GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND FOOD PROVISION IN SOUTHERN AFRICA Explorations for a possible GECAFS

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GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND FOOD PROVISION
IN SOUTHERN AFRICAExplorations for a possible
GECAFS research project in southern Africa

• Martin Muchero, Pauline Dube and Jaap Arntzen
• Gaborone workshop, December 2004.

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GECAFS Research questions

• How might the projected climate change stresses
  further affect the food systems of Southern
  Africa who will be most vulnerable and which
  parts of the region?
• Which other key determinants of short and
  long-term food provision need to be addressed
  simultaneously with GEC?
• What measures can be taken to minimise GEC
  impacts and to exploit positive trends that may
  arise from these changes?
• What are the short and long-term feedback from
  measures adopted specifically to avert negative
  impacts or take advantage of changes in climate
  patterns?

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Tasks and methods

• Tasks
• Stakeholders and data sources
• Research needs
• Possible research issues for a regional GECAFS
  project
• Methods
• Interviews
• Literature review
• Review of statistics
• Review of info on GEC and southern Africa

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Report structure

• Classification of food systems and trends in food
  provision
• Main socioeconomic and physical features of
  southern Africa
• Main regional policy and research initiatives
• Research ideas for GECAFS themes

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Food resources and provision

• Food provision is therefore about ensuring that
  people take in sufficient variety of substances
  to maintain life and growth.
• Range of food resources, including cereals and
  other conventionally cultivated crops,
  vegetables, fruits and edible oils, Meat, milk
  and dairy products, fish products and other
  (non-conventional) products collected from the
  natural environment or cultivated.

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Stakeholders

• Producers
• Distribution-transport agents
• Food consumers
• Regional and national policy makers and
  implementers
• Regional researchers and analysts

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Food systems

• Food production systems determined by
• Type of food produced
• Method of production
• Production strategy
• Classification see table 1.
• Food availability determined by production,
  transport, distribution and storage capacity
• Food accessibility determined by availability and
  income generation, distribution and pricing.

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Regional trends in food provision

• Declining p. c. food production
• Under-utilisation of agricultural land resources
• Small size of irrigated food production
• Declining p.c. food consumption
• Maize is most important cereal. Sorghum and
  millet confined to driest areas.
• Difference between comparative advantage for
  crops and actual crops grown
• Government support has stimulated maize
  production

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Food trends continued

• Livestock production mostly in South Africa,
  Tanzania and countries such as Botswana and
  Namibia
• Sufficient grain storage capacity for regional
  production
• Transport and communication networks are poor
• Growing interest in regional food security ,
  specialisation and production increases
• Growing interest in linking food security with
  comparative advantages (e.g. soils, water).

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GEC and food production in southern Africa

• GEC impacts on production and vulnerability not
  sufficiently researched and documented.
• Changes in production potential of maize and
  certain trees.
• Negative and positive impacts on food production
  and provision (south -- north )
• Lower rangeland productivity in southern parts
• A decrease in rangeland quality in southern
  Africa
• Changes in water cycle and availability in
  combination with growing water competition
• Growing poverty in affected areas, restricting
  adaptive capacity

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Development-environment challenges

• Reducing poverty and hunger
• Accelerate economic and agricultural growth
• Increased access to drinking water and
  sanitation
• Political and economic stability
• Regional integration and specialisation
• Improved natural resource management
• More productive use of natural resources
• Regional specialisation based on comparative
  natural advantages
• Water scarcity
• International-regional commitments

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GECAFS challenge in southern Africa

• Southern Africa is unique for GECAFS as food
  insecurity is a growing problem in the region.
• Existing regional efforts on food provision are
  mostly short-term oriented, aiming to revive
  agricultural growth and development.

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Research needs theme 1

• Integrating long-term GEC concerns and impacts in
  the short-term struggle to improve food provision
• Detailed assessment of GEC on the major food
  products and transport and distribution systems
• Establishing an inventory of traditional
  knowledge on past GEC and vulnerabilities
  experienced then
• Vulnerability assessment (areas, groups,
  products)
• Shifts in production belts of crops and animals
• Potential for new income-generating products
• Changes in water availability and requirements
• Identification of areas with enhanced and reduced
  food production potential and linking these
  systems

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Research needs theme 2

• Identify and evaluate the possible adaptations
  mechanisms
• Identify and learn from past and current coping
  mechanisms employed by vulnerable groups in their
  day-to-day food supply systems
• Analyse and strengthen the capability of
  communities and countries to adapt as much as
  possible
• Identify the most suitable level at which each
  adaptation should be carried out.

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Research needs theme 2 continued

• Data generation and dissemination
• Monitoring and early warning systems (climate,
  local production, regional and global markets)
• Focused information on adaptation options
  available including research on alternative crops
  or livestock species
• Vulnerability assessments (areas, groups)
• Dissemination of information-data
• Wide range of agricultural and non-agricultural
  adaptations

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Research needs theme 3

• Possible environmental impacts of adaptations
  include
• Changes in biodiversity due to GMO and extending
  the agricultural frontier
• Agricultural pollution associated with use of
  fertiliser and pesticides
• Water logging and salination due to irrigation
• Land degradation due to agricultural pressure and
  use of less suitable land
• Increase water scarcity due to irrigation.

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Research issues Theme 3 continued

• Development impacts include
• Extra costs of agricultural production due to GEC
• Changes in consumer patterns and loss of economic
  access for those engaged in food
  production/processing
• Extra costs of food imports
• Mobilisation of international funds for
  mitigation/ adaptation measures
• Future of food aid
• Over-exploitation of resources
• Intense competition for resources in favoured
  regions in response to developed intra-regional
  trade

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Possible GECAFS projects in region

• Project idea 1 in southwest/central part of
  southern Africa where production potential is
  adversely affected by GEC.
• Research issues
• GEC impact on food production and livelihoods
• Adaptation mechanisms and their impacts
• Project idea 2 located in north-western parts
  with an enhanced production potential
• Research issues
• Expected positive impact on food production
• Shifts in crop and animal production belts

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Proposed GECAFS projects in southern Africa

• The projects 1 and 2 would be linked by
  transport, trade and policy issues, including
  regional integration and specialisation (project
  3).
• Project 3 Regional agricultural trade
• Location selected countries region-wide (SADC)
• Research issues
• Regional transport and food distribution networks
• Regional food security and reserves
• Policies and governance
• Regional specialisation, integration and trade