Application of NOAA/NWS/NCEP Model Products for Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion

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Application of NOAA/NWS/NCEP Model Products for
Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion
Jeff McQueen, Dusan Jovic, Binbin Zhou, Marina
Tsidulko, Perry Shafran Jun Du and Geoff
DiMego December 17, 2007
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NWS/NCEP Support of DOD Dispersion Modeling

• Provide Ensemble Products to Drive DTRA Hazard
  Prediction Assessment Capability (HPAC)
  uncertainty estimates
• Enhanced NCEP model products
• Testing a High Resolution Ensemble System
• Developing probabilistic verification
  capabilities
• Evaluate WRF-NMM turbulence field performance
• IHOP-2002, DIPOLE-1996 case studies
• Evaluate NCEP Model PBL performance
• Add PBL height verification to NCEP FVS
• Real-time high resolution WRF-NMM support
• 2006 Torino Olympics nests, 2005 Inauguration
  nest

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Additional NCEP products for ATD

• On-Demand Homeland Security/Fire Wx Nests
• On-demand real-time High Resolution WRF 2.66 km
  Grid Runs
• 26 pre-defined nests
• Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis system (RTMA)
• 2-D Variable data assimilation at the surface
• hourly analyses at 5 km resolution
• Analysis Of Record
• Downscaled from NDAS analysis to provide high
  resolution climatology than 32 km Regional
  Reanalyses

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North American Model (NAM-WRF)
North American Model (NAM) WRF run 4x/day at 12
km to 84 hours
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HRW Homeland Security Nests (26) WRF-NMM Model _at_
4 km
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HiResWindow Fixed-Domain 4 km Runs

• FOUR routine runs made at the same time every day
• 00Z ECentral Hawaii
• 06Z Alaska Puerto Rico
• 12Z ECentral Hawaii
• 18Z WCentral Puerto Rico
• Everyone gets daily high resolution runs if
  only if hurricane runs are not needed
• To be implemented in Q4FY07

http//www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/nestpage/
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WRF-NMM Hybrid Vertical Coordinate SystemNative
output to be available to tightly couple with HPAC
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HPAC multi-model simulationsFor Torino 2006
Olympics

• WRF MM5 Plumes
• near Torino Olympics
• Blue lines HPAC
• uncertainties w/ constant
• large scale variances
• Feb. 22, 2006 00Z release
• (Case 5)

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IHOP Accomplishments2007

• NCEP WRF-NMM (12 km North American Domain)
  launcher used to produce boundary layer outputs
• Reran May 28, June 5 and June 6, 2002 cases to
  produce time series files for all 16 IHOP sites

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DIPOLE PRIDE 1996
Dusan Jovic, EMC

• WRF-NMM V2.2
• 12/4/1.3 km nest
• NARR initial
• conditions

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WRF-NMM DIPOLE Nested Domains
4 km Nest and topography
1.3 km Nest and topography
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WRF-NMM DIPOLE 24 hour ForecastsNovember 9, 1996
at 00 UTC
4 km Nest Winds
1.3 km Winds
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WRF-NMM DIPOLE 24 hour ForecastsNovember 9, 1996
at 00 UTC
1.3 km nest 2 m Temperature
4 km nest 2 m Temperature
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WRF-NMM DIPOLE 21h ForecastsNov. 8 , 21 Z
12 km PBL hgt
4 km PBL hgt
1.3 km PBL hgt
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Ensemble Covariance Productsuse to define plume
uncertainty in HPAC
Binbin Zhou, EMC
http//www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF_avia/TEST/we
b/html/variance.html
EKE0.5(UUEVVEWWE) N UUE 1/N ?(
Umij - Uij )2 N VVE 1/N ?( Vmij - Vij
)2 N UVE 1/N ?( Umij - Uij ) ( Vmij -
Vij ) N WWE 1/N ?( Wmij - Wij
)2 Ensemble mean sensible heat flux Ensemble
mean latent heat flux U and V spread UUE, VVE,
UVE added to SREF operational files on Dec. 12,
2007
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SREF 30 hour forecast 12/13/07 15 UTC
850 mb ensemble mean wind and spread
850 mb UU variance
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SREF 30 hour forecast 12/13/07 15 UTC
10 m ensemble mean wind and spread (d)
10 m ensemble wind co-variance
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Met Ensembles for ATDHREF 12 km
Dusan Jovic, Binbin Zhou, EMC

• 9 WRF-NMM members configured for Eastern U.S.
• 12 km DX, 48 hour forecasts, 2x/day (00 and 12 Z)
• 9 WRF NMM members (1 control, 4 breeding pairs)
• Physics MYJ TKE, Betts-Miller-J convection, GFDL
  radiation
• Synoptic diversity LBC Breeding
• Breeding 12 hour forecast differences to drive
  IC perturbations
• LBC 3 hrly
• GENS 1-4 ET members for 2 NMM perturbed pairs
• GENS 5-8 ET members for 2 NMM perturbed pairs
• GENS Ctl for NMM control
• Output Files on pressure and native vertical
  levels

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Met Ensembles for ATDHigh Resolution 12 km
mean/spread
10 m Winds
850 mb Winds
10 m wind NMM-Ctl
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HREF Upper Air Verification
Perry Shafran, EMC

• SREF-32 km 21 member (solid lines) vs HREF-12 km
  9 member (dashed lines) at 24 and 48 forecast
  hours BIAS and RMSE

Temperature
Wind Speed
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HREF Surface Verification

• SREF-32km 21 member (solid lines) vs HREF-12km 9
  member (dashed lines) Diurnal Averaged BIAS and
  RMSE

2 m Temperature
10 m Winds
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Dispersion Ensemble Configurations1. One HPAC
run (Ens. Median/variance)2. One HPAC run for
each member3. One HPAC run for main clusters
Mean
AQFS
Cluster
SREF/HREF
Cluster analysis can chose a smaller set of
members statistically different from one another
that correspond to the daily weather pattern.
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NCEPs FVS Verification System

• Input observations are from NCEP operational
  PREPBUFR files which include 1) radiosonde
  dropsonde Z, temp, wind moisture 2) surface
  land marine P, temp, wind, moisture
  observations 3) ACARS conventional aircraft
  wind, temp moisture, and 4) Profiler winds.
• Verified Fields include temperature, wind and
  moisture fields on pressure and shelter levels.
• Recently added sensible weather (eg Visibility)
  , wind shear, and PBL height
• Grid verification of cloud cover using AFWA cloud
  cover products

New FVS On-line System Web-based MYSQL Database
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NAM-WRF PBL evaluationusing TEXAQS06 profilers
Marina Tsidulko, EMC
NAM PSD Longview Profiler SHV Raob
Use of profilers as ground truth for raob derived
Zi
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PBL Verification System
Model output
Observations
Eta
TKE PBL
PBL height
RAOB
Profiler
Mix Layer Ht
WRF
Ri PBL/no fluxes
Aircraft
Ri PBL/fluxes
GFS
PBL calculation
Grib Format
BUFR format
RiCR 0.25
Forecast Verification System
Statistics
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Mean PBL height for July-August 2006 provided by
ETA (black), WRF/NMM (green) and estimated with
RAOBS data for Western US
Mean PBL height for July-August 2006 provided by
ETA (black), WRF/NMM (green) and estimated with
RAOBS data for Shreveport LA
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Nov.2007 Diurnally Averaged Biases
Ensemble Verification Extensions Average errors
Bias Correction Impact
Jun Du, EMC
10m Wind
2 m Temperature

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Nov.2007 48 hour 10m Wind speeds
Ensemble Verification Extensions Ranked
Histograms Bias Correction Impact
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Nov.2007 48 hour 2 m Temperatures
Ensemble Verification Extensions Ranked
Histograms Bias Correction Impact
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Nov.2007 48 hour Forecast Temperatures
Ensemble Verification Extensions Statistical
Consistency Bias Correction Impact

• Ratio
• Mean Squared Error /
• Variance
• best 1 (Buizza, et al. 1999)
• SREF-21 improved
• WRF subset yields lowest statistical
  consistency compared to Eta subsets

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Future Work

• Continue to Evaluate 12 km Relocatable HREF
  System
• Add pbl LSM diversity to initial condition
  diversity system
• High Resolution Testing
• Test the addition of a 4 km nest to HREF NMM
  field experiments
• Evaluate with DCNET and URBANET data
• Provision of Products
• Provision of length scales to MDS for SCIPUFF
  sensitivity testing
• Continue enhancement of NMM-MEDOC converter with
  L3
• Development of a High Resolution Boundary Layer
  Analysis
• Complete evaluation of WRF turbulence PBL
  fields (DIPOLE-Pride, TexAQS-2006) for coupling
  with HPAC w/ PSU
• Improved PBL and probabilistic verification
  package