish distribution and abundance, but how these
  affect fisheries and aquaculture varies from
  region to region
• Effects can also result from multiple interacting
  hazards on several systems and various stressors

49
Salmon migration and temperature
Mortality for Fraser River adult sockeye
salmon 19.6C 50 after 9 days18.0C 50 after
16 days15.9C 50 after 29 days
0.6-1.3 M fishunaccounted
Hazards effects and bottlenecks
http//www-comm.pac.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/publications/200
4psr/Williams5_e.htm
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Fisheries

• Climate change impacts on fisheries cannot be
  understood without considering fishing pressures
• Climate variability is a major determinant of
  fish distribution and abundance, but how these
  affect fisheries and aquaculture varies from
  region to region
• Effects can also result from multiple interacting
  hazards on several systems and various stressors

51
Box 5.3 Climate change and the fisheries of the
lower Mekong an example of multiple stresses on
a megadelta fisheries system due to human activity

• In the lower Mekong, ca. 40 M people are active
  in fishing
• Fishing is 10 GDP Cambodia and Lao PDR
• 1000 species of fish in the river
• Threats
• Changes in river flow (high and low)(climate,
  man)
• Sea level rise
• Changes in salt water
• More intense tropical storms
• Changes in fish species likely, but may not
  affect fisheries rice productivity is to decline

Interactions among multiple hazards and stressors
(hotspots)
52
Global distribution of highest disaster risk
hotspot by hazard type
From Dilley 2005
53
Food security

• The four dimensions availability (i.e.,
  production, trade), stability of supplies,
  access, and utilization
• Each of these dimensions is likely be affected by
  climate change, the net result being that the
  number of people at risk of hunger will likely
  increase, depending on development pathways
• However, major uncertainties remain to be solved,
  among them the role of extreme events on food
  stability

Are there cascading effects?
54
Ecosystems (fire)

• Disturbances are an integral part of ecosystems.
  While there are many disturbances, few are able
  to produce disasters as recorded by the ISDR,
  fire being the most important one.
• Fire dominates world ecosystems, and much of
  extant vegetation is due to it
• Forest fires have been increasing, and in some
  areas, part of it has been due to changes in
  climate (SW EU)
• Fires are closely related to extreme climatology
  (temperature, drought) few fires account for
  most of the burned area
• The relationships between mean climate and fire
  vary across regions but significant relationships
  have been detected between the fire-size
  structure and the corresponding fire-weather

55
World fires in 2005
Source http//dup.esrin.esa.int/ionia/wfa
56
From J. Goldammer
57
Ecosystems (fire)

• Disturbances are an integral part of ecosystems.
  While there are many disturbances, few are able
  to produce disasters as recorded by the ISDR,
  fire being the most important one.
• Fire dominates world ecosystems, and much of
  extant vegetation is due to it
• Forest fires have been increasing, and in some
  areas, part of it has been due to changes in
  climate (SW EU)
• Fires are closely related to extreme climatology
  (temperature, drought) few fires account for
  most of the burned area
• The relationships between mean climate and fire
  vary across regions but significant relationships
  have been detected between the fire-size
  structure and the corresponding fire-weather

58
Fires and timing of snowmel
Source Westerling et al. 2006
59
Ecosystems (fire)

• Disturbances are an integral part of ecosystems.
  While there are many disturbances, few are able
  to produce disasters as recorded by the ISDR,
  fire being the most important one.
• Fire dominates world ecosystems, and much of
  extant vegetation is due to it
• Forest fires have been increasing, and in some
  areas, part of it has been due to changes in
  climate (SW EU)
• Fires are closely related to extreme climatology
  (temperature, drought) few fires account for
  most of the burned area
• The relationships between mean climate and fire
  vary across regions but significant relationships
  have been detected between the fire-size
  structure and the corresponding fire-weather

60
Fire as an extreme event
5
Low extremeLow variability
Highly extreme Highly variable
Highly extreme Interm. variable
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Ecosystems (fire)

• Disturbances are an integral part of ecosystems.
  While there are many disturbances, few are able
  to produce disasters as recorded by the ISDR,
  fire being the most important one.
• Fire dominates world ecosystems, and much of
  extant vegetation is due to it
• Forest fires have been increasing, and in some
  areas, part of it has been due to changes in
  climate (SW EU)
• Fires are closely related to extreme climatology
  (temperature, drought) few fires account for
  most of the burned area
• The relationships between mean climate and fire
  vary across regions but significant relationships
  have been detected between the fire-size
  structure and the corresponding fire-weather

62
N(ltS)-1.073S
Cilento (IT)
Molise (IT)
N(ltS)-0.524S
Simbruini (IT)
Gredos (ES)
N(ltS)-0.337S
Ribera del Ebro (ES)
Alicante (ES)
Source Ricotta et al 2001
63
Weather events
Fire areas
AuCT
SWAu
SE NSW
NE VIC
Source Boer et al 2008
64
Ecosystems (fire)

• Human actions can increase fire risk, in
  particular due to ill-conceived planning,
  abandonment or land-use change (clearing/afforesta
  tion), and fires are most damaging when they
  occur at the wild-land urban interface,
  threatening lives and human assets
• Warming will increase fire-weather danger,
  particularly extreme weather, and with it the
  probability of fire (large fires)
• Other extremes can interact with fire, either
  before (drought, thus increasing fire hazard,
  pest outbreaks and dead fuel), or after fire
  (reduced regeneration potential, extreme rain
• Climate change can modify land-use/land cover and
  productivity, with potential synergies on fire
• Weather extremes can bring fires to where these
  were not common, thus increasing the potential
  for change

65
Source Radeloff et al 2005
66
Ecosystems (fire)

• Human actions can increase fire risk, in
  particular due to ill-conceived planning,
  abandonment or land-use change (clearing/afforesta
  tion), and fires are most damaging when they
  occur at the wild-land urban interface,
  threatening lives and human assets
• Warming will increase fire-weather danger,
  particularly extreme weather, and with it the
  probability of fire (large fires)
• Other extremes can interact with fire, either
  before (drought, thus increasing fire hazard,
  pest outbreaks and dead fuel), or after fire
  (reduced regeneration potential, extreme rain
• Climate change can modify land-use/land cover and
  productivity, with potential synergies on fire
• Weather extremes can bring fires to where these
  were not common, thus increasing the potential
  for change

67
Fire danger in Australia
2020
2050
Figure E1 Percentage changes to SFFDI in the
CCAM (Mark 3) simulations. The 2020 case is on
the left 2050 on the right. At each site, values
for the low scenario (0.4/0.7ºC) are to the
left of slash, while values for the high scenario
(1.0/2.9ºC) are to the right. From Lucas et al.
2007.
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Alert season
2071-2100
Days of risk
5 RCMs
Source Moreno et al. 2009. ALARM Atlas
69
Ecosystems (fire)

• Human actions can increase fire risk, in
  particular due to ill-conceived planning,
  abandonment or land-use change (clearing/afforesta
  tion), and fires are most damaging when they
  occur at the wild-land urban interface,
  threatening lives and human assets
• Warming will increase fire-weather danger,
  particularly extreme weather, and with it the
  probability of fire (large fires)
• Other extremes can interact with fire, either
  before (drought, thus increasing fire hazard,
  pest outbreaks and dead fuel), or after fire
  (reduced regeneration potential, extreme rain
• Climate change can modify land-use/land cover and
  productivity, with potential synergies on fire
• Weather extremes can bring fires to where these
  were not common, thus increasing the potential
  for change

70
Drought and forest die-back
Thesholds for irreversible change
Source Threshold of climate change in ecosystems
2009
71
Ecosystems (fire)

• Human actions can increase fire risk, in
  particular due to ill-conceived planning,
  abandonment or land-use change (clearing/afforesta
  tion), and fires are most damaging when they
  occur at the wild-land urban interface,
  threatening lives and human assets
• Warming will increase fire-weather danger,
  particularly extreme weather, and with it the
  probability of fire (large fires)
• Other extremes can interact with fire, either
  before (drought, thus increasing fire hazard,
  pest outbreaks and dead fuel), or after fire
  (reduced regeneration potential, extreme rain
• Climate change can modify land-use/land cover and
  productivity, with potential synergies on fire as
  well as species composition
• Weather extremes can bring fires to where these
  were not common, thus increasing the potential
  for change

72
Arable land 2050-2080
Source Metzger et al. 2004
73
From J. Goldammer
74
Ecosystems (fire)

• Human actions can increase fire risk, in
  particular due to ill-conceived planning,
  abandonment or land-use change (clearing/afforesta
  tion), and fires are most damaging when they
  occur at the wild-land urban interface,
  threatening lives and human assets
• Warming will increase fire-weather danger,
  particularly extreme weather, and with it the
  probability of fire (large fires)
• Other extremes can interact with fire, either
  before (drought, thus increasing fire hazard,
  pest outbreaks and dead fuel), or after fire
  (reduced regeneration potential, extreme rain
• Climate change can modify land-use/land cover and
  productivity, with potential synergies on fire
• Weather extremes can bring fires to where these
  were not common, thus increasing the potential
  for change

75
Figure 50. Burnt scars produced by forest fires
in the Mediterranean region during the fire
season 2007. From JRC ST Report 8
76
Recap. Remember the importance of extremes

• Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to
  adjust to climate change (including climate
  variability and extremes) to moderate potential
  damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or
  to cope with the consequences.
• Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is
  susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse
  effects of climate change, including climate
  variability and extremes. Vulnerability is a
  function of the character, magnitude, and rate of
  climate change and variation to which a system is
  exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive
  capacity.

77
Fires in 2003
Hazard magnitude and vulnerability relationships
are not simple
Source JRC EFFIS 2003
78
Summary

• Projected changes in extreme climate events can
  have more serious consequences for food
  production and food insecurity than changes in
  projected means of temperature and precipitation
• Similarly, changes in extremes can directly or
  indirectly, through disturbances like fire,
  affect many world ecosystems.
• While messages on impacts from extremes abound in
  AR4, many of the purported impacts still suffer
  from poor representation in impact-models of
  these phenomena
• Impacts studies must incorporate weather and
  climate extremes to them to better account for
  future vulnerabilities
• Changes in frequency, intensity/magnitude,
  duration, season, extent and distribution as
  these affect severity/vulnerability need to be
  taken fully into consideration plus multiple
  interactions

79
Thanks !