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West Coast and Alaska Tsunami warning Center Palmer, AK 61008

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Title: West Coast and Alaska Tsunami warning Center Palmer, AK 61008


1
West Coast and Alaska Tsunami warning
Center Palmer, AK 6/10/08
  • Tsunami Products, Thresholds, Definitions
  • Computed threat levels
  • Seismic source zones
  • Conference calls - NOAK 78
  • Communications tests

2
  • The WCATWC
  • Staff
    AOR
  • 12 watchstanders Pacific US,
    Canada
  • 2 IT
    Atlantic US, Canada
  • 2 ETs US
    Gulf coast
  • 1 Admin Puerto
    Rico, VI

3
Tsunami Product modifications
  • Warning Criteria Response Team recommendations
    2/27/07
  • Recognized two classes of threat
  • Inundation (evacuation - amplitude over 1 m)
  • coastal currents (stay clear of coastal waters
    amplitude 0.3 1 m)
  • Reduce extent of warning zones
  • Partial Implementation on February 12, 2008
  • Service Change Notice
  • Web notice
  • Include definitions in messages
  • Discussion points
  • Hawaii
  • International definition
    issues
  • TIS potential danger
  • Inclusion of potential response actions

4
Warning Criteria Review Team members
  • Assembled June, 2007
  • Members
  • Crawford
  • Goltz
  • Wilson
  • Petty
  • Kryzanowski
  • Bolton
  • Hanson
  • Rogers
  • Malone
  • Dengler
  • Oppenheimer
  • Fryer
  • Whitmore
  • Other reviewers as requested by states

Report in Science of Tsunami Hazards Vol 27
2, 2008
5
Somewhat simplified flow during an event
(1-13-2007 Kuril example)
  • Bulletin 1 issued - based on seismic data alone
  • Historical review, unscaled model data following
    first bulletin
  • Later bulletins guided by forecasting and tide
    gauge / DART data
  • Bulletins issued roughly every 30 minutes
  • Conference calls to WFOs beginning after Bulletin
    3
  • Cancellation

6
Tsunami Products Definitions
  • Warning (wave amplitude expected to exceed 1 m)
  • A tsunami warning is issued when a potential
    tsunami with significant widespread inundation is
    imminent or expected. Warnings alert the public
    that widespread, dangerous coastal flooding
    accompanied by powerful currents is possible and
    may continue for several hours after arrival of
    the initial wave. Warnings also alert emergency
    management officials to take action for the
    entire tsunami hazard zone. Appropriate actions
    to be taken by local officials may include the
    evacuation of low-lying coastal areas and
    repositioning ships to deep waters when there is
    time to safely do so. Warnings may be updated,
    adjusted geographically, downgraded, or canceled.
    To provide the earliest possible alert, initial
    warnings are normally based only on seismic
    information.

7
Tsunami Products / Definitions
  • Advisory (forecasted amplitude between 0.3 and 1
    m)
  • A tsunami advisory is issued for the threat of a
    potential tsunami that may produce strong
    currents or waves dangerous to those in or near
    the water. Coastal regions historically prone to
    damage due to strong currents induced by tsunamis
    are at the greatest risk. The threat may continue
    for several hours after the arrival of the
    initial wave, but significant widespread
    inundation is not expected for areas under an
    advisory. Appropriate actions to be taken by
    local officials may include closing beaches,
    evacuating harbors and marinas, and repositioning
    ships to deep waters when there is time to safely
    do so. Advisories are normally updated to
    continue the advisory, expand/contract affected
    areas, upgrade to a warning, or cancel the
    advisory.

Sea of Japan 1983
8
Tsunami Products Definitions
  • Watch
  • A tsunami watch is issued to alert emergency
    management officials and the public of an event
    that may later impact the watch area. The watch
    area may be upgraded to a warning or advisory -
    or canceled - based on updated information and
    analysis. Therefore emergency management
    officials and the public should prepare to take
    action. Watches are normally issued based on
    seismic information without confirmation that a
    destructive tsunami is underway.

9
Tsunami Products / Definitions
  • Information Statement
  • A tsunami information statement is issued to
    inform emergency management officials and the
    public that an earthquake has occurred, or that a
    tsunami warning, watch or advisory has been
    issued for another section of the ocean. In most
    cases information statements are issued to
    indicate there is no threat of a destructive
    tsunami and to prevent unnecessary evacuations
    because the earthquake may have been felt in
    coastal areas. An information statement may, in
    appropriate situations, caution about the
    possibility of destructive local tsunamis.
    Information statements may be reissued with
    additional information, though normally these
    messages are not updated. However, a watch,
    advisory or warning may be issued for the area,
    if necessary, after analysis and/or updated
    information becomes available.

10
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11
Tsunami Products Definitions
  • Warning (wave amplitude expected to exceed 1 m)
  • A tsunami warning is issued when a potential
    tsunami with significant widespread inundation is
    imminent or expected. Warnings alert the public
    that widespread, dangerous coastal flooding
    accompanied by powerful currents is possible and
    may continue for several hours after arrival of
    the initial wave. Warnings also alert emergency
    management officials to take action for the
    entire tsunami hazard zone. Appropriate actions
    to be taken by local officials may include the
    evacuation of low-lying coastal areas and
    repositioning ships to deep waters when there is
    time to safely do so. Warnings may be updated,
    adjusted geographically, downgraded, or canceled.
    To provide the earliest possible alert, initial
    warnings are normally based only on seismic
    information.
  • Watch
  • A tsunami watch is issued to alert emergency
    management officials and the public of an event
    that may later impact the watch area. The watch
    area may be upgraded to a warning or advisory -
    or canceled - based on updated information and
    analysis. Therefore emergency management
    officials and the public should prepare to take
    action. Watches are normally issued based on
    seismic information without confirmation that a
    destructive tsunami is underway.

12
Expanding Watch / Warning
Mw gt 7.8 Near-shore
13
Reduction in Watch / Warning areas for smaller
events
Mw 7.1-7.5 Shallow Near-shore 350 Km warning
to nearest breakpoints
14
Reduction in Watch / Warning areas
Mw 7.6-7.8 Shallow Near-shore 1000 Km warning
to nearest breakpoints
15
Specific Area W/W/A
  • Based on computed / forecasted threat or
    historical analysis
  • Usually not used for bulletin 1
  • Limit to 2 coastal stretches of each threat
    level
  • Extent defined by break points
  • Issues
  • time spent in a watch condition
  • number of reclassifications between warning and
    advisory

16
Warning Criteria Review Team further
recommendations-
  • Suggested changes to existing procedures
  • Warning/advisory regions based on pre-computed
    threat analysis Kamchatka example
  • Warning/watch extent generally further reduced
  • 7.1-7.5 - near shore 250km warning, no
    watch/no advisory
  • 7.1-7.5 off shore 250km advisory, no watch/no
    warning
  • 7.6-7.8 500km warning, 500-1000km advisory, no
    watch
  • New advisory product included
  • Hypocentral depth included
  • Special procedure areas expanded
  • Puget Sound, Cook Inlet, E. Vancouver I., San
    Francisco Bay, etc.
  • Chatham Strait?

17
Example of proposed off-shore area
Strike / slip provinces west of
Cascadia Off-shore M 7.1-7.5 250 km
advisory close to shore M 7.1-7.5 250 km
warning M 7.6-7.8 500 km warning
18
Epicenter of the 6-2005 Gorda Event relative to
the Cascadia Subduction Zone
19
2005 Gorda Plate M7.2
2006 Kuril Islands M8.3
20
2005 Gorda Plate M7.2
2006 Kuril Islands M8.3
21
Warning extent using Computed threat Vs Travel
time
Computed amplitudes for a hypothetical Mw 9
Puerto Rico trench quake
Energy map for the 4-1-07 Solomon Island quake
tsunami
22
Computed threat (Kuril Island tsunami 11/15/06
example)
Initial wave at Southern California
Initial wave at Crescent City
23
  • Scaling matrix for location of source and gauge
    for model calibration Setting of threat zones.
  • Based on review of historical data

24
Tsunami products
  • Computed threat
  • Forecasted Heights/ Energy Maps
  • Energy propagation animations
  • Placed on TWC website, with press, or used during
    conference calls

Energy_flux
25
Concept for interactive graphical output - WCATWC
26
Concept for interactive graphical output Courtesy
of Edison Gica PMEL

27
  • Conference call Details
  • Send out NOAK 78 product on AWIPS to WFOs
  • Send out via e-mail to state warning points
  • Time of conference and passcode is specified
  • TWC initiates the conference
  • Cover current threat, ETAs, wave heights
  • Poll WFO, WPs
  • Set time for next conference
  • Tsunami portal for graphics ??

28
  • Conference call product (NOAK 78)
  • Should continue for all w/w/a events? Update
    frequency?
  • Problems encountered
  • Template to work off of during discussions /
    shared graphics ?
  • Secure briefing website, tsunami.Gov-Tsunami_Porta
    l (for both WFOs and EMs)
  • Test frequency
  • Suggestions
  • Pacific Tsunami Comms tests
  • Calldown to WSOs (respond to TWC or…to WFO)
  • AKWAS roll call to continue?
  • Tsunami Outreach who owns what ? Train the
    trainers?
  • Handling the press during an event
  • July 9, 2008 50th anniversary of the 525m Lituya
    Bay tsunami

29
Upcoming Exercises and tests
  • California/Alaska end-to-end test next March
  • September, 2008 west coast test
  • End-to-End tsunami test for Carolinas ?
  • Others?

30
Kenai Peninsula communities
Kenai Borough State Troopers Homer PD, FD
Community Alert Notification System
31
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