Millenium Development Goals at Midpoint: Where do we stand and where do we need to go

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Millenium Development Goals at Midpoint Where
do we stand and where do we need to go?

• François Bourguignon, Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Stefan
  Dercon, Antonio Estache, Jan Willem Gunning, Ravi
  Kanbur, Stephan Klasen, Simon Maxwell,
  Jean-Philippe Platteau, Amedeo Spadaro

EC Launch, Brussels, 19 Sept. 2008
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Motivation

• Millenium UN Declaration MDGs as political
  impetus for development
• Breathing new life into the issue of development
• Reversing downward trend in aid of the 1990s
• Reforming the development compact (Monterrey
  2002)
• MDGs midway to the 2015 horizon rhetoric or
  action?

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Some impressive progress

• World on track for halving poverty by 2015 (with
  a 1990 benchmark)
• 120 million people out of poverty between 2000
  and 2005, or 2.4 per cent annual drop
• Between 2000 and 2005
• 2 million lives saved through reduced child
  mortality
• 30 million additional 6-12 children going to
  school
• 30 million additional families having access to
  drinking water
• Boys and girls in equal numbers in primary school

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But progress is highly uneven, and still to
slow in some areas

• Global poverty progress largely due to rapid
  growth in giant Asian countries China, India,
  Indonesia, Vietnam
• World still off track on child mortality, water
  and some other goals
• Strong disparities across regions and countries
• In effect, most developing countries are
  projected not to meet most MDGs
• Despite recent up-turn in growth, Sub-Saharan
  Africa lags very much behind
• Although necessary, growth alone cannot do the job

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Analyzing MDG progress at the country level

• Progress shaped by three factors
• Global economic environment
• Domestic policies
• For poorest countries how much and how well aid
  is delivered and used
• Causes for concern in the three areas
• Reinforced by recent development in global
  economy (slow-down, oil and food price increases,
  climate change, .. )

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Policy coherence key to the achievements of the
MDGs

• The MDGs as agreed in 2000 remain a valuable
  framework for development action to 2015.
• But there remain serious problems with monitoring
• No need to complement present MDGs with
  additional goals or targets,
• MDGs need to be integrated within a framework
  that supports growth with equity and
  well-designed sectoral policies.
• This has implications for all actors in the
  international development community

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Recommendation 1 The donor community must
deliver on promises on aid volume and improved
delivery

• Despite commitments reiterated in several
  instances, aid volumes have recently declined
• Current shortfall on commitments amounts to US
  35 bn a year

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Recommendation 1 The donor community must
deliver on promises on aid volume and improved
delivery

• Despite commitments reiterated in several
  instances, aid volumes have recently declined
• Current shortfall on commitments amounts to US
  35 bn a year
• Delivery to be improved in terms of
  predictability, rapidity of disbursement,
  coordination, harmonization, and bureaucratic
  demands.
• In countries with reasonably functioning
  institutions more use should be made of
  predictable budget support and results-based
  targets
• Monterrey, Paris, Accra,.. donors need to
  deliver

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Recommendation 2 The crucial role of domestic
policies in developing countries

• Link MDGs to the pursuit of shared growth
• strengthening economic and political
  institutions, governance, macro-economic
  management of resource flows (particularly
  foreign flows) and investment climate.
• One set of policies does not fit all countries
• But crucial dimensions include infra-structure,
  management capacity creation, regional
  integration

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Recommendation 3 Policy coherence at the global
level more important than ever

• Trade agreement
• Better regulation of financial system
• Barriers to unskilled migration to be lowered in
  rich countries
• Mitigation of and adaptation to global warming
• Peace-keeping and conflict preventing
  interventions
• Global governance no less important than creation
  of new global funds for health or education

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Recommendation 4 Social protection and insurance
to mitigate uncertainty

• Uninsured risk as an obstacle to efficiency and
  growth the poorest needs to be protected from
  consequences of major shocks
• Social protection instruments and protection of
  MDG progress to be developed both at national and
  international level
• Programs like Conditional Cash Transfer programs,
  public employment guaranteed employment schemes
  and new insurance products to be developed

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Recommendation 5 A special agenda for fragile
states

• Particular problems in countries with weak
  institutions (often due to actual or latent
  conflicts)
• Fragile states lag the most behind in all MDGs
• New aid model based on budget support and result
  conditionality cannot be applied to these
  countries.
• Need for new and imaginative use of combined
  political, technical, financial and sometimes
  military resources
• Need to engage with civil society and non-state
  actors

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Recommendation 6 Sustainable development and
sustainable MDGs beyond 2015

• Tackling chronic poverty will remain a priority
  after 2015
• MDG achievements will need to be sustained
• Implies to consider MDGs as part of an overall
  sustainable development strategy

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The special role of the EU

• EU's comparative advantage
• The EU as the worlds largest donor and a major
  trading partner.
• EUs leadership role in peace-keeping and
  peace-building
• EU's commitment to improved practice in aid
  delivery, through its "Code of Conduct on
  Complementarity and Division of Labour."
• Present agenda as a platform for EU engagement
• At the same time, much needs to be done to push
  this agenda forward.