Vulnerability Assessment and Case Studies Neil Adger and Nick Brooks Tyndall Centre and CSERGE School of Environmental Sciences, UEA AIACC Training Workshop on Development and Application of Integrated Scenarios in Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Vulnerability Assessment and Case Studies Neil Adger and Nick Brooks Tyndall Centre and CSERGE School of Environmental Sciences, UEA AIACC Training Workshop on Development and Application of Integrated Scenarios in Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation

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Title: Vulnerability Assessment and Case Studies Neil Adger and Nick Brooks Tyndall Centre and CSERGE School of Environmental Sciences, UEA AIACC Training Workshop on Development and Application of Integrated Scenarios in Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation


1
Vulnerability Assessment and Case StudiesNeil
Adger and Nick BrooksTyndall Centre and
CSERGESchool of Environmental Sciences,
UEAAIACC Training Workshop on Development and
Application of Integrated Scenarios in Climate
Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Assessments, April 2002
2
Purposes
  • Review concepts of vulnerability and adaptive
    capacity
  • Review methods, data, and scenarios (climate and
    social) required for vulnerability assessment
  • Case example of vulnerability and the social
    science required

3
Defining terms
  • Vulnerability is a function ofExposure to
    climatic hazard resulting from climate
    variability and changeSensitivity degree to
    which a system is affected by climate
    stimuliAdaptive capacity ability of a system
    to adjust and take opportunities

4
INDICATORSMeasuring vulnerability
5
Vulnerability of whom and to what?
  • Vulnerability is context specific we measure
    the vulnerability
  • OF a particular system, region or group
  • TO a specific hazard, impact or outcome

6
We can measure the vulnerability of
  • a population group to drought (hazard) or famine
    (outcome)
  • an agricultural system to drought (hazard)
  • a coastal area to sea-level rise (hazard) or
    flooding (impact)
  • a country to global climate change

7
Risk and vulnerability?
  • risk hazard x vulnerability
  • This definition views vulnerability as socially
    constructed, not dependent on the geographical
    distribution of climatic or other threats
  • Here we are essentially talking about social
    vulnerability to discrete phenomena.
  • Vulnerability to climate change is a prior state

8
Social vulnerability
  • Depends on a systems capacity to adapt to change
  • Is inversely related to adaptive capacity (but
    may depend on factors such as sensitivity)
  • Is a useful concept when assessing the
    vulnerability of a clearly defined group or
    system to a specific threat

9
Hazard distribution
  • The likelihood that a system will be damaged by
    global climate change is highly dependent on
    (changes in) the distribution of hazards, as well
    as its vulnerability.
  • Should we define vulnerability more widely to
    incorporate the distributional effects of climate
    change overall as opposed to social
    vulnerability?
  • i.e. are we really interested in risk?

10
Overall vulnerability
  • Wider definition overall vulnerability is a
    function of
  • Exposure/hazard (climate threats)
  • Sensitivity (result of existing adaptation)
  • Adaptive capacity (ability to adapt in future)
  • Develop indicators for these 3 categories

11
Risk hazard (social) vulnerability
equivalent to
Overall vulnerability f (exposure, sensitivity,
AC)
12
Indicators of exposure to hazard
  • Measure probability of occurrence of a
    potentially damaging (climatic) event
  • We might use
  • Historical climate-related disaster frequency
    (assuming more of the same)
  • Model projections of either event frequency or
    suitable proxies for probability of occurrence
    (e.g. SSTs)
  • Weighting by event severity in addition to above

13
Historical climate-related disasters, world (from
CRED EM-DAT data)
14
Sensitivity indicators
  • Measure degree to which a systems physical
    attributes expose it to physical impacts of
    hazard
  • E.g. geographic location of settlements (flood
    plain, hillslope, quality of housing)
  • E.g. health of a population at onset of drought
  • Sensitivity related to coping range, robustness,
    resilience
  • Socially, geographically and environmentally
    constructed

15
Adaptive capacity (AC) indicators
  • Capture the following components of AC
  • resources available for adaptation
  • ability of people to deploy those resources
  • willingness to undertake adaptive measures
  • AC socially constructed but may be
    environmentally or geographically constrained
    depends heavily on socio-economic, political and
    institutional factors.

16
Resources determining adaptive capacity
  • Financial and natural capital
  • Availability of labour, skills, knowledge (human
    capital)
  • Access to technology
  • Access to markets (e.g. income diversification)
  • Distribution of resources poverty, inequality,
    equity issues

17
Available resources possible proxies
  • Financial capital income per capita, inequality
    indices, GDP
  • Natural capital groundwater, cultivable land,
    energy sources, sustainability
  • Human capital literacy, level of education,
    preservation of traditional knowledge (e.g. land
    management), number of graduates in science,
    particularly in climate/environment field
  • Technology investment in research
    development, renewable and clean energy sources,
  • Markets accessibility, openness of foreign
    markets, trade balances

18
Deployment of resources
  • Does infrastructure allow people to undertake
    adaptive measures?
  • Does policy inhibit or encourage adaptation, or
    encourage maladaptive practices?
  • Social capital how do people use formal and
    informal networks to their advantage?

19
Helping or hindering adaptation
  • Building codes tax (dis)incentives proxy
    percent of (new) settlements in vulnerable areas
    (maladaptation)
  • Economic policy does it encourage migration to
    vulnerable areas? Proxy numbers migrating
  • Self-determination do external factors such as
    debt and structural adjustment programmes
    undermine or constrain adaptive measures? Proxies
    related to debt impacts
  • Overall policy environment proxies percentage
    of policies that explicitly incorporate measures
    to adapt to climate change number and degree of
    support for agencies involved in vulnerability
    assessment or adaptation programmes.

20
Willingness to adapt
  • Do social or cultural factors encourage or
    inhibit adaptation (e.g. resistance to change)?
  • Proxy percentage of population adopting
    available no- or low-cost adaptive measures
    subsidised by government
  • People may be sceptical about government
    sponsored adaptation schemes if they dont trust
    government, or assume hidden costs

21
Data sources
  • Hazards disaster data from CRED
    http//www.cred.be/emdat/ (frequency, numbers
    killed and otherwise effected, etc)
  • Exposure e.g. Environmental Vulnerability Index
    (SOPAC) http//www.sopac.org.fj/Projects/Evi/
  • Adaptive capacity Human Development Report
    Indicators http//www.undp.org/hdro/
  • World Development Indicators from World Bank on
    CD-ROM (275 / 550) http//www.worldbank.org/data
    /
  • Above data at national level higher resolution
    data from national agencies or through collection
    of new data.
  • Vulnerability mapping projects

22
Web links 1.
  • http//www.ipcc.ch/pub/tar/wg2/ - Climate Change
    2001 Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
    (IPCC).
  • http//www.fivims.net/ - Food Insecurity and
    Vulnerability Information and Mapping Systems.
  • http//www.grid.unep.ch/ - UNEP Mapping Natural
    Hazards Occurrences and Vulnerable Populations.
  • http//www.sopac.org.fj/Projects/Evi/index.html -
    SOPAC Environmental Vulnerability Index.
  • http//www.sei.se/risk/workshop4.html - Stockholm
    Environment Institute International Workshop on
    Vulnerability and Global Environmental Change.
  • http//www.fao.org/docrep/W5849T/w5849t09.htm -
    Food and Agriculture Organisation - Establishing
    a food insecurity and vulnerability information
    and mapping system (Ezzeddine Boutrif).
  • http//www.oas.org/en/cdmp/bulletin/hazmap.htm -
    Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project, Hazard
    Mapping and Vulnerability Assessment Workshop.
  • http//www.clarklabs.org/10applic/risk/start.htm
    - Applications of Geographic Information Systems
    (GIS) Technology in Environmental Risk Assessment
    and Management. See especially Chapters 2, 3 and
    4.
  • http//www.sopac.org.fj/nuke/article.php?sid20 -
    EU/SOPAC project Reducing Vulnerability of
    Pacific States.

23
Web links 2.
  • http//ns2.resalliance.org/pub/www/Journal/vol5/is
    s1/art19/ - ecological indicators
  • http//www.uni-bonn.de/ihdp/IHDPUpdate0102/viewpoi
    nt.html - vulnerability, Kasperson viewpoint
  • http//www.uni-bonn.de/ihdp/IHDPUpdate0102/article
    7.html - vulnerability and African groundwater
    resources article
  • http//www.uni-bonn.de/ihdp/index.html -
    International Human Dimensions Programme on
    Global Environmental Change
  • http//www.uni-bonn.de/ihdp/vulnerability.htm -
    IHDP workshop report (Assessing Vulnerability to
    Global Environmental Risks)

24
Case study of vulnerability
  • Present day vulnerability to climate variability
    in coastal Vietnam
  • What are the determinants of social
    vulnerability?
  • Study scope what is vulnerability and how
    measured?
  • Methods in assessing vulnerability what do
    social scientists do?

25
Defining vulnerability to hazards
  • Vulnerability is the set of characteristics of a
    group or individual in terms of their capacity to
    anticipate, cope with, resist, and recover from
    the impact of a natural hazard.It involves a
    combination of factors that determine the degree
    to which someones life and livelihood is put at
    risk by a discrete and identifiable event in
    nature or society.
  • (Blaikie et al. 1994 p. 9)
  • Vulnerability is essentially about the human
    ecology of endangerment ... and is embedded in
    the social geography of settlements and land
    uses, and the space or distribution of influence
    in communities and political organisation.
  • (Hewitt, 1997, p 143)

26
Vulnerability indicators
27
Characteristics of vulnerability and their
measurement
 
 
28
Why does underlying vulnerability change? the
Vietnam context
  • Changing social and political processes
  • Rapid economic growth
  • Rapid demographic change
  • Future change in climate risks

29
Climate variability observed Vietnams landfall
typhoons 1900-1995
30
Location of Xuan Thuy case study area, northern
Vietnam
31
Farming system Xuan Thuy
32
Changing poverty and inequality as indicators of
vulnerability
33
How are inequality and vulnerability related?
34
Institutional adaptation observed
  • Coastal defence in the reform
  • Re-emergence of civil society for collective
    security
  • Spontaneous adaptation through mangrove
    rehabilitation

35
Coastal defences, Giao Thuy District
36
Collective action for water management
37
Labour movements for coastal defence
38
Vulnerability trends
  • INCREASING vulnerability
  • 1 Increasingly skewed incomes
  • 2 Increasing reliance on aquaculture
  • 3 Reduction in collective action by Communes
  • DECREASING vulnerability
  • 1 Decreasing poverty
  • 2 Civil society collective action
  • 3 Spontaneous adaptation and mangrove replanting

39
Vulnerability analysis - lessons
  • Vulnerability to climate variability is a dynamic
    social process
  • Current vulnerability is a good proxy for
    near-future vulnerability
  • policies implications ways to ameliorate
    vulnerability
  • equitable land and resource allocation
  • effective evolution of collective action

40
Links between scenarios and vulnerability
assessment
  • Social vulnerability different parameters and
    scenarios for different spatial scales
  • Vuln. as a fn (Exp., Sens., Adapt. Cap.)
  • Vulnerability scenarios more appropriate for near
    future / shorter time-scales
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