West Coast and Alaska Tsunami warning Center Palmer, AK 61008

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West Coast and Alaska Tsunami warning
CenterPalmer, AK 6/10/08

• Tsunami Products, Thresholds, Definitions
• Computed threat levels
• Seismic source zones
• Conference calls - NOAK 78
• Communications tests

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• The WCATWC
• Staff
  AOR
• 12 watchstanders Pacific US,
  Canada
• 2 IT
  Atlantic US, Canada
• 2 ETs US
  Gulf coast
• 1 Admin Puerto
  Rico, VI

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Tsunami Product modifications

• Warning Criteria Response Team recommendations
  2/27/07
• Recognized two classes of threat
• Inundation (evacuation - amplitude over 1 m)
• coastal currents (stay clear of coastal waters
  amplitude 0.3 1 m)
• Reduce extent of warning zones
• Partial Implementation on February 12, 2008
• Service Change Notice
• Web notice
• Include definitions in messages
• Discussion points
• Hawaii
• International definition
  issues
• TIS potential danger
• Inclusion of potential response actions

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Warning Criteria Review Team members

• Assembled June, 2007
• Members
  
• Crawford
• Goltz
• Wilson
• Petty
• Kryzanowski
• Bolton
• Hanson
• Rogers
• Malone
• Dengler
• Oppenheimer
• Fryer
• Whitmore
• Other reviewers as requested by states

Report in Science of Tsunami Hazards Vol 27
2, 2008
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Somewhat simplified flow during an event
(1-13-2007 Kuril example)

• Bulletin 1 issued - based on seismic data alone
• Historical review, unscaled model data following
  first bulletin
• Later bulletins guided by forecasting and tide
  gauge / DART data
• Bulletins issued roughly every 30 minutes
• Conference calls to WFOs beginning after Bulletin
  3
• Cancellation

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Tsunami Products Definitions

• Warning (wave amplitude expected to exceed 1 m)
• A tsunami warning is issued when a potential
  tsunami with significant widespread inundation is
  imminent or expected. Warnings alert the public
  that widespread, dangerous coastal flooding
  accompanied by powerful currents is possible and
  may continue for several hours after arrival of
  the initial wave. Warnings also alert emergency
  management officials to take action for the
  entire tsunami hazard zone. Appropriate actions
  to be taken by local officials may include the
  evacuation of low-lying coastal areas and
  repositioning ships to deep waters when there is
  time to safely do so. Warnings may be updated,
  adjusted geographically, downgraded, or canceled.
  To provide the earliest possible alert, initial
  warnings are normally based only on seismic
  information.

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Tsunami Products / Definitions

• Advisory (forecasted amplitude between 0.3 and 1
  m)
• A tsunami advisory is issued for the threat of a
  potential tsunami that may produce strong
  currents or waves dangerous to those in or near
  the water. Coastal regions historically prone to
  damage due to strong currents induced by tsunamis
  are at the greatest risk. The threat may continue
  for several hours after the arrival of the
  initial wave, but significant widespread
  inundation is not expected for areas under an
  advisory. Appropriate actions to be taken by
  local officials may include closing beaches,
  evacuating harbors and marinas, and repositioning
  ships to deep waters when there is time to safely
  do so. Advisories are normally updated to
  continue the advisory, expand/contract affected
  areas, upgrade to a warning, or cancel the
  advisory.

Sea of Japan 1983
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Tsunami Products Definitions

• Watch
• A tsunami watch is issued to alert emergency
  management officials and the public of an event
  that may later impact the watch area. The watch
  area may be upgraded to a warning or advisory -
  or canceled - based on updated information and
  analysis. Therefore emergency management
  officials and the public should prepare to take
  action. Watches are normally issued based on
  seismic information without confirmation that a
  destructive tsunami is underway.

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Tsunami Products / Definitions

• Information Statement
• A tsunami information statement is issued to
  inform emergency management officials and the
  public that an earthquake has occurred, or that a
  tsunami warning, watch or advisory has been
  issued for another section of the ocean. In most
  cases information statements are issued to
  indicate there is no threat of a destructive
  tsunami and to prevent unnecessary evacuations
  because the earthquake may have been felt in
  coastal areas. An information statement may, in
  appropriate situations, caution about the
  possibility of destructive local tsunamis.
  Information statements may be reissued with
  additional information, though normally these
  messages are not updated. However, a watch,
  advisory or warning may be issued for the area,
  if necessary, after analysis and/or updated
  information becomes available.

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Tsunami Products Definitions

• Warning (wave amplitude expected to exceed 1 m)
• A tsunami warning is issued when a potential
  tsunami with significant widespread inundation is
  imminent or expected. Warnings alert the public
  that widespread, dangerous coastal flooding
  accompanied by powerful currents is possible and
  may continue for several hours after arrival of
  the initial wave. Warnings also alert emergency
  management officials to take action for the
  entire tsunami hazard zone. Appropriate actions
  to be taken by local officials may include the
  evacuation of low-lying coastal areas and
  repositioning ships to deep waters when there is
  time to safely do so. Warnings may be updated,
  adjusted geographically, downgraded, or canceled.
  To provide the earliest possible alert, initial
  warnings are normally based only on seismic
  information.
• Watch
• A tsunami watch is issued to alert emergency
  management officials and the public of an event
  that may later impact the watch area. The watch
  area may be upgraded to a warning or advisory -
  or canceled - based on updated information and
  analysis. Therefore emergency management
  officials and the public should prepare to take
  action. Watches are normally issued based on
  seismic information without confirmation that a
  destructive tsunami is underway.

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Expanding Watch / Warning
Mw gt 7.8 Near-shore
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Reduction in Watch / Warning areas for smaller
events
Mw 7.1-7.5 Shallow Near-shore 350 Km warning
to nearest breakpoints
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Reduction in Watch / Warning areas
Mw 7.6-7.8 Shallow Near-shore 1000 Km warning
to nearest breakpoints
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Specific Area W/W/A

• Based on computed / forecasted threat or
  historical analysis
• Usually not used for bulletin 1
• Limit to 2 coastal stretches of each threat
  level
• Extent defined by break points
• Issues
• time spent in a watch condition
• number of reclassifications between warning and
  advisory

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Warning Criteria Review Team further
recommendations-

• Suggested changes to existing procedures
• Warning/advisory regions based on pre-computed
  threat analysis Kamchatka example
• Warning/watch extent generally further reduced
• 7.1-7.5 - near shore 250km warning, no
  watch/no advisory
• 7.1-7.5 off shore 250km advisory, no watch/no
  warning
• 7.6-7.8 500km warning, 500-1000km advisory, no
  watch
• New advisory product included
• Hypocentral depth included
• Special procedure areas expanded
• Puget Sound, Cook Inlet, E. Vancouver I., San
  Francisco Bay, etc.
• Chatham Strait?

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Example of proposed off-shore area
Strike / slip provinces west of
Cascadia Off-shore M 7.1-7.5 250 km
advisory close to shore M 7.1-7.5 250 km
warning M 7.6-7.8 500 km warning
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Epicenter of the 6-2005 Gorda Event relative to
the Cascadia Subduction Zone
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2005 Gorda Plate M7.2
2006 Kuril Islands M8.3
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2005 Gorda Plate M7.2
2006 Kuril Islands M8.3
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Warning extent using Computed threat Vs Travel
time
Computed amplitudes for a hypothetical Mw 9
Puerto Rico trench quake
Energy map for the 4-1-07 Solomon Island quake
tsunami
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Computed threat (Kuril Island tsunami 11/15/06
example)
Initial wave at Southern California
Initial wave at Crescent City
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• Scaling matrix for location of source and gauge
  for model calibration Setting of threat zones.
• Based on review of historical data

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Tsunami products

• Computed threat
• Forecasted Heights/ Energy Maps
• Energy propagation animations
• Placed on TWC website, with press, or used during
  conference calls

Energy_flux
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Concept for interactive graphical output - WCATWC
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Concept for interactive graphical output Courtesy
of Edison Gica PMEL

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• Conference call Details
• Send out NOAK 78 product on AWIPS to WFOs
• Send out via e-mail to state warning points
• Time of conference and passcode is specified
• TWC initiates the conference
• Cover current threat, ETAs, wave heights
• Poll WFO, WPs
• Set time for next conference
• Tsunami portal for graphics ??

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• Conference call product (NOAK 78)
• Should continue for all w/w/a events? Update
  frequency?
• Problems encountered
• Template to work off of during discussions /
  shared graphics ?
• Secure briefing website, tsunami.Gov-Tsunami_Porta
  l (for both WFOs and EMs)
• Test frequency
• Suggestions
• Pacific Tsunami Comms tests
• Calldown to WSOs (respond to TWC orto WFO)
• AKWAS roll call to continue?
• Tsunami Outreach who owns what ? Train the
  trainers?
• Handling the press during an event
• July 9, 2008 50th anniversary of the 525m Lituya
  Bay tsunami

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Upcoming Exercises and tests

• California/Alaska end-to-end test next March
• September, 2008 west coast test
• End-to-End tsunami test for Carolinas ?
• Others?

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Kenai Peninsula communities
Kenai Borough State Troopers Homer PD, FD
Community Alert Notification System
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