Food Security Concerns and Agricultural Policy: Their Environmental Implications for Indian Punjab

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Food Security Concerns and Agricultural
PolicyTheir Environmental Implications for
Indian Punjab

• R.S. Sidhu

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(No Transcript)
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Issues

• What are the changes in crop pattern?
• What is the relationship between production and
  procurement?
• What are the implications of high growth in
  foodgrain production w.r.t. ground water
  resources and soil?

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Gross value of crop output at 2001-02 prices (Rs.
crore)
  Rice Wheat Cotton Oilseeds Pulses Sugarcane Other cereals Aggregate
1967-68 2394 21036 10203 4571 7637 432 5872 52145
4.59 40.34 19.57 8.77 14.65 0.83 11.26 100
1980-81 18757 48365 17490 2677 6675 353 4111 98428
19.06 49.14 17.77 2.72 6.78 0.36 4.18 100
1990-91 37735 76602 29062 1150 7872 540 2272 155232
24.31 49.35 18.72 0.74 5.07 0.35 1.46 100
2001-02 51133 98217 19569 930 2006 838 2696 175389
29.15 56.00 11.16 0.53 1.14 0.48 1.54 100
CGR () 8.56 4.10 1.35 -4.58 -1.35 1.38 -3.17 3.53
Source Singh and Sidhu, 2004
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Cropping Pattern in Punjab ( of GCA)
Crop 1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 2001-02
Rice 8.27 20.49 30.50 35.74
Wheat 48.77 48.72 49.48 49.09
Maize 11.75 6.62 2.84 2.37
Gram 7.59 4.47 0.91 0.86
Groundnut 3.69 1.44 0.17 0.05
Rapeseed Mustard 2.19 2.18 1.12 0.70
Sugarcane 2.72 1.23 1.53 2.05
American Cotton 4.50 8.70 10.47 7.28
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Inputs use pattern in Punjab
Year Area under HYV Area under HYV Fert.Use Fert.Use Irriga-ted area () Tube-wells (In 000) Tractors Tractors Cropp-ing Intensity ()
Year Rice (000ha) Wheat (000ha) Total (000 Nutrient tons) Per Ha NSA (nutrient kgs) Irriga-ted area () Tube-wells (In 000) Total (In Thousands) No./000 ha Cropp-ing Intensity ()
70-71 130 1589 213 50 71 192 5.3 1.3 140
80-81 1095 2757 762 180 81 600 119 28.4 161
90-91 1906 3271 1220 290 93 800 289 68.5 178
02-03 2530 3375 1441 340 95 1150 451 106.8 185
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Average use of inputs for wheat and rice in
Punjab (Per ha)
Year/Crop Fertilizer use (kg of nutrients) Chemical Use (Rs. at 1980-81 prices)
Wheat
1981-84 156.70 57.31
1998-2000 224.00 202.27
Paddy
1981-84 180.50 113.69
1998-2000 182.80 267.75
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Share of Punjab state in total procurement in India (in thousand tons) Share of Punjab state in total procurement in India (in thousand tons) Share of Punjab state in total procurement in India (in thousand tons) Share of Punjab state in total procurement in India (in thousand tons) Share of Punjab state in total procurement in India (in thousand tons) Share of Punjab state in total procurement in India (in thousand tons) Share of Punjab state in total procurement in India (in thousand tons)
Year Rice     Wheat    
  Punjab India share Punjab India share
1981-82 to 1985-86 18145 41851 43.4 27650 46193 59.9
1986-87 to 1990-91 20426 48324 42.3 27051 42222 64.1
1991-92 to 1995-96 23928 61319 39.0 31208 51568 60.5
1996-97 to 2000-01 28373 80067 35.4 39922 73079 54.6
Source Economic Survey, Government of India,
various issues.
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Changes in consumption expenditure (Rs/capita
for 30 days at 1980-81 prices)
  Punjab   All India  
Items 1987-88 1999-00 1987-88 1999-2000
Rural    
Cereals 18.63 20.30 28.68 29.61
Pulses 5.02 6.18 4.35 5.08
Milk and Milk products 31.14 35.15 9.46 11.70
Meat, fish, egg 1.06 1.55 3.55 4.44
Vegetables 7.45 9.85 5.71 8.24
Fruits, fresh 2.66 2.60 1.78 1.89
All food 97.54 106.70 69.97 79.36
Urban    
Cereals 18.13 20.76 25.66 29.01
Pulses 5.43 6.88 5.86 6.66
Milk and Milk products 29.39 35.70 16.54 20.38
Meat, fish, egg 1.92 2.57 6.14 7.36
Vegetables 10.07 11.35 9.10 12.06
Fruits, fresh 4.64 4.75 4.35 4.58
All food 103.37 116.39 96.98 112.90
Source NSS data.
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Brief Contours of Agricultural Policy in India

• India
• Land reforms 1950s
• Public Investments on Irrigation Development
• Setting up of Agricultural Prices Commission and
  Food Corporation of India for procurement of
  foodgrains, 1965
• Green Revolution, 1966-70
• Land ceiling and distribution of surplus land,
  1972
• Integrated Rural Development Program, 1976-
• National Bank for Agriculture and Rural
  Development, 1982
• Setting up of RRBs
• Economic Reforms, 1991
• Implementation of WTO agreement, 1995
• Targeting of PDS, 1997
• Doubling flow of Institutional Agricultural
  Credit, 2005
• Encouraging Agro-processing, 2005
• Expanding Micro Irrigation, 2005
• Agricultural Market Reforms, 2005

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Growth and Variability in Output Prices
Year Paddy Wheat Barley Maize Gram Mustard Cotton (Am)
1980-81 113 130 105 105 165 250 304
1990-91 225 225 200 180 450 600 620
2000-01 540 610 500 445 1100 1200 1625
2004-05 590 640 540 525 1425 1700 1760
CGR () CGR () CGR () CGR () CGR () CGR () CGR () CGR ()
1980-81 to 90-91 5.98 4.93 5.39 4.56 8.51 7.35 5.84
1990-91 to 2000-01 9.28 10.43 8.70 8.88 8.61 6.22 10.32
1999-00 to 2004-05 2.45 1.70 3.74 4.54 7.21 9.14 2.12
Coefficient of Variation (de-trended series) of farm harvest prices, 1970-71 to 2001-02 Coefficient of Variation (de-trended series) of farm harvest prices, 1970-71 to 2001-02 Coefficient of Variation (de-trended series) of farm harvest prices, 1970-71 to 2001-02 Coefficient of Variation (de-trended series) of farm harvest prices, 1970-71 to 2001-02 Coefficient of Variation (de-trended series) of farm harvest prices, 1970-71 to 2001-02 Coefficient of Variation (de-trended series) of farm harvest prices, 1970-71 to 2001-02 Coefficient of Variation (de-trended series) of farm harvest prices, 1970-71 to 2001-02 Coefficient of Variation (de-trended series) of farm harvest prices, 1970-71 to 2001-02 Coefficient of Variation (de-trended series) of farm harvest prices, 1970-71 to 2001-02
Wheat Rapeseed Gram Barley Paddy Cotton Am Cotton Desi G'nut Maize
16.95 16.4 18.3 21.2 9.0 25.8 22.5 24.6 21.5
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Input and Output Prices Index for Wheat and Paddy
in Punjab
Year Output Fertilizer Chemicals
Wheat
1981-82 100 100 100
1991-92 176 126.68 205.10
1998-99 366.9 192.16 317.9
Paddy
1981-82 100 100 100
1991-92 203.7 112.6 158.3
1998-99 378.5 180.6 339.6
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Agricultural subsidies in Punjab (Rs 10 millions)
Year Fertilizers Electricity Canal Irrigation
1985-86 266 94 11
1995-96 567 693 30
1999-2000 1061 1939 65
2003-04 1088 807 37
as per calculations of Punjab State Electricity
Regulatory Commission. Source Economic Survey of
India and Punjab, various issues.
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Realisation of cost and level of subsidy on power
supply to agriculture
1991- 92 1992- 93 1993- 94 1994- 95 1995- 96 1996- 97 1997- 98 1998- 99 1999- 00
ACR () 10.44 9.39 13.81 22.27 23.83 16.34 0 0 0
Subsidy Rs. million 4664.2 6448.4 7706.5 7201.6 7226.2 9250.4 14701.9 16903.9 20161.8
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Share of different crops/enterprises and other
activities in the research budget of the
University
Year Research Budget (Rs. Million) Percentage of Research budget to Percentage of Research budget to Percentage of Research budget to Percentage of Research budget to Percentage of Research budget to Percentage of Research budget to Percentage of Research budget to Percentage of Research budget to
Year Research Budget (Rs. Million) Wheat rice Cotton and Scane Other field crops Horticultre Livestock and fishery Post harvesting Marketing Others
1980 41.5 16 15 12 12 16 5 1.2 23
1990 144.1 18 12 18 13 11 3 0.5 24
2000 547.1 19 10 12 12 12 4 0.7 30
2001 608.5 20 9 11 11 11 5 0.7 31
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Growth and Variability in productivity of
different crops in Punjab
Crop CGR 1965/66 to 2001-02 CV of de-trended yield 1970-71 to 2001-02
Paddy 2.72 9.08
Cotton 0.27 25.74
Scane 1.66 15.65
Maize 1.39 13.33
Wheat 2.76 4.88
Gram 0.25 19.57
Rapeseed 2.57 13.15
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Increase in proportionate area of the central
zone under water table depth of more than 10 meter
In per cent
Year Central zone Central zone South west zone South west zone
5-10 mt gt10 mt 5-10 mt gt10 mt
1996 69 25 47 8
1998 49 42 43 12
2000 41 53 50 9
2004 10 90 52 10
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Per cent area under different water table depths
in central zone
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Ground Water Status in Punjab
Rate of Exploitation () Blocks (in per cent of total) Blocks (in per cent of total) Blocks (in per cent of total) Blocks (in per cent of total)
Rate of Exploitation () Sub-Mountainous Central (Paddy zone) South West (Cotton zone) Punjab
Below 100 78 17 76 47
100-200 22 63 12 41
200-300 0 15 6 9
300-400 0 3 3 2
Above 400 0 2 3 1
Total Blocks 36 69 33 138
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Rise/ fall in Water table

• Sangrur 43 ?
• Patiala 33 ?
• Jalandhar 22 ?
• Amritsar 18 ?
• Kapurthala 17 ?
• Faridkot 13 ?
• Ludhiana 13 ?
• Ropar 08 ?
• Hoshiarpur-1 02 ?
• Gurdaspur 02 ?
• Hoshiarpur-2 05 ?
• Mansa 09 ?
• Ferozpur 17 ?
• Bathinda 21 ?

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Average water table depth (m) in different zones
Zones Measured Measured Predicted Predicted
1993 2003 2013 2023
Sub-montane 17.6 18.5 19.4 20.3
Central 11.1 16.2 21.3 26.5
South-west 6.8 8.9 10.9 13.3
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N, P, K Status of Punjab Soils, 1981 through
2002(In per cent samples deficient)
Nutrient availability Low Low Medium Medium High High
1981-90 1991- 2002 1981-90 1991- 2002 1981-90 1991- 2002
N (OC) 78 66 22 32 0 2
P 48 62 29 23 23 15
K 8 9 45 51 46 40
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Deficiency of Micro nutrients in Punjab Soils(
samples deficient)
District Year Cu Fe Mn
Ludhiana 1970 0 0 2
2004 2 7 22
Sangrur 1990 4 7 0
2000 0 18 35
Amritsar 1984 0 0 0
2001 0 4 12
Patiala 1985 1 4 2
2002 0 5 3
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Incidence of Diseases

• In 1970s
• Wheat
• -Yellow and brown rust
• -Flag smut
• -Karnal bunt
• Rice
• -Disease free
• Cotton
• -Disease free

• Present Position
• Wheat
• -New HYVs became susceptible to new races of
  brown rust
• -Flag smut minimized
• -Karnal bunt became wide spread
• -Other important diseases head scab, leaf blight
• Rice
• -Bacterial leaf blight major disease
• -Other diseases sheath blight, sheath rot, false
  smut, kernel smut
• Cotton
• -Leaf curl virus of cotton

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Incidence of insect-pests

• In 1970s
• Rice
• -Pest free crop
• Cotton
• -Cotton white fly was a minor pest
• -American cotton bollworm reported in localized
  areas

• Present Position
• Rice
• -Yellow stem borer and leaf folder are key pests
• -Others important are white backed plant hopper
  and rice hispa
• Cotton
• -Cotton white fly became key pest
• -American cotton bollworm became epidemic

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Incidence of Weeds

• In 1970s
• Rice
• -Echinocloa (swank) was predominant
• Wheat
• -Broad leaf weeds and wild oats were predominant

• Present Position
• Rice
• -Echinocloa is predominant
• -New weeds Ischeamum ruzosum (kanaki), Ceasulia
  axillaris (ghrilla), Sphenochlea zylancia
• Wheat
• -Phalaris minor is predominant and has become
  resistant to Isoproturon through continuous use
• -New weeds in some areas Rumex spinosus (jangli
  palak), Medicago denticulata (Maina)

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Share of Livestock in Agriculture (Rs crore at
1980/81 prices)
Year Agri. Livestock Agri Milk Prod. Exp. on milk and milk products at 1985/86p (Rs/capita) Exp. on milk and milk products at 1985/86p (Rs/capita)
Year Agri. Livestock Livestock 000 tons Rural Urban
1985-86 2036 944.8 2980.8 4035 39.36 37.15
1985-86 (68.3) (31.7) (100) 4035 (33.17) (28.43)
1990-91 2303 1271.3 3574.3 5142 40.96 37.65
1990-91 (64.4) (35.6) (100) 5142 (33.17) (29.86)
1990-91       5142    
2001-02 2876 2026.7 4902.7 7930 39.69 45.2
2001-02 (58.7) (41.3) (100) 7930 (34.62) (34)
The figures in parentheses in case of
expenditure on milk and milk proucts represent
percent of food expenditure.
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Factors affecting Milk Production
Year Milk Prod. (000 tons) Milk Prod. (000 tons) Milk Processing Capacity (000 lit/day) Coop. Milk collecting centers (No.) Per Capita Income (Rs at 1979-81 wholesale prices) Milk Prices (Rs/liter at 1980/81 consumer prices)
1980-81 3221 3221 950 2593 22588 2.82
1990-91 5142 5142 2090 5263 3416 3.74
2001-02 7930 7930 5535 5812 5111 4.14
CGR () 4.57 4.57 9.11 3.08 3.11 2.40
Reg. Coeff. (Dependent Milk prod.) Reg. Coeff. (Dependent Milk prod.) Reg. Coeff. (Dependent Milk prod.) 0.462 0.218 0.589 442.50
Reg. Coeff. (Dependent Milk prod.) Reg. Coeff. (Dependent Milk prod.) Reg. Coeff. (Dependent Milk prod.) (8.46) (4.28) (3.60) (3.83)
Elasticity of Milk prod. Elasticity of Milk prod. - 0.235 0.188 0.400 0.282
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Share of Livestock in NSDP of Primary Sector in
different regions/districts ()
  1980-81 1990-91 2000-01
Sub-Mountain Zone  38.08 35.52  38.65
Gurdaspur 40.27 37.78 40.02
Hoshiarpur 36.24 32.63 35.31
Ropar 37.8 35.77 43.09
Central Zone  34.32 32.26  38.56
Amritsar 37.47 32.69 44.97
Kapurthala 32.8 25.44 34.76
Jalandhar 38.2 31.25 35.04
Ludhiana 34.02 37.61 44.9
Sangrur 31.6 29.33 32.79
Patiala 32.14 31.16 34.4
South Zone  23.65 20.93  25.4
Ferozpur 28.08 21.35 27.22
Faridkot 26.89 20.49 25.1
Bathinda 12.4 20.96 23.75
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Determinants of Livestock Growth
Depend Share of Livestock in NSDP (primary)    Sub-Mountainous Zone Central Zone South Zone Reg. Coeff. (linear)
Share of Livestock 38.65 38.56 25.4  
Economic Factors        
Av. Milk Yield 4.26 4.68 3.84  
Crop Productivity (Rs/ha) 19773 25153 24430 -0.88
Real PCI (Rs at1980/81p) 5430 6866 6086 0.954
Institutional and Infrastructural Factors Institutional and Infrastructural Factors      
Milk Soc/100 sq km area 19 13 6  
Villages/milk society 2.34 2.23 1.91 0.59
Animals/Vet. Hospital 3077 3555 4257  
Road Density 126 125 84  
Urbanisation () 26 34 27 0.27
Literacy () 78 71 58 0.25
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