CLIMATE CHANGE: IT IS NOT TOO LATE IF FARMERS ACT NOW

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CLIMATE CHANGE IT IS NOT TOO LATE IF FARMERS
ACT NOW
WMO/COST 718 ETWCF Meeting Geneva, 15-18
November, 2004
Lucka Kajfež Bogataj University of
Ljubljana Slovenia
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Weather, Climate and Farmers
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OBSERVEDCHANGE
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Observed Global Temperature Change 1861-2003
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Annual surface temperature trends for periods
1901 to 2000, 1910 to 1945, 1946 to 1975, and
1976 to 2000 (C/decade)
Source Folland et al. (2001)
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More than Global Warming
Summer 2003 in Europe
Changes in Extremes
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Regional temperature change 1900 to 2000
Models are based on physics and not history.
Match is because climate must obey the laws of
physics. The warming since 1950 is not natural
North America
Asia
Europe
1.0 0.5 0 -0.5
Temperature change ?C
2000
1900
2000
1900
2000
1900
observations
model natural factors
model natural human factors
Computer models versus observations finding a
human signal
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PREDICTIONS
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The SRES driving forces and storylines
Nakicenovic et al. (2000)
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IPCC Data Distribution Centrehttp//ipcc-ddc.cru.
uea.ac.uk Provides climate and related data,
impact and adaptation assessment with emphasis
on the needs of developing countries - climate
model projections and observed climate data -
socio-economic baseline and scenario data - other
environmental information (atm. composition, sea
level) - supporting documentation and guidance
material
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Hard copies available
http//ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk/asres/scatter_plots
/scatterplots_home.html
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South Europe and N Africa (Region 14) 2010-2039
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General Circulation Model
Climate change scenario
Regional climate model
spatial variability
Crop model
model uncertainties
Large area model
crop forecast for future
output processing
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http//unfccc.int/methods_and_science/impacts_vuln
erability_and_adaptation/items/570.php
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http//unfccc.int/methods_and_science/impacts_vuln
erability_and_adaptation/items/570.php
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Changes in rainfall with doubled CO2 (CSIRO model)
160
40N
40S
140
120
100
80

60
40
20
0
20
gt25.6
0.2-0.4
0.4-0.8
0.8-1.6
1.6-3.2
3.2-6.4
6.4-12.8
12.8-25.6
Daily rainfall class (mm day
)
1
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UNCERTAINTY
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Cascade of uncertainty

• CO2 concentration
• Global-mean sea level
• Global-mean temperature
• Regional temperatures
• Regional temperature extremes
• Regional precipitation
• Cloud cover
• Climatic variability / extremes

High confidence
Low confidence
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Cascade of Uncertainty in Assessment of Impacts
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IMPACTS
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The climate change affects on agriculture

• Productivity (quantity and quality)
• Agricultural practices (changes of water use,
  agricultural inputs -herbicides, insecticides,
  fertilizers)
• Environmental level (frequency and intensity of
  soil drainage -nitrogen leaching, soil erosion,
  reduction of crop diversity)
• Rural space (loss of cultivated lands, land
  speculation, land renunciation, hydraulic
  amenities)

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Several changing parameters impact agriculture

• a direct effect is the composition of the earth
  atmosphere CO2 and ozone (CH4, NO2 and CFC to
  have no impact on physiological processus).
• some indirect effects are climate parameters
  resulting from climate change temperature,
  insolation, rainfall, humidity
• other indirect effects are the side effects due
  to the climatic changes increase of the sea
  level, changes in ocean currents, tornadoes..

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Additional People at Risk of Hunger under the
SRES A2 and B2 Scenarios, (Parry, et al. in
Global Environmental Change, 2004)
200
180
160
140
120
Additional Millions of People
100
80
60
40
20
0
2020
2050
2080
A2 - Regional Enterprise
B2 - Local Stewardship
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Key impacts on wheat yields for different regions
N. England
0 -

• Yield

S. Europe
0.5
1.0
Deg C
N. India
Local food production ? Regional food security
? Global food security ?
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Why farmers in developing countries are more
vulnerable to climate change1) Impacts are worse
Coastal vulnerability
Closer to margin of tolerance
Economic structure
Poorer nutrition and health infrastructure
2) Lower capacity to adapt
Availability of technology
Institutional capacity
Know-how and education
Financial capacity
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Climate Sensitivity Functions of the US and
India Mendelsohn and Dinar (2000)
0
US Response Function
-0.2
Impact on Farm Value/Net Income (billions of US )
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
India Response Function
-1.0
-1.2
-1.4
-1.6
0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Temperature Change, oC
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MITIGATION

• no uncertainty on the need to stabilize GHG
  concentration in atmosphere
• need to initiate mitigation urgently

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Agriculture has many unique opportunities to
manage greenhouse gases
Reduce
Greenhouse gas emissions
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Opportunities for mitigationin agriculture

• Carbon sequestration (possibly increasing N2O)
• Land management (tillage, irrigation management,
  fertilizer management, cover crops, eliminating
  fallow)
• Land use change to grassland, forest
• Emission reduction CO2, N2O, methane
• Energy emissions (direct, induced energy use)
• Livestock enteric fermentation, manure
  management
• Bio-energy products, renewables (reduces energy
  CO2 emissions)

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GHG Mitigation Potential from Agriculture

• Sink Enhancing
• Management Practices
• Increase no-till
• Decrease summerfallow
• Increase hay in crop rotation
• Improve grazing management
• Increase permanent cover
• Increase shelterbelts
• GHG Source-Reducing
• Management Practices
• Improve nutrient management
• Improve feeding management
• Improve manure management

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REDUCE, REMOVE, REPLACE RESPOND
Reduce
Greenhouse gas emissions
Respond
The climate is goingto change requiring
adaptation
Agricultural GHG Management
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ADAPTATION

• adjustments in ecological, social or economic
  systems in response to actual or expected climate
  stimuli and their impacts
• ...to moderate damages or to benefit from
  opportunities associated with climate change

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Concept of adaptation in agriculture

• Adaptation refers to responses by
• individuals,
• groups and
• governments
• to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their
  effects
• to reduce vulnerability to adverse impacts or
  damage potential,
• or to realize opportunities
• associated with climate change (Dolan et al.,
  2001).
• Responses should be beneficial regardless of how
  or whether climate changes

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Adaptation Options

• Possible at various levels - farmer, economic
  agent, macro
• Potential and costs of adaptation - possibly
  through historic analysis of technology
  penetration
• Reilly and Schimmelpfenng (1999) show the
  relative speed of adoption of various measures

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Relative Inertia in Adaptation
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Climate adaptation should be iterative
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Adaptation options (technique needs)

• Development and adoption of new technologies
• Promotion of agriculture extension services
• Improving water management
• Improving farm management
• Diversification of income earning and employment
  opportunities
• Institutional planning and implementation
• Improving infrastructure, enhance adaptive
  capacity including investment and accumulation
  of capital.

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• Development and adoption of new technologies
• Mechanical innovations
• - irrigation
• - conservation tillage
• - integrated drainage systems
• Crop breeding (climate resistant varieties)
• - improved resistance to changing diseases and
  insects
• - heat and drought resistant crop varieties
• - use of traditional varieties bred for storm
  and drought resistance
• - investment in seed banks
• Biotechnology

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Biotechnology Splicing in a gene to raise the
max T of photosynthesis (tobacco with gene from
Arabidosis thaliana)
Genetically modified
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• Promotion of agriculture extension services
• key role in promoting agriculture
  productivity in developing countries
• Improving water management
• better water distribution strategies
• changing crop and irrigation schedules to use
  rainfall
• more effectively
• improving irrigation technologies
• water recycling and the conjunctive use of
  groundwater
• water price

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• Improving farm management
• changing farm production practices
• diversification of crop and livestock varieties
• replacement of plant types, cultivars and animal
  breeds with climate resistant new varieties
• altering the intensity of fertilizer, pesticide
  application
• modernization and improving farm level managerial
  capacity altering capital and labor inputs to
  reduce risks
• Diversification of income earning and employment
  opportunities
• alternative livelihood options need to be
  encouraged
• income diversification
• off farm activities (trading home produced goods,
  providing services)

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Institutional planning and implementation

• Institutional reforms (to achive decision-making
  structures that support long term planning and
  enhance adaptations to both short and long term
  climate impacts)
• The governments need to reverse declining
  investments in agricultural research and
  extension
• Improved training and general education of
  populations dependent on agriculture

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Improving infrastructure, enhance adaptive
capacity, including investment and accumulation
of capital

• The adjustment of capital (and labor) inputs can
• help farmers to make the necessary
  adaptations
• Removal of subsidies, which can, by limiting
  changes in prices, mask the climate change signal
  in the marketplace
• Food programs and other social security programs
• to provide insurance against supply changes

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What do we know about the connections between
mitigation, adaptation and impacts ?
All mitigation
Mix of mitigate/ adapt/ impact
No action
All adaptation
Cost of adaptation
less
more
(Holdridge diagram)
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Integrated Assessment Framework for Considering
Climate Change
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CONCLUSIONS

• Agrometeorologist should help farmers make
  transition from passive acceptance of climate
  change by equipping them to make an active
  response
• Both agrometeorologists and farmers should
  realize as soon as possible that

• The past may not longer be a good guide
  
• for the future.
• Adaptation cannot be a substitute mitigation