Kostnytte analyser av tiltak som reduserer utslipp av klimagasser og bedrer lokal luftkvalitet, kan

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Kost-nytte analyser av tiltak som reduserer
utslipp av klimagasser og bedrer lokal
luftkvalitet, kan påvirke miljøpolitikken i
utviklingsland - Eksempler fra Kina.

• Hans Martin Seip
• Dept. of Chemistry, University of Oslo
• Cicero (Center for international climate and
  environmental research Oslo)
• UiO konferanse om miljøendringer og bærekraftig
  energi, 11 nov. 2008

Arbeidet med dette i ca 15 år. Mange har
deltatt, men kjernen har vært Kristin Aunan,
Biolog, Cicero og Kjemisk institutt Hans Martin
Seip Haakon Vennemo, Økonom, Econ Pöyry
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Co-benefits (ancillary, secondary benefits)

• Siden mange tiltak som primært tar sikte på å
  redusere utslippene av drivhusgasser, har mange
  andre virkninger, er det et klart behov for en
  totalvurdering (integrated approach).
• Kirk R. Smith, University of California,
  BerkeleyThe Co-benefit approach is important as
  it
• Helps reduce the cost of climate mitigation by
  sharing cost with other sectors.
• Recognizes that society still has major goals
  besides avoiding climate change, such as
  providing acceptable levels of health protection
  to the worlds poor.
• Reduces the political gap between developed and
  developing countries in international climate
  negotiations by showing how developing countries
  can obtain early achievement of more certain
  benefits that directly relate to development
  needs (no regret investments) while
  contributing to climate mitigation.

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Mange tiltak primært beregnet på å redusere
utslippene av drivhusgasser, har også andre
positive virkninger (co-benefits)

• IPCC WG III (2007) on co-benefits . in all
  analyzed world regions near-term health
  co-benefits from reduced air pollution as a
  result of actions to reduce GHG emissions can be
  substantial and may offset a substantial fraction
  of mitigation costs (high agreement, much
  evidence).

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Hvorfor Kina?

• Kina er det land som har størst CO2-utslipp, selv
  om utslippene per person fortsatt er mye lavere
  enn i USA og Europa.
• Utslippene av drivhusgasser stiger raskt.
• Som i mange andre utviklingsland, er det store
  lokale og regionale luftforurensningsproblemer.
• Kina er en viktig rollemodell for andre
  utviklingsland.

Primært energiforbruk i Kina (mtoe) (Kommersiell
energi)
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Conference on Co-benefits, September 2008 Some
Main Conclusions

• Current science emphasizes the urgent need to
  address air pollution and climate change in an
  integrated way. We should no longer treat these
  two issues separately as we strive to achieve
  sustainable development and a low carbon society.
• Potential co-benefits might have implications for
  the future development of international air
  pollution and climate change negotiating and
  policy processes. ..
• To develop co-benefits strategies, enhanced
  collaboration and communication between key
  climate change and air pollution stakeholders is
  considered essential at international, national
  and local scales these may include government
  departments and industry.

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Cost-Benefit Analysis Main steps in a bottom
up-analysis

• To calculate the net benefits, it is necessary to
  know
• 1. how the measures affect the emissions
• 2. how the exposure of humans and the environment
  changes
• 3. changes in the effects due to changed exposure
  (exposure-response or dose-response functions)
• 4. size of non-emission effects
• 5. the economic values of the changes
• 6. cost of control options
• Weighting costs and benefits

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Usikkerheter

• Det er stor usikkerhet i alle trinn, særlig i
  eksponering-respons funksjonene og verdsettingen.
• Usikkerheten i pengeverdiene kan sannsynligvis
  best angis som geometrisk standard avvik (?g). Et
  68 konfidensintervall (KI) finnes da ved å
  dividere og multiplisere medianverdien med ?g, et
  95 KI finnes ved å dividere og multiplisere med
  ?g2. I mange tilfeller er ?g omtrent 3 eller
  større.

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Helsevirkninger

• Helseskader av partikler vil ofte dominere
• Akutt eller langtids (kronisk) virkning på
  dødelighet. Kronisk dødelighet mye større, men
  det er få undersøkelser særlig i utviklingsland.
  Tapte leveår/antall ekstra dødsfall.
• Verdsetting Betalingsvillighet eller
  menneskelig kapital verdier. Det siste, som gir
  betydelig lavere verdier, foretrekkes ofte i
  Kina. En nylig Verdensbankstudie benyttet h.h.v.
  1 million Yuan og 280 000 Yuan for verdien av et
  statistisk liv i Kina.

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CGE model Assessment of a CO2 and/or SO2 tax in
China, accounting for health and agricultural
co-benefits
Semi-bottom-up studyEnergy saving and clean
coal technologies in Shanxi province CO2
reductions and health co-benefits
Bottom-up studyCleaner Production projects in
Taiyuan CO2 reductions and health co-benefits
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Implementing a CO2 tax in China Welfare
analysis for 2010 including health benefits
Tax 80 RMB/tCO2
Welfare
Aunan et al., Benefits and costs to China of a
climate policy. Environment and Development
Economics 12 471497 C 2007
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Welfare analysis including health benefits and
avoided crop loss due to reduced surface ozone
(NOx- ozone crop link)
No regrets CO2 abatement 15 - 20
Welfare
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SHANXI Net costs of CO2 reductions (unit
US/tonCO2)
Aunan, Fang, Vennemo, Oye and Seip, Energy Policy
32 (2004), 567-581.
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Taiyuan study Six projects were analysed

• Four projects at the Iron and Steel Company
• District boiler house
• Coal briquetting factory

Mestl, Aunan, Fang, Seip, Skjelvik and Vennemo,
J. Cleaner Production, 13 (2005), 57-70.
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Measures in Taiyuan Annual values
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Concept of co-controlHu Tao Policy Research
Center of Ministry of EnvironmentalProtection
(MEP), China (Sept. 2008)

• Objective to maximize net benefits (benefits
  minus control costs)
• Total costs of all control measures
• Benefits of both air pollution and GHGs as well
  as other benefits
• Target both local pollutants and GHGs.
• Ways to actively control both GHGs and local
  pollutants

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Review of co-benefit development in ChinaHu Tao
Policy Research Center of Ministry of
EnvironmentalProtection (MEP), China (Sept.
2008)

• Stage 0, pre-co-benefit period local pollution
  control policy and climate change policy were
  considered independently without links
• Stage 1, Ancillary benefit or Secondary benefit
  period
• Awareness of ancillary benefits or secondary
  benefits of GHGs reduction
• Stage 2, co-benefit measurement period
• its realized that local pollution and GHGs are
  linked to each other and efforts are made to
  measure co-benefits

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Review of co-benefits development in China (cont.)

• Stage 3, co-control design period
• co-control policies/programs/projects are
  designed and proposed in order to maximize
  co-benefits
• Stage 4, co-control implementation period
• co-control policy and projects are designed and
  implemented
• China is going on the co-control policy during
  12th five year plan (2011-2015)

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Konklusjoner

• Mange studier har vist at tiltak som reduserer
  utslipp av drivhusgasser (DHG) ofte også har
  andre fordeler. Disse gevinstene er størst der
  det er store lokale og regionale
  forurensningsproblemer.
• Dette er tilfellet i mange utviklingsland.
  (Bedring i luftkvaliteten er gjerne det primære
  mål. Redusert utslipp av DHG er en bonus.)
• Økt forståelse for at utslipp av DHG og lokale
  forurensningsproblemer må sees i sammenheng,
  synes å gi bedre muligheter for å få
  utviklingsland med i klimaprosessen særlig hvis
  det er økonomiske insentiver (CDM?)
• Selv om det er store usikkerheter, er kost-nytte
  analyser nyttige for beslutningstakere.