FAO

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FAO
CGIAR
WMO
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GECAFS Vision
A food-secure future for those most vulnerable to
environmental stress.
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Fundamental Questions

• How will Global Environmental Change affect the
  vulnerability of food systems in different
  regions?
• How might food systems be adapted to cope with
  GEC so as to enhance food security?
• What would be the consequences of adaptation
  options for environmental and socioeconomic
  conditions?

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Key Terms

• Global Environmental Change
• changes in the biogeophysical environment
• Food Systems
• an interconnected set of processes and activities
• Food Security
• a state or condition underpinned by food systems

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Global Environmental Change Changes in the
biophysical environment caused or strongly
influenced by human activities
For example changes in
Land cover soils Atmospheric composition
Climate variability means Water availability
quality
Nitrogen availability cycling Biodiversity Sea
currents salinity Sea level
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Global Environmental Change

• Examples of human activities leading to GEC

Agricultural intensification Freshwater
extraction Fisheries overexploitation Waste
production
Deforestation Fossil fuel consumption
Urbanisation Land reclamation
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Components of Food Systems Key Elements
FOOD UTILISATION
FOOD ACCESS

• Affordability
• Allocation
• Preference

• Nutritional Value
• Social Value
• Food Safety

FOOD AVAILABILITY

• Production
• Distribution
• Exchange

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Food Security

• exists when all people, at all times, have
  physical and economic access to sufficient, safe,
  and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs
  and food preferences for an active and healthy
  life.
• (definition from the World Food Summit)
• emphasizes access for individuals, households,
  communities to food.

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GECAFS Goal
To determine strategies to cope with the impacts
of GEC on food systems and to assess the
environmental and socioeconomic consequences of
adaptive responses aimed at improving food
security.
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Achieving the Goal

• Improve understanding of the interactions between
  food systems and key socioeconomic and
  biogeophysical components of the Earth System.
• Deliver the new science necessary to assist
  policy formulation for improving food security in
  the face of GEC.
• These are to be undertaken simultaneously

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Global Environmental Change and Food Systems
Research
Conditions Scenarios
Vulnerability Impacts
Feedbacks
Decision Support
Current Food Systems
Adapted Food Systems
Adaptation
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Research Approaches

• 1. Conceptual Methodological Research
• Food Systems Concepts
• Vulnerability Concepts
• Scenario Construction
• Decision Support Systems
• 2. Food Systems Research in
• Indo-Gangetic Plain
• Caribbean
• Southern Africa

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Conceptual Methodological Research

• Develops a GEC science agenda that
• targets generic science issues
• improves understanding of the interactions
  between the Earth System and Food Systems
• integrates natural and social sciences
• adds value to basic science by underpinning
  applied science
• underpins regionally-based food systems research

Conditions Scenarios
Vulnerability Impacts
Feedbacks
Decision Support
Current Food Systems
Adapted Food Systems
Adaptation

• International networking approach
• Led by small, specialist committees
• Coordinated by dedicated Science Officers
• Specific funding applications, mainly to science
  agencies

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Regional Food Systems Research

• Develops a GEC science agenda that
• targets regional scientific issues
• relates to regional development needs
• interacts effectively with the regional policy
  making process
• encourages more support for the regional science
  communities
• provides contexts for conceptual research

Conditions Scenarios
Vulnerability Impacts
Feedbacks
Decision Support
Current Food Systems
Adapted Food Systems
Adaptation

• Regional studies approach
• Led by regional scientists assisted by GECAFS IPO
• Specific funding applications, mainly to
  development agencies

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Caribbean
Indo-Gangetic Plain
Predominant Diet Pattern Mixed, mainly imported
(majority) Roots/tubers fish (sig.
minority) Key Policy Issues Food security and
self-sufficiency Trade policies and
competitiveness Exporting quality produce
processed products Poverty in rural communities
Main GEC Issues Climate variability extreme
events Water availability Land degradation Sea
currents salinity Biodiversity loss Sea level
Main GEC Issues Climate variability Glacier and
snow melt Water availability quality Nitrogen
availability cycling GHG emissions
Predominant Diet Pattern Rice fish (east
IGP) Wheat/rice meat (west IGP) Key Policy
Issues Increased agric. production Limiting env.
degradation Improved socioecon.
conditions Reduced labour migration
Southern Africa
Main GEC Issues Climate variability
ENSO Climate mean values Water availability
quality Land degradation Biodiversity loss
Predominant Diet Pattern Meat
Maize/Tubers Mixed (significant minority) Key
Policy Issues Food security and
self-sufficiency Regional integration and
trade Rural infrastructure and market
access Disaster response and safety nets
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Research Relevance and Partnerships
Science
Socio- economic
Natural
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Research Relevance and Partnerships
Science Agendas
Development Agendas
Science
Socio- economic
Natural
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Research Relevance and Partnerships
Science Agendas
Development Agendas
Policy Makers
Resource Managers
Science
Socio- economic
Natural
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GECAFS Research on Decision Support Systems
Initial Workshop University of Reading, UK
August 2003

• The nature of DSS in general and the modelling
  tool in particular
• Types of output parameters needed by policy
  makers and at resolution
• Types of input parameters as needed by model
  designers
• Other aspects of DSS and modelling that need to
  be considered

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Activities since Reading Workshop

• Follow-up discussions with regions scientists,
  resource managers, policy-makers and donors
• gt reviews of information needs
• Improved definitions of other GECAFS conceptual
  research areas
• Collaboration with USDA established
• GECAFS/USDA DSS Science Officer in post in UF

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Decision Support Systems research questions

1. What is the best way to determine the information
   needs of advisors to policymakers, resource
   managers and other stakeholders regarding GEC and
   food issues?
2. How can DSS best be developed to help analyse the
   socioeconomic and environmental tradeoffs of
   adaptation options?
3. What is the best methodological approach to DSS
   development to optimise communication with
   stakeholders?

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Decision Support Systems development process

• Users must
• help define what goes into DSS
• help design the interface and information content
• play a major role in evaluating/refining DSS
• help develop educational materials for DSS
• Must link closely with scenarios exercises

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Gainesville Workshop GECAFS / USDA-ARS / UF
To establish the overall frame for the GECAFS DSS
project

• Specific Workshop Objectives
• ascertain the nature of environmental and
  socioeconomic information needed to support
  improved policy formulation for food security
• identify how DSS can be used to help develop
  and interpret scenarios of changed environmental
  and socioeconomic conditions at various spatial
  and temporal scales
• determine the types of information needed for
  developing DSS