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Transportations Impact on Climate Change Climate Changes Impact on Transportation

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PART 1 TRANSPORTATION'S IMPACT ON CLIMATE CHANGE. Summary of Final Report of WBCSD's Sustainable Mobility Project ... Example: Newark Airport. 25 ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Transportations Impact on Climate Change Climate Changes Impact on Transportation


1
Transportations Impact on Climate ChangeClimate
Changes Impact on Transportation
  • Presentation by George C. Eads
  • Vice President, CRA International
  • to the Business Advisory Committee
  • Northwestern University Transportation Center
  • Evanston, Illinois, November 1, 2005

2
PART 1TRANSPORTATIONS IMPACT ON CLIMATE
CHANGESummary of Final Report of WBCSDs
Sustainable Mobility ProjectFull results,
including the SMPs final report, Mobility 2030,
the modeling that I will describe in a couple of
minutes, and the documentation for the modeling,
can be found at http//www.sustainablemobility.org
/
3
The World Business Council for Sustainable
Development (WBCSD)
  • A coalition of 170 international companies
    united by a shared commitment to sustainable
    development via the three pillars of economic
    growth, ecological balance, and social progress
  • WBCSD members are drawn from more than 35
    countries and 20 major industrial sectors
  • WBCSD issues reports that are the responsibility
    of the entire membership also provides
    logistical support and structure for member-led
    sector projects
  • The Sustainable Mobility Project (SMP) was a
    member-led sector project

4
Sustainable Mobility Project Members
5
Transport sectors share of worldwide GHG
emissions (Data for year 2000)
Source IEA WEO 2002 SMP calculations
6
Transport-related GHG emissions by
modeWell-to-wheels basis
7
Transport-related GHG emissions by
regionWell-to-wheels basis
8
Levers for reducing transport-related GHG
emissions the ASIF identity
  • Emissions ASIF
  • Activity (volume of passenger and freight
    travel)
  • Structure (shares by mode, utilization factors,
    and vehicle type)
  • Intensity (fuel use per unit of vehicle
    activity)
  • Fuel type (GHG emissions characteristics of
    fuel)

9
Activity times Structure transport demand
10
Intensity times Fuel Emissions per unit of
demand
11
Two illustrative simulations conducted by the SMP
  • Impact of the near-universal adoption of
    individual technologies in reducing worldwide GHG
    emissions from road vehicles
  • What sort of combination of strategies would be
    required to return worldwide GHG emissions from
    road vehicles to their 2000 level by 2050?
  • Taking account of
  • Impact of growth of demand for personal and goods
    transport
  • Share of theoretical emissions reduction
    potential of technologies assumed actually to be
    utilized
  • Time required for technology introduction
  • Actual in use emissions performance of vehicles
    in contrast to performance measured by government
    tests
  • Time required for vehicle fleet turnover

12
Impact of near-universal adoption of specific
technologies
Note GHG emissions are being measured on a
well-to-wheels basis
13
Simulation 1 Assumptions
  • Diesel ICE technology (using conventional diesel
    fuel) assumed to have 18 fuel consumption
    benefit versus prevailing gasoline ICE technology
    during entire period
  • Gasoline hybrids assumed to have 30 advantage
    versus the prevailing gasoline ICE technology
    diesel hybrids, a 36 advantage fuel cell
    vehicles, a 45 advantage
  • Diesels and advanced hybrids reach 100 sales
    penetration (worldwide) by 2030 in light-duty
    vehicles and medium-duty trucks
  • Fuel cells reach 100 sales penetration
    (worldwide) by 2050 hydrogen produced by
    reforming natural gas, no carbon sequestration
  • For carbon neutral hydrogen, change WTT
    emissions characteristics of the hydrogen used in
    fuel cell case above
  • For biofuels, assume would be used in a world
    road vehicle fleet similar in energy use
    characteristics to the SMP reference fleet

14
Simulation 2 Hypothetical combined
technology strategy
  • Applied five technology increments in order
    shown (impacts are additive, but order matters)
  • Dieselisation. For light-duty vehicles and
    medium-duty trucks, rises to around 45 globally
    by 2030.
  • Hybridisation. For light-duty vehicles and
    medium-duty trucks increases to half of all ICE
    vehicles sold by 2030.
  • Conventional and advanced biofuels. The quantity
    of biofuels in the total worldwide gasoline and
    diesel pool rises steadily, reaching one-third by
    2050.
  • Fuel cells using hydrogen derived from fossil
    fuels (no carbon sequestration). Mass market
    sales of light-duty vehicles and medium-duty
    trucks start in 2020 and rise to half of all
    vehicle sales by 2050.
  • Carbon neutral hydrogen used in fuel cells.
    Hydrogen sourcing for fuel cells switches to
    centralized production of carbon-neutral hydrogen
    over the period 2030-2050 once hydrogen LDV
    fleets reach significant penetration at a country
    level. By 2050, 80 of hydrogen is produced by
    carbon-neutral processes.
  • Assumptions of effectiveness of technologies
    identical to those used in Simulation 1

15
Results for GHG emissions from road vehicles
Note GHG emissions are being measures on a
well-to-wheels basis
16
The five strategy elements just listed do not
achieve goal of returning road vehicle
well-to-wheels GHG emissions to their 2000
level by 2050
  • Two additional increments required
  • Additional fleet-level vehicle energy efficiency
    improvement. SMP reference case projects an
    average improvement in the energy efficiency of
    the on-road light-duty vehicle fleet of about
    0.4 per year. We assume that the average annual
    in-use fleet-level improvement rises by an
    additional10 (i.e., from about 0.4 to about
    0.6).
  • A 10 reduction in emissions due to better
    traffic flow and other efficiency improvements in
    road vehicle use.

17
Summary of transports impact on climate change
  • Transport sector worldwide generates between
    one-fifth and one-quarter of GHG emissions
  • Transport-related GHG emissions are increasing
    rapidly
  • Likely to take decades to return transport-relate
    emissions to their levels of 2000
  • Eventual reductions will result from a
    combination of
  • Changes in transport technologies
  • Changes in transport fuels
  • Changes in transport demand
  • Changes in modal mix of transport activity

18
2 CLIMATE CHANGES IMPACT ON TRANSPORTATIONNew
TRB Committee that Bob Gallamore and I are both
members of
Following remarks do not represent views of the
Committee. Committees first meeting was
October 20-21, 2005
19
Past emissions have already raised GHG gas
concentrations significantly
Source IPCC Third Assessment, Working Group I,
Summary for Policymakers, p. 6
20
These past emissions will impact earths climate
regardless of what is done to reduce future
emissions
  • Increase in average surface temperature
  • Observations collected over the last century
    suggest that the average land surface temperature
    has risen 0.45-0.6C (0.8-1.0F) in the last
    century (Source USEPA).
  • Climate models predict additional warming of
    about 0.6ºC without further change in atmospheric
    composition. (Source Hansen, et al, Science,
    Vol 308, p. 1431-1435, 3 June 2005.
  • Increase in sea levels
  • Sea level has risen worldwide approximately 15-20
    cm (6-8 inches) in the last century.
    Approximately 2-5 cm (1-2 inches) of the rise has
    resulted from the melting of mountain glaciers.
    Another 2-7 cm has resulted from the expansion of
    ocean water that resulted from warmer ocean
    temperatures. (Source USEPA)

21
One recent effort to identify potential
infrastructure impacts Metropolitan East Coast
Assessment
  • Assessment covered 31 county region around New
    York City 20 million people
  • Found that many infrastructure elements are at 6
    to 20 feet above current sea level and are now
    prone to flooding every few decades to a century
  • The projected sea level rise of 1-3 ft by the
    year 2100 will cause these same structures to
    sustain equivalent flooding every few years to
    decades
  • Flooding frequency will rise by factor of 2 to
    10, with a mean increase being a factor of about
    3 http//metroeast_climate.ciesin.columbia.edu/inf
    rastructure/Infrstr-website.PPT, accessed
    10/27/05

22
Current FEMA flood zone map for 31 county area
around New York City
This and next several slides from Jacobs, et al.
Risk Increase to Infrastructure Due To Sea Level
Rise Was one section in the MEC Regional
Assessment
23
Comparison of lowest critical elevation for
selected MTA bridges and tunnel facilities
showing predicted storm surge heights
24
Same data for selected PNYNJ facilities
25
Projected impact of sea level rise of to 2090 on
frequency of storm surges of different
heightExample Newark Airport
26
Occurrence of different surge heights over
different time periods at present and by 2090
New York MTA Facilities
27
Same information NY Port Authority Facilities
28
Why should US transport sector be interested in
understanding impacts such as these?
  • Transport infrastructure is very long-lived
  • Once put in place, transport infrastructure is
    very difficult (and expensive) to relocate
  • Current infrastructure planning is based upon
    assumption that while weather is highly variable,
    underlying climate patterns are stable
  • However, a change in underlying climate patterns
    can be expected to change the expected frequency
    of unusual weather events

29
TRB Committee on Climate Change
  • This study will focus on and emphasize the
    consequences of climate change on U.S.
    transportation and adaptation strategies. It
    will summarize possible consequences for
    transportation, such as from sea-level rise,
    higher mean temperatures with less extreme low
    temperatures and more hot extremes, and,
    possibly, more frequent and severe rain events.
    U.S. transportation options for adapting to
    impacts will be analyzed, including possible need
    to alter assumptions about infrastructure design
    and operations ability to incorporate key trends
    and uncertainties in long-range decision making
    and capability of institutions to plan and act on
    mitigation and adaptation strategies at the state
    and regional levels.
  • Source Detailed Statement of Task

30
Thank you for your attention. Any questions?
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