Economic Impacts of Salinity in the Central Valley

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Economic Impacts of Salinity in the Central Valley

• Sacramento Regional Water Quality Control Board
• State Water Resources Control Board

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• Richard Howitt
• Resource Economist, University of California,
  Davis
• Jonathan Kaplan
• Economist, California State University,
  Sacramento
• Doug Larson
• Resource Economist, University of California,
  Davis
• Duncan MacEwan
• Graduate Assistant, University of California,
  Davis
• Josué Medellin-Azuara
• Post Doctoral Researcher, University of
  California, Davis
• Nancy Lee
• Consulting Economist, Amherst
• Gerald Horner
• Economist, State Water Resources Control Board

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• Objective
• Economic Impacts of Salinity Accumulations in the
  Central Valley to 2030
• Geographic Scope
• Major Central Valley Watersheds
• State
• Economic Scope
• General Equilibrium
• Direct Economic Effects
• Major Sectors
• Non-market Economic Effects

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• Estimate the Economic Effects of Salinity in the
  Central Valley to 2030
• Assuming
• Current Policy Parameters
• Environmental
• Development-Water and Land Use
• Economic
• International
• Existing Hydrogeology
• No Specific Constituent Analysis
• One Year Project

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Central Valley Regional Water Quality Control
Board
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Sacramento River Basin
San Joaquin River Basin
Tulare Lake Basin
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Friant Kern Canal
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Delta-Mendota Canal
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Sacramento Basin REMI Model County Configuration
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Relative change in the shallow groundwater table
(0.46 - 0.58 /pa-- Shoups 2004).
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Saline Affected Areas (DWR 2001)
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Central Valley Production Model (19 Cells)
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Baseline Annual Animal Numbers by Basin
Basin Dairy Hog Cattle Broiler Layer
Sacramento River 36,014 6,270 51,228 130,690 21,347
San Joaquin River 623,896 5,138 67,246 4,156,572 8,618,585
Tulare 843,750 8,290 49,005 14,005,610 13,257
Total 1,503,660 19,698 167,479 18,292,871 8,653,189
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Total Economic Impacts

• Output
• Gross Regional Product
• Income
• Employment
• Population
• Labor Force

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California -2.148
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Decrease in Manufacturing Output 2030 (Bil 2000) Decrease in Manufacturing Output 2030 (Bil 2000) Decrease in Manufacturing Output 2030 (Bil 2000) Decrease in Manufacturing Output 2030 (Bil 2000)
Area Basin Region State
Sacramento 0.030 ----- -----
San Joaquin 0.069 ----- -----
Tulare 0.063 ----- -----
Total Central Valley ----- 0.162 -----
Rest of California ----- 0.203 -----
California ----- ----- 0.365
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Rest of California
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Central Valley
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Tulare Lake Basin
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San Joaquin River Basin
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Sacramento River Basin
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