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What caused the Sacramento River fall Chinook stock collapse?

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Title: What caused the Sacramento River fall Chinook stock collapse?


1
SALMON
2
Salmonid Life Cycle
escapement
Freshwater
Marine
Estuarine
3
Pacific Salmon Range Inland to the Seaand Back
4
(No Transcript)
5
Collapse?
6
Chinook Salmon Harvest and Returns (Fall Run) to
the Sacramento River System, 1983-2007
66000
2008
2007 90,000
Conservation target 122,000 180,000
7
Salmonid Life Cycle
2007/2008 ?
escapement
(Fall)
Freshwater
Marine
(2-3 Summers)
(Winter)
(May/June)
(Spring)
Estuarine
2004/2005 brood years
Where in the life cycle did abundance become
anomalously low?
If/where/when did environmental conditions become
poor? What other
factors?
8
Conceptual Approach
2004
2004/5
2005
9
Things went wrong between entering the bay and
recruitment to the fishery at age 2
  • Avg. Calculation
  • Parents 70-07
  • jacks 70-07
  • Adults 70-07
  • Chipps I. 76-07
  • Hatchery 90-07
  • FRH fract. of 00 BY

10
California Current and Upwelling
E.g., Pt. Arena/Pt. Reyes Upwelling Cell
11
Influences on Central California
  • Influences
  • Temporal variation oceanographic seasons
  • Spatial variation California Current, for
    example
  • Short-term weather events
  • Inter-annual variation (El Nino,
    1997-1998)
  • Decade-scale variation Pacific Decadal
    Oscillation
  • Decade to century-scale variation global
    warming
  • Deepwater Canyons

Hydrographic Zones separated by black dashed
lines 1) Monterey Bay (0-20km offxhore) 2) a
Coastal Upwelling Zone 20-52km offshore 3) the
Coastal Transition Zone (52-170km offshore) and
4) the California Current (170-300km offshore).
http//www.mbnms-simon.org/docs/project/100190_rep
ort.pdf
12
Coastal Upwelling
Oregon
N. California
13
CA Current was unusual in 2005
Seabird nesting
Sea lion foraging
Juvenile fish abundance
Emaciated whales
14
Sea Surface Temperatures Off Central CA
San Francisco Bay
cold
warm
15
Condition Factor of Juvenile Chinookin SF Bay
and GOF
1995-2005 avg.s
2005
16
Conclusion - Proximate Cause
  • In the Spring of 2005 and 2006 SRFC entered ocean
    under poor ocean conditions (upwelling and SST)
  • Normal food chain did not develop and instead of
    feast they found famine
  • Starvation mortality resulted in low survival to
    age 2 or older
  • Therefore we attribute the proximate cause of
    collapse to poor ocean conditions

If there is no upwelling there is no
phytoplankton no zooplankton growth, and
basically you have not food chain that develops,
because it all depends on the upwelling. Bill
Peterson. Newport OR
17
Brood Year 2005/Escapement 2008
  • No significant impacts to the parents or eggs.
  • Possible impact of unusually high water flows,
    potentially carrying contaminants, but unclear.
  • Record level water exports, but unsure if its
    timing with salmon migration would have an
    impact.
  • Budget constraints led to direct release of
    hatchery salmon without time to imprint.
  • Favorable estuary conditions.
  • Ocean similar to 2005 but more extreme
    conditions restricted to Central CA rather that
    west coast wide. OR and WA escapements actually
    improved!
  • Auklets reproductive failure
  • Krill sparse
  • Juvenile rockfish low
  • No upwelling in May began again in June.

18
What is the role of freshwater factors- habitat,
hatcheries, etc?
19
Exports of Freshwater
20
Hatcheries reduce diversity
  • Simplify and standardize the environment
  • High correlation in survival among hatcheries
  • High variation in survival as natural environment
    lines up or fails to line up with hatchery
    operations
  • Domestication selection for behavioral
    deficiencies
  • Off-site release promotes straying and genetic
    homogeneity and reduced life-history diversity
    w/in runs

fry
eggs
juveniles
21
dams
  • Habitat Degradation
  • Reduced life-history diversity w/in and among runs

levees
armoring
22
Conceptual Model
  • Declining fw habitat productivity due to habitat
    loss and degradation
  • Constant hatchery production once started
  • Declining fitness due to domestication selection
    in hatcheries, straying and habitat degradation
  • Increasingly variable climate with global warming
  • Population abundance driven by natural hatchery
    production modulated by declining fitness and
    ocean climate
  • Sustainability depends upon stabilizing N, F and C

now
future
23
  • 2 years of a weakened ocean current
    nutrient-pumping system have combined with
    longstanding poor in-river conditions, most
    notably low or impaired flows, very poor water
    quality and high water temperatures to wreak
    havoc with salmon survival throughout their
    lifecycle. Zeke Grader, PCFFA

24
What is the role of Ocean Observing Systems in
Salmon Management?
25
CA Current was unusual in 2005
Seabird nesting
Sea lion foraging
Juvenile fish abundance
Emaciated whales
26
(No Transcript)
27
Ocean Observing Systems Salmonid Ocean Food Web
Approach
28
Remote Sensing Technologies Suited for Food Web
Research
Moorings
Food Web Structure (Krill)
Satellites
HF Radar
29
4 Oceanographic Survey Lines (Transects)
and Salmonid River Systems of Northern California
  • 4 surveys to date (Sept.-
  • Dec. 2008)
  • Zooplankton sampling
  • with ring net _at_ 5 stations
  • Continuous observations
  • (between stations) of birds
  • and mammals
  • Hydrographic/atmospheric
  • measurements

30
Oregon Coho Survival and Copepod Community
Structure
WT Peterson, unpubl.
31
Examples of Time-Series Products from Monthly
Sampling on a Survey line (Line 67) off Monterey.

MBARI, unpubl.
32
Variability n the abundance of juvenile Widow
(wid) and Shortbelly (sby) Rockfish in
central-northern California, 1983-2005
S. Ralston and J. Field, unpubl.
33
A Conceptual Model Ocean Warming
Ocean Warming/Climate Change
Wind (Timing, Intensity)
Upwelling (Relaxation) Events
Circulation/Transport
Sea Level
SST
1o Productivity, Diatom Index
Zooplankton/Krill Timing/Abundance
Auklet Phenology, Reproductive Success
Rockfish Parturition Dates, Biomass, Condition
Salmon Catch, Escapement Sacramento River
Murre Phenology, Reproductive Success
34
2009 Conditions
Oct 08 Feb 09 negative SST dominated Feb
April 2009 negative anomalies weakened Since May
2009, SST increased
35
What can be done to stabilize the populations and
fishery?
In general, rebuild wild populations and provide
opportunity for increased diversity
  • Recommendations
  • Hatchery reforms
  • Manage natural populations to increase diversity
  • Habitat restoration
  • Ecosystem Based Management

36
RESTORE
It is a matter of serious regret that our
choicest and most valued fish, the..salmon, is
annually decreasing and the supply for
exportation and home consumption is diminishing.
Unless salmon that now home in our waters are
protected and fostered as a nucleus for increase,
our rivers will become barren of this most
desired fish.
- Report of the Commissioners of Fisheries
of the State of CA 1886
http//www.nature.org/popups/features/salmon_overv
iew.html
37
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
38
(No Transcript)
39
Oregon Copepod Species Richness is Relation to
the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the
Multivariate El Nino Index (MEI), 1996-2008
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