Data Sources for Tropical Cyclone Analysis, Calibration, Post-Analysis, and Warnings?

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Data Sources for Tropical Cyclone Analysis,
Calibration, Post-Analysis, and Warnings?

• Chip Guard
• Warning Coordination Meteorologist
• Weather Forecast Office Guam
• 27-28 April 2009

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WFO Guam Tropical Cyclone Warning Points Area
of Responsibility
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Tropical Cyclone Data Availability

• Numerous but limited data platforms
• Aircraft only during field experiments
• Synoptic sources
• ASOS FMQ-19, Aviation
• AMOS Handar
• Fixed and Drifting Buoys
• Upper Air
• University of Wyoming
• Secondary observations (synoptic)
• Ship Reports
• Various websites
• e.g., Florida State University
• Doppler Radar Data
• Antidotal Spotter Observations
• Historical Observations

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Land Surface Observations

• 24-hr (manned) 9 locations
• Limited (manned) 6 locations
• Secondary (synoptic) 10 locations
• Remote (manned) 3 locations
• Remote (unmanned) 7 locations
• Spotters 150

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Automated Surface Observing System--ASOS

• 1 on Guam
• 1 on Saipan

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HandarCommercial Port Guam

• 4 on Guam
• Mangilao at University
• Commercial Port
• Inarajan (inland)
• Merizo
• 1 on Rota (airport)
• 1 on Tinian (airport)

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AMOSKosrae Airport

• Only 3 of 18 original sites operational 1
  working
• Kosrae Airport
• Pagan (NOAA ship will repair it, hopefully)
• Ulithi (we plan to repair it)
• 3 were destroyed
• 2 sited but not installed
• 10 inoperative due to decay and/or logistics
• Program over 15 years old

AMOS
Airport winds
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Aircraft

• Left the western North Pacific in 1987
• For research, data is available before 1987 and
  during special experiments
• TCM-90, TCM-92, TCM-93
• THORPEX--T-PARC--TCS-08
• There are many improvements to the aircraft data
  since they were stationed out here
• Older aircraft data was valuable, but had
  problems it needs to be reassessed someday,
  especially for intensities data reassessment
  needed for climate applications

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Upper Air

• 7 UA sites in an area the size of the Continental
  US
• Use hydrogen with helium backup--reliable
• 2 per day 4 per day when a tropical cyclone is
  within 300 nm
• Outstanding quality

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Ship Reports

• 95 are accurate tendency to question ship
  winds e.g., its in a thunderstorm What is a
  typhoon but organized convection?
• Ship report coverage is poor data at best must
  be looked at as the minimum maximum or least
  intensity, not the maximum
• Statistically, the storms maximum intensity must
  be greater than that indicated by a few ships
• QS winds provide much wider coverage

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Fixed and Drifting Buoys

• 1 fixed buoy Scripps and USACE funded to study
  the effects of reefs on waves
• Moored Met Buoysnone
• TOGA Buoysmost are south and east of area most
  lack meteorological sensors
• DART Buoys (for tsunami monitoring)lack
  meteorological sensorsbeing evaluated
• Drifting Buoysnot routinely used now

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Doppler Weather Radar

• Mangilao, Guam (Andersen)
• Kwajalein
• 17th WS makes official
• position/intensity reports for the Andersen
  radar
• WFO Guam usually makes supplementary reports

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Meteorological Satellite Data Sources

• Direct Readout of MT-SAT imagery
• NRL Monterey Website
• NESDIS
• CIMSS University of Wisconsin
• CIRA Colorado State University
• Numerous other available websites
• We are largely a satellite-dependent warning
  agency

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Meteorological Data Types

• Satellite Imagery
• Geostationary Visible, infrared, water vapor
• Polar Orbiter Visible, infrared, MODIS
• Microwave
• Sources SSMIS, SSM/I, AMSU, AMSR-E
• 19GHz, 22GHz, 37GHz, 85GHz, etc
• TRaP
• Ocean Wind Data
• QuickScat, ASCAT, SSM/I, Windsat
• Altimetry Data
• JASON-1, JASON-2, ENVISAT

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Dvorak Intensity Technique

• Visual (1974) and Enhanced Infrared (1983)
  Techniques initially evaluated at JTWC
• Measures vorticity, shear, convective vigor
• Assumes
• The center location is accurately known
• The 24-hour old intensity estimate was correct
• Uses patterns and eye and cloud temperatures
• Uses T-numbers and Current Intensity (CI)-numbers
• Weakest area is from T3.5-T5.0 with no eye
• Improvements can be made with modifications to
  the CI-numbers
• Must take care that the technique is not degraded
  by mis-use likely will have to identify a
  microwave era
• Despite all the complaints, it hasnt been
  replaced in 35 yrs

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Dvorak Intensity Technique
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Microwave Data
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QuickScat and Tropical Winds

• We compare QS winds with island winds daily they
  are mostly accurate
• In the tropics, surface winds usually increase
  with convective rainfall rain-flagged winds are
  frequently representative of gusts
• QS winds are 8-min winds 30-kt QS is 35-kt
• 1-minute (US) wind
• QS winds considered to over-estimate below 35 kt
  and under-estimate above 35 kt
• QS saturates at about 60-70 kt
• Verification data is often hard to find around TCs

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QuickScat
Guam
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QuickScat
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QuickScat with Ambiguities
Using ambiguities requires dedicated training and
practice
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Other Conventional and Satellite Data Uses

• Rainfall Data We have numerous rainfall stations
  in Micronesia, but few are real-time TRaP data
  important for warnings for flash floods and
  mudslides
• Sea Level Data There are several tide gauges in
  Micronesia, but only a few with GPS sites
  satellite altimetry data is very valuable for
  open-ocean wave heights

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TRaP Rainfall Data for Typhoon Tingting
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Mudslides in Chuuk, Pohnpei, Kosrae Guam

• Long-chain clay molecules
• Critical Parameters
• 15 rain in 36 hr or 10 rain in 24 hr
• Continued 0.5/hr rain
• Forecast Parameters
• 10-12 rain in 36 hr or 6-8 rain in 24 hr
• Expected continued 0.5/hr rain

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Mudslides in Palau

• Short-chain clay molecules
• Critical Parameters
• 8 rain in 36 hr or 6 rain in 24 hr
• Continued 0.5/hr rain
• Forecast Parameters
• 6 rain in 36 hr or 4 rain in 24 hr
• Expected continued 0.5/hr rain

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Antidotal Spotter Observations

• Waterspout came ashore
• NOAA/NWS tropical cyclone wind assessments
• I provide a 2-hour spotter training course most
  spotters also take a 2-day Tropical Cyclone,
  Disaster Preparedness and Climate Workshop I teach

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Historical Observations

• Spennemann Book German Documents
• Spanish Documents
• Newspapers
• Padgett Summaries
• Typhoons Affecting Guam
• Damage photos
• Valuable for reassessment and climate work

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Decreasing Order of Tropical Cyclone-Related
Causes of Deaths in Micronesia

• Most deaths in Micronesia due to mudslides19
  (1997), 43 (2002)both were during El Nino
  periods
• High surf (before and after worst conditions)
• Wind
• Storm surge
• Flash floods

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Decreasing Order of Tropical Cyclone-Related
Property Damage in Micronesia

• Wind
• Storm surge
• Mudslides
• High surf
• Flash floods

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Costliest Locations in Micronesia

• Costs Function of valuation and vulnerability
• Vulnerability Function of Risk, Population, and
  Preparedness, Response Mitigation
• Costs in Decreasing Order
• Guam
• CNMI
• FSM (Chuuk, Yap, Pohnpei, Kosrae)
• Marshall Islands (Kwajalein/Ebeye Majuro)
• Palau